Posted Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:12 pm GMT by unluckyjoe
I have been getting killed the last month by people getting these miracle rivers and runner runners. Not to mention they have been crazy to call my bets in the first place given the pot odds, their hands, and chip counts. This of course has been due a lot to myself grabbing a signicant amount of their chips in to the pot. It has happened enough to blow away the variance (if it was long term) though 3 weeks is infinitely too small a sample. MTT, no limit is the game. I am now looking to possibly alter my play or at least evaluate it in case I am in error. I am of course complaining about luck. It appears to me that I lose when I have the better hand. It seems luck is only hurting me and not saving me. The alternative is to tighten my game. I think this would almost destroy my game though. How could you afford to lay down a 10 to 1 favorite? How often should I lay down a better hand? I am not misjudging my others players. Most of the time I know if they will call my all in or not.
So the questions are: in MTT at what odds percent would you thrown down a better hand at after the flop, and after the turn? The assumption is that you have a single maniac or just a poor player that does not realize the trouble they are in. The second question is how far would you go, early in a 5 table tourn,nl, when pushed but you know you have the better hand? Being knocked out by luck is still being knocked out.
Thanks for any replies..
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Posted Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:30 pm GMT by suitedaces84
That's a problem with MTTs. To win you have to win several big hands. To survive an MTT you have to be right everytime, one of your oppoents only has to be right once in order to put you out. The odds you winning everytime (even if you are a favorite when all the chips are in) are not good.
Posted Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:49 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I don't know what to tell you except that bad beats happen; and if you start folding the hands where you're ahead, you might as well quit.
I'm not much of a tournament player except for the occasional SnG. Yesterday, I played 4 of them, and I was 0 for 4. In every single one, I was either crippled or knocked out on a hand where I was at least a 3:1 favorite, and one I was favored 9:1.
Shake it off, pray statisitics isn't just a load of sh!t and get back on the horse.
Posted Tue Apr 12, 2005 2:19 pm GMT by unluckyjoe
Thanks, those are my thoughts as well but the table talk from other players (post games), not to mention the entry fees lost, are annoying factors. I think I will also play a little more non tourn games then usual. hopefully the mighty gods of stats and variance will at least attmept to even out.
Posted Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:34 am GMT by Muck
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | That's a problem with MTTs. To win you have to win several big hands. To survive an MTT you have to be right everytime, one of your oppoents only has to be right once in order to put you out. The odds you winning everytime (even if you are a favorite when all the chips are in) are not good. |
I was intending to start a thread asking this question.
“Is it possible for a player to manage consistent success in MTTs?”
In the cheap £2 and £5 tourneys I’ve made a couple of good wins and get double my money back (top 20) about 1 in 4. But I’m barely making anything in the long run.
In the £10 games I’m down just because the players are slightly better. This means I can’t get as much of an edge when I gamble and the closer odds build up until I’m outdrawn.
So is the consensus “don’t bother with tourneys if you want to make money, stick to cash games”?.
Posted Wed Apr 13, 2005 10:07 am GMT by suitedaces84
| Muck wrote: | | So is the consensus “don’t bother with tourneys if you want to make money, stick to cash games”?. |
That's my take on the subject.
Posted Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:18 pm GMT by age_of_sages
You can make money consistently in SnG's, but MTT's just require so much luck that you can't win them conistently. Of course if you do take a big one down, that'll pay for many more down the road, but my thoughts are it's a break even scenario at best if that's all you play.
I view MTT's more as a gambling/fun kinda thing. I play about 2-3 a week and that's my time to try crazy things and have a bit of fun and hopefully hit it big. Other than that I just play very solid at the cash games.
Posted Thu Apr 14, 2005 4:53 pm GMT by Skribbles
I think the complete opposite. MTTs are the only place I make money. They definitly are not consistent, but you only need 1 win every couple months to make it worth it. I play FL, NL, SnGs and Stud but cannot consistently win at any of them. I have ridiculously bad swings in all games that I always end up even money. I'll throw $10 or $20 into a NL Hold'em or a Stud Hi / Lo and take my chances. I've won 2 NL MTTs and 3 other final tables, winning me a low of $150 or so to a big take of $6600. With the stud hi/lo (very easy game) I've won 3 of the 8 MTTs I've played in (minimum of 150 people) and had 1 other final table.
Just my opinion though... and if I don't cash out my winnings right away, I piss it away at cash tables.
Posted Sat Apr 23, 2005 9:26 pm GMT by zeroswarm
I've played a few mtts but the best I have done is come 4th in one. I really think there is so much luck involved in winning these types of tournaments that even if your the best player in the world there is no guarantee you will even get in the money.
I agree on the fact that you only need the odd good result to make money out of them, but personally speaking my luck usually runs dry before I can get any result atall.
Posted Tue May 03, 2005 10:17 pm GMT by titans4ever
I do not like to get involved in a big hand early in a MTTs. You can stick around for a long time by buying blinds and stealing pots on the flop alone. You said it yourself a runner, runner will make you sick and a short night for playing. I like to start to take calculated chances after I get a feel of the table and who can be pushed out of a hand or plays really tight.
MMT require you to be more aggressive and not just always wait for the great hands to come to you. You need to get reads on the players on the table quickly and take advantage of the ones you can and stay away from others. I think bluffing becomes a slightly more important factor. Example, you may raise preflop with a AJ suited instad of calling like some books will tell you to do. You get nothing to help you on the flop but you still shoot out with a bet to represent that the flop did not matter and you still have a hand worth raising.
I don't sting hand out to the showdown as often in a MTT just because your hand is only as good as the cards on the table and it can take just one to ruin you.
It is a completely different style of play than open tables when you can just reach in your pocket for more chips.
I do very well in MTT by applying pressure on my opponents and taking the hand after the flop or on the turn. In open tables I get called and win/lose more hands at the showdown than I ever see in a MTT. If people lose they just pull out a wad of bills and gets more chips and keep going. You can never apply the pressure of this is the last hand for the night if I go all-in. They just see a big pot and go for it just because they can.
You can be great at MTT and average at open tables or vise versa.
Posted Fri May 06, 2005 10:40 am GMT by DocHolliday
Greetings...
About six months ago, I started having the worst luck of my life at this game, both in ring games and tourneys. It lasted until about 2 months ago. I took time out and gave it thought and evaluated my play and I learned that most of the time, I would play good cards and when I lost with them consistently, I would tilt and piss away whatever I had left. I still have a little problem with that, but I have tightened up my game considerably and stopped making the looser calls that used to get me in trouble. The results are simply amazing. I placed my first big tourney win last week in a $10 tourney, netting 2nd place out of 1600 and $2500. Then I played a $100 tourney and netted 16th place out of 280 and $400. My live games have picked up well, as I've doubled those winnings since. You're still have those crazy idiots that call a raise from the small blind with 35s and river a gutshot straight against your made set of jacks on the flop, and you're gonna run into losing with a set to a higher set or flush, both of which happened today or I'd be up another $1000. You gotta push the strong hands and lay off the weaker hands, even if it means losing a few hands in a row. It will come back to you....if you can stay positive.
Bill
Posted Sat May 07, 2005 10:44 am GMT by Zig
Ive been playing in live 100p MTT's 4-5 times a week, so I have a bit of experience here to draw on. 
What makes it even more difficult is that this is a free league, costs nothing to play apart from putting your pride on the line. This of course, allows for those to chase with nothing to lose.
I've reached the final table a few times over a month of play - and on average so long as I apply myself - I can ensure getting down to the final 3 tables. Usually around here, the luck is needed.
After that, the blinds are so big - it becomes a crapshoot. I've lost very badly to hands that shouldnt have played, been rivered countless times, etc...it happens. Lost AA to KA, KK to 4 suited cards on the board....you name it - this stuff happens in real life I can confirm that!
All I can say is - keep to your game and you will see where your consistency gets you - it will only carry you so far before some luck is definitely needed...you gotta catch some cards late in the tourney or you're in real trouble. Some of my tactics:
I try never to go allin preflop or even after the flop (unless you have the nuts and are bet into) - Always protect some chips!
Your goal is to make final table, that's it. Don't feel like you need to be knocking people out left right and center - I've reached final tables by winning as few as 5 hands, mucking the rest....so pick your fights carefully.
If you reach that point that YOU have to go allin soon - pick that carefully too - you'll have about 3 or 4 hands to choose from depending on position, preflop bets, and player stacksizes....timing is important - dont throw all your chips in when the chip ldr is BB and costs him nothing to call - unless you also WANT him to call. (with your high pockets)
If you have a weaker hand - mid connectors, etc...then pressure a smaller stacked BB, etc...boils down to always picking that last fight as carefully as you can - you need to double or triple up to advance.
Point is, don't wait until you HAVE to go allin - try and forsee that 4 or 5 hand range where you will need to pick an allin and go for it.
As we speak I am currently experiencing the bad beats and rivers...one of my memorable ones the other day was I have J Q on the BB, flopped a straight rainbow T K A. Guy calls me allin - He had Kx, who am I to argue?
Turn was a paired K, followed by the paired T - giving him a boat....that hurt like crap! I was out. But there is no defense to that - it's just poker. However, I'll take that scenario and choose my straight to play every time after the flop.
My buddy and I play this league several days every week - trust me we both come up with some laughable beats when we're knocked out....but at least the beer still tastes good.
Posted Thu May 19, 2005 5:48 am GMT by AAceman
unlucky joe, the answer is right in front of you.
Change your name to lucky joe...
There u can thank me by a cash deposit on my account of your future winnings.
Posted Thu May 19, 2005 9:52 am GMT by titans4ever
Another thing my friends and I were discussing was the phrase, "If it wasn't for luck, I'd win every time."
We looked at it from a tourney persective and realized that you can't win every tourney you enter and eventually you will get blinded out or lose a hand or two to get knocked out. The top cards leave you for an hour or two, whatever. You need to consistently make money to stay ahead of the blinds even when the good cards leave you.
The tourneys i do really well in the cards I get seem to get better as the night goes. I make a move on my chips until after the first hour or so.
The last tourney I was in I was short stacked and pushed all-in with AJ suited and lost to A6 when a 6 hit on the turn. Finished 12th and the top 11 got a free seat in a tourney to win a seat at the WSOP. I was a little upset that I had him dominated in cards preflop and lost.
The week before that I took 1500 to 8500 in less than an hour and then never saw another decent starting hand the rest of the night except QQ and when I bet everyone folded. I got no action except stealing blinds and everyone caught up to me in chips and I lost my advantage. Eventually took 5th.
Posted Thu May 19, 2005 10:04 am GMT by titans4ever
One last thing, what is your goal going into the tournaments. I feel this is very important before you play your first hand of the day.
If it is to get into the money I would not get involved in the big hands, even if you think you are in the lead after the flop. I have folded 10s preflop after being reraised early in tourney. I like my chips and if I don't feel I can be the one controling the betting in the hand I will fold good hands early in the event.
If you want to win then you have to take more chances a get those hands that allow you to double up your chips and keep pace with the other big stacks.
Posted Thu May 19, 2005 10:59 am GMT by Loonbat
| Skribbles wrote: | I think the complete opposite. MTTs are the only place I make money. They definitly are not consistent, but you only need 1 win every couple months to make it worth it. I play FL, NL, SnGs and Stud but cannot consistently win at any of them. I have ridiculously bad swings in all games that I always end up even money. I'll throw $10 or $20 into a NL Hold'em or a Stud Hi / Lo and take my chances. I've won 2 NL MTTs and 3 other final tables, winning me a low of $150 or so to a big take of $6600. With the stud hi/lo (very easy game) I've won 3 of the 8 MTTs I've played in (minimum of 150 people) and had 1 other final table.
Just my opinion though... and if I don't cash out my winnings right away, I piss it away at cash tables. |
I, on the other hand, piss away my money at the MTTs, because they are so fun. At one point, I was in the money 70% of the time in FL single table SnGs. This profit would be used for 20, 30, 50 and $100 MTTs. I think I'll just go back to the SnGs ...
-Loon
Posted Thu May 19, 2005 5:30 pm GMT by PuckJunkieNY
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Muck wrote: | | So is the consensus “don’t bother with tourneys if you want to make money, stick to cash games”?. |
That's my take on the subject. |
Yeah, I agree with making your money in the ring games (and 1 table SNGs). If fact I let them fund my MTT play as well....why not right? Makes the pressure a bit less when other people are funding your buy-in.
Also, on UB you can play a 10 seat ($11 or $13) SNGs for a TEC (Tourney Entry CHip) worth $110. Yet another cheap way to get into MTT's
I've played a fairly small number of online MTTs this year mainly because of the kid in my arm's (see upper left), but have won more than I invested. Maybe 20-25 MTTs total, but made 3 final tables. Two 7th place finishes and a First. Unfortunatly the 1st place finish was in one of the only three Freerolls I played in this year. That won me UB bonus $'s only. I cashed those quickly through raked play. Finished in the money about 5 other times, but just small money for those. Toughest was a 7th place Sat. for a shot at Aruba...Top six got the 200+15 buy-in...I got $27...  Try, Try again.
GL in your MTTs all
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