How much math do you use in poker? |
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Posted Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:54 pm GMT by Iron Butt
So I wonder: How much math do you personally use in poker? I'm wondering because although I know how to figure hand outs and odds and pot odds and implied odds and reverse implied pot equity blah blah etc., I very rarely use them beyond to get a very general sense of where I am in a hand. For instance, I might think, "OK, that's a nice pot, I have plenty of outs, and I think these guys missed the flop, I'm gonna try and steal it" rather than, "OK, I'm 48% to hit, I'm getting 4:1 to call, I don't put either of these guys over 24%, so I'm going to raise, leveraging my pot equity etc.".
I guess I feel I am grasping the general situation fairly accurately and am not missing that much by not figuring everything out to the last decimal. Also I think it would interfere with my game. I usually play fairly quickly, and I'm not particularly great at math, so although there are many situations that I have faced often and know the odds without having to think, if I took the time to crunch every number there would be often be notable delays, which would be probably taken, and probably usually correctly, as weakness. Also I often go against pot odds etc., by for instance folding when I think I'm beat regardless of odds or etc. Might be wrong mathematically but it usually works out well for me.
So, what numbers do you crunch and how often? Would you say I'm missing anything by a more seat-of-the-pants approach? I guess I should say that I play mostly live tournament hold'em. Which brings up another point; it seems to me that this stuff is much more important in limit, where there are definite and manageable limits on reverse implied odds etc. Would you agree?
Thanks in advance for your reply.
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Posted Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:08 pm GMT by Geno
I'm with you really, I mostly play NL games and tend to find that very few situations are marginal so you often know whether a drawing hand is worth calling or not pretty much without using pot odds. Knowledge of them is key, 3 decimal places is not 
Posted Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:26 pm GMT by gol4pro
I'm extremely math minded, and every decision I make is usually made off percentages.
Unless I do something like I did the other day... deep down, I was 80% sure that that guy had the A high flush (I had K high flush), but I pushed in anyway, thinking to myself there was a 65% chance he wouldn't have it.
Every decision you make needs to be calculated based on what you know about the hand, in my opinion.
Posted Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:34 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Yeah, if you play NL it's much more about gaging your oppoent and how much money you'll be able to get out of him if you hit a draw (implied odds). And if you play more tourneys there is even less math. In a tourney a hand with a +EV should not necessarily be played. Of course you already knew that, but I'm here to point out the obvious.
Posted Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:26 am GMT by snoogins47
How much math do I personally use in poker? More than most. Is it necessarily good or bad? I'm not sure.
Posted Fri Apr 22, 2005 8:22 am GMT by Soup_dog
I was wondering the same thing. I have been playing for years and have a good "feel" for the proper play but never learned all of the math.
I am reading "small stakes hold 'em" and the math they expect you to do each hand is amazing! By the time I figured out my Ev, pot odds, implied odds and reverse odds my hand would be folded by the computer... and I'm a math major! 
It is interesting to read all of the computations and logic some players put into thier game though. I will be curious to here some other players thoughts on this.
Posted Fri Apr 22, 2005 9:32 am GMT by Skribbles
I'll do the absolute basics. I figure out how many outs I have and go from there. I'll check the pot size, how many people are left in the hand, are they raising, calling, re-raising etc... and base my decisions on that.
Posted Wed May 11, 2005 12:44 pm GMT by AAceman
TEXAS CALCUALATEM BABY
ok now dont go telling everybody about it.
This little wonder of technologie calculates your outs for you at any time.
Just open it next to your poker table and look at what it says.
it has a list of stuff calculating the odds of other people having straights, flushes etc etc. Also it says to fold raise call at any time depending on the
settings(tight,passive,loose).
I only look at my outs and calculate some pot odds. U can also see the hands u have folded, which i find nice.
the software costs 40 bucks but in my opinion its worth it.
Posted Wed May 11, 2005 2:03 pm GMT by BeerWench13
It depends. I know, I say that in every post, but it's true. There are times when my odds aren't correct to make a call, but my read tells me that I have that player beaten and he/she knows that the only way they can win the pot is to overbet it. Sometimes I'll have the correct odds to make a call, but I know I'm beaten and will get out of the way instead of throwing away more on the hand than I already have.
I agree with Geno on this one. Having a grasp on the math in the situation is key, but figuring your exact odds (i.e. 5.7:1) is not a neccessity in my opinion. I usually use the math more for figuring how to ruin the odds of an opponent's draw and how to extract the most from my opponents when I have the nuts. The rest just varies dependant upon my read. If I am up against a player that I don't have a good read on, then I fall back on the math.
Posted Wed May 11, 2005 4:48 pm GMT by ViperX883
My take on this is that the mathematical part of the game is much more useful in limit hold'em than in no limit. No limit is much more of a psychological battle since you can get busted for all your chips on any given hand. Given that, paying attention to the play of the opoonents and seeing what they do and what hands they do it with is supremely more important in no limit.
For instance, let's say you are on a flush draw off teh flop. Now, in limit you call here if you are getting better than 2:1 on your money since you have a 35% chance of making your flsuh. Also, if you miss, pot odds or implied odds may be good enough to call another bet on the turn if you miss and hope to hit on the river. In other words, in limit you are calling and giving yourself the full 35% chance to hit.
In no limit, the situation is different. If you are on a flush draw here, it is a much more risky play to make a call, though the rewards can be great. The odds of you hitting your flush on the turn are around 4.5:1. Also, if you miss on the turn it is unlikely that you will be able to call an aggressive turn bet because the odds simply wont be there and it will cost too much of your stack. In order to make a call here and justtake one off I think you need to have better than 4.5:1 on your money, which almost never happens in no-limit, not to mention the fact that if someone has a higher flush or a boat you are really in for a world of hurt.
I'm not saying that you should never play flush draws... they are some of the most powerful draws in the game. If you do decide to play though, either try to win through a raise on the flop or try to see the turn card as cheaply as possible and getting at leats 4.5:1 on your money.
I'm sure some will disagree, but I am admittedly more proficient in limit cash games than no limit cash games.
Posted Thu May 12, 2005 7:21 am GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | In no limit, the situation is different. If you are on a flush draw here, it is a much more risky play to make a call, though the rewards can be great. |
That's a great example. I agree with you. In NL you may get to see the turn cheaply, but if you don't hit you may have a huge bet to call to see the river. NL is a completely different ball game from limit. That's why I love it so much. I don't want those flush draws catching on the river on my two pair.
Posted Thu May 12, 2005 3:17 pm GMT by Iron Butt
Sweet, this topic lives again... So, questions:
Any big math guys: Care to expand on your approach?
Anyone big on pot odds: What do you think of the idea that relying on pot odds makes you too predictable, especially in NL? Someone who in tough spots can be relied on to call a small bet and fold to a big one is my dream opponent...
Again, TIA for your response.
Posted Thu May 12, 2005 8:14 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Iron Butt wrote: | | Anyone big on pot odds: What do you think of the idea that relying on pot odds makes you too predictable, especially in NL? |
Pot odds is a great concept, but they're flawed. The fact is you'll make more than the current pot on average when your draw hits, so implied odds are more important. And yeah check-calling your draws does make you too predictable.
Posted Fri May 13, 2005 4:22 am GMT by AAceman
making your flush draw 1 in 4.5 times?
thats incorrect
the odds are greater, 25-30%
Yep, flush draws kick azz
Posted Fri May 13, 2005 12:31 pm GMT by tylanthus
I am a limit player for the most part. That said, most situations are so common that you don't need to use much math at all. I do calculate pot/implied odds (usually pot odds at a limit table) but most of the time it is a very quick calculation, simplified example:
flush draw w/ the AJs = 12 outs (maybe 13 or 14 if you think your J is good if it hits)
pot is giving 9:1
5 people still in the pot
--I own more than 20% of the pot so Raise
Now...if the calculations are going to come out remotely close...that doesn't mean I calculate them to 5 decimal places and figure out which has an EV edge. I generally give up small edges in small pots and protect in big pots.
As for anybody with math ability problem...nobody can see you...so print out a chart that has an #outs->%tohit conversion on it.
Posted Fri May 13, 2005 12:44 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | As for anybody with math ability problem...nobody can see you...so print out a chart that has an #outs->%tohit conversion on it |
I had a guy bring one of those to our weekly homegame. It was hysterical to watch him pick it up and study it. Boy, what a tell. After his 3rd buy-in was gone, he got up and left and no one has seen him since. Maybe he decided that limit was more his style. I hope we didn't cause a newbie to quit before he really got started.
Posted Fri May 13, 2005 6:11 pm GMT by snoogins47
I think that the reference to somebody "relying on pot odds being predictable" is more on the river, where players will call with almost any piece of the board if they're getting 5 to 1 or so. Easy as pie to value bet against. It's a moderately valid concept, but people calling smallish sized bets almost all the time on the river isn't somebody who's relying on the math, it's a weakness. Math is not an absolute in poker, but neither are player reads. Only by combining them can you begin to grasp the intricacies of the game.
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