Posted Wed Apr 27, 2005 10:34 am GMT by p3nguin
Great site by the way, thanks to all involved in the info linked to the left.
I learned a great deal from the articles about odds so I had a question. What kind of odds do you look for to determine your bet?
The article says:
| Quote: | | If your chance of winning is significantly better than the ratio of the pot size to a bet, then you have good pot odds. |
What is "significantly"? If I have a 1/6 chance of catching an out and my bet is 1/7 the pot should I bet? I know it comes down to more than that. Position and player reads and all that but from a pure statistical point of view what odds do you want before you bet?
Secondly, my budget can only afford me .25/.50 limit games right now. Am I going to learn anything at this level? Or am I wasting my time?
Also, I am finding in limit games that a flush seems to win a larger percentage of hands, should I be keeping any two suited cards long enough to see the flop?
I entered a .50+.05 sit and go last night and won $2.25 (I think). It was a minor victory but my first cash win (aside from ring games) and it put a smile on my face. I am loving this game!
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:02 am GMT by Muck
I asked a similar question once “How much of an edge do you want to call an all-in”. I think the significant bit comes down to how much you’re willing to gamble, on top of all the other factors you mentioned and have to consider.
Posted Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:34 am GMT by suitedaces84
There are three kinds of odds to look at when playing draws. Bet odds, implied odds, and pot odds.
To explain bet odds simply, it is profitable to bet when your pot equity is higher than the pot equity of the average caller. If I have a flush draw on the flop my pot equity will be around 35% (because I'll hit my flush 35% of the time). If I have one caller my pot equity is lower than the average player's pot equity (the average player's pot equity will be 50%) so it's not profitable to bet for value. If I have four callers the average players pot equity is 20%, mine is 35%, it will be profitable to bet my draw. It's common to have good bet odds on the flop, it's rare to have good bet odds on the turn. If I miss my draw on the turn my pot equity will go down.
Implied odds determine whether it is profitable to call based on the an estimation of the payoff. So let's I'm in a 2/4 game, the pot is $14, it's the turn, and I'm heads up with a $4 bet coming at me. My pot odds are not good (my draw is 4:1, the call is 3.5:1). However, I realize I will be able to get an extra $4, maybe even $8 if I hit on the river. Now I compare the payoff (14$+$4) to the call and get 4.5:1, which is greater than 4:1, so I have good implied odds. Implied odds are an estimate.
Pot odds determine whether it is profitable to call based on the current size of the pot. If the pot to bet ratio is greater than the miss to hit ratio, you have good pot odds.
There is much more to take into account than these odds. For example, if your odds are boarderline and you suspect it will get raised behind you, you should consider folding. If the board is has two spades on it in a pot with five players, and you have an open ended straight, it's likely that you only have six outs, not eight. This list goes on and on...just a few things to consider.
Posted Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:37 am GMT by suitedaces84
| p3nguin wrote: | | Secondly, my budget can only afford me .25/.50 limit games right now. Am I going to learn anything at this level? Or am I wasting my time? |
Stick to those games. Learn to beat them. When you have made enough to move up to higher stakes, and you feel comfortable do it. Just be patient and move up slowly. Playing at stakes your bankroll can't afford is the best way to bust.
Posted Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:51 am GMT by p3nguin
| suitedaces84 wrote: | It's common to have good bet odds on the flop, it's rare to have good bet odds on the turn. If I miss my draw on the turn my pot equity will go down.
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Am I reading this correctly? Do you mean that your pot equity stays the same (assuming no one folds) but your chance of hitting is now only 19% so the odds are not as good?
Forgive my ignorance, just trying to understand.
Thanks for the rest of the post, it was really informative and in time I hope to be able to take all of these things into consideration.
Posted Wed Apr 27, 2005 1:47 pm GMT by suitedaces84
When you miss on the turn, your pot equity goes from 35% to 19%. On the flop you need two callers to make your bet EV (more than two and your bet will be +EV). On the turn you'll need four callers to make your bet EV. It's very common to get two callers on the flop. It's much less common to get four callers on the turn. As a result you're often going to bet the flop, then check-call the turn (especially in a typical loose low limit game). In a five or six handed pot a strong draw on the flop is much better than TPTK.
Of course, there is more to betting draws than bet odds. You have to consider the semi-bluff. If you bet your draw on the flop, get only one caller, and miss the turn, it's not a bad idea to fire again. If you check the turn, you will win no more than 20% of the time. And if you check the turn they will most likely bet. So out of position a check, and bet will probably cost you the same. You're better off investing one big bet to see the river with a chance of stealing the pot, than you are investing one big bet to see the river with no chance of stealing the pot.
If you bet the turn, are called and miss you'll have another chance at buying the pot. For one thing your oppoent may have missed a draw, in which case it's an easy steal. You bet the last two streets, and have represented a made hand. Convincing your oppoent that you have a decent hand should not be too difficult. You won't have to make this river bluff work too often to make it profitable either. By the river the pot should be five big bets or more. If you can steal it on the river one out of four times, you'll come out ahead. Check-calling the turn makes it very difficult to steal it on the river.
A few more things to consider:
-Your table image, if you've been caught bluffing ten hands in a row, bluffing will be much harder. If you've shown a bunch of winners stealing the pot will be much easier.
-Your oppoent, there are a lot of fish who will show down A-high or any pair everytime. Do not bluff these guys. Don't feed the animals, as Sean_in_NJ would say.
If you have a program that tracks players these decisions will be much easier.
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