If you're willing to call a bet, then bet? |
|
Posted Mon May 02, 2005 12:49 pm GMT by krakajak
This post actually began as a response to another post in the hand analysis section, but I thought It would be good to repost it here, so we could discuss it in more depth.
There's a certain often repeated platitude of poker that I hear voiced in many different ways. "It takes a stronger hand to call with than to bet with," or "If you're gonna call anyway, you might as well bet."
This statement is probably true when you have a made hand. Betting can win you the pot right there, and can force out opponents who may later catch a card to beatr you. However, I have seeen this theory applied to drawing hands, where it is often completely wrong. With drawing hands, you often want to see the next card as cheaply as possible, so you will often be in a position where you are willing to call a bet, even though you aren't willing to bet.
For example, suppose I have a flush draw on the turn. There are 5 big bets in the pot, and two opponents remain. If I bet and am called by both opponents, I am only getting 2:1 on that bet; the odds of my making the flush do not justify the bet. However, if my opponent bets, I am getting 6:1 to call; the odds clearly justify a call.
Of course, if you have fold eqity in the bet, then that could shift the balance of the equasion. However, There are times when you know your opponent won't fold, so your fold equity is zero. Also, there is the chance that you will be raised, which means that you have paid 7:2 for your flush draw, which the odds do not justify.
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Mon May 02, 2005 2:04 pm GMT by snoogins47
You bring up a good point, that cliches like these are often overused/overapplied.
A few points to make to counter your post though:
| Quote: | | For example, suppose I have a flush draw on the turn. There are 5 big bets in the pot, and two opponents remain. If I bet and am called by both opponents, I am only getting 2:1 on that bet; the odds of my making the flush do not justify the bet. However, if my opponent bets, I am getting 6:1 to call; the odds clearly justify a call. |
This line of thinking is somewhat flawed. Let's just look at a few results here, and ignore river action. I'll dumb down the math because it's easier to fudge numbers while 4-tabling. We'll say you make your flush 20% of the time.
If nobody bets and you see the river free, you're averaging 1 big bet per time you run that.
Now let's pretend you bet and are called in two places. You're averaging 0.6BB in that scenario.
Now let's pretend your opponent bets into you, is called by the other player, and you are looking at 7:1 on your call. Clearly profitable right? But how profitable? 0.6BBs profitable. Who the bettor is makes NO difference mathematically
Now, if only one opponent calls, no matter who bets, you make less money... you're only making 0.4BBs with one caller..
Your best scenarios are these, in this order:
1)You take the pot down unopposed. This doesn't happen often, but is massively profitable when it does. This happens a small amount of the time when you bet, and for all intents and purposes, never if you don't.
2)You see the river for free. This can't happen if you bet.
3)Somebody bets, and both other players call. (assuming they won't fold the river)
4)Somebody bets, one other player calls (assuming he won't fold the river)
Raises and paying extra bets are bad news as well.
Your best decision, then, comes down to specific player reads and situations. If you are very certain there will be a bet on this round, your goal should be to make sure the other player calls, so this could tip the scales to a bet, or a check, depending on your position relative to them. If one person is very aggressive and is inclined to raise a lot, your best bet is often to check to him... if the players tend to be passive, and there's any sort of chance you can pick up the pot, it's probably best to bet.
This cliche comes more into play in heads up situations, out of position. If you're getting the pot odds to call if your opponent bets (on say, a flush draw) then it is typically correct to bet, because the fold equity mores than makes up for the fact that your bet is losing money if called. This is because you're going to have to put that bet into the pot most of the time anyway, so you give yourself the most profit potential, typically, by betting.
/i
Posted Mon May 02, 2005 6:32 pm GMT by tame_deuces
+ if you check/call every time you are on a draw/chasing, you're getting easy to read. The occasional betting on a draw can increase your implied odds if you hit. Mixing it up is usually good poker, especially in live play.
Posted Wed May 04, 2005 6:00 am GMT by Muck
| tame_deuces wrote: | | The occasional betting on a draw can increase your implied odds if you hit. |
They also increase because the bigger pot means you can probably get a bigger call when you make your flush.
But it does depend on players. I’ve seen people call an all-in raise for a pot that was insignificant just to lose to hand that had obviously just turned into a monster 
Posted Thu May 05, 2005 3:03 am GMT by TheSalche
if youve got a flush / outside straight draw, ive always found it nice to bet something like 4xBB or so depending on the pot size, when you do this it may make players think twice about their hand and although they may be ahead of you, they may simply call
if you're playing against good people though, and they have a strong hand, they'll see through you and most likely raise you ... you just gotta lay it down to a big raise
Posted Thu May 05, 2005 7:13 pm GMT by krakajak
| TheSalche wrote: | if youve got a flush / outside straight draw, ive always found it nice to bet something like 4xBB or so depending on the pot size, when you do this it may make players think twice about their hand and although they may be ahead of you, they may simply call
if you're playing against good people though, and they have a strong hand, they'll see through you and most likely raise you ... you just gotta lay it down to a big raise |
Isn't that what they call a "blocking bet" I read someone who wrote about using a blocking bet, and I thought that's what he meant, but I wasn't sure.
Posted Mon May 30, 2005 8:20 am GMT by Jackal
I always play flush/outside straight draws very strong. 1 if my hand fills I want to get paid. 2 Everyone might have a weak hand and fold the pot to me. 3 If I am called and I lose it helps my table image. Next time I play strong I will have a hand if I get caught playing the draw. Naturally someone will call me because they don't know if I have anything.
|
|
