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entincing a bluff



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 10:10 am GMT by howzit
1-2NL must-move.


Young player opens for $17 UTG. ($280ish)
Persian w/$500 behind calls.
I make it $60 on the button w/KK. (~$350)

Normally I bet less trying to play a lot of hands postflop but i felt like UTG might think i'm not as strong as I really am. Anyway, he looked like the type that wouldn't fold to a strong raise. I was right, he called. Then persian calls. F ME, he's really going to call in between the two raisers?

Flop $180

10 Heart 10 Diamond 2 Diamond

checked around.

Turn: ($180) 6 : Club
UTG bets $50 then persian calls. Ok, that should slow me down a bit. I call.

River: ($330) 2 Heart

UTG checks, Persian checks. I. . . . . .check.


Obviously my hand is good but does anybody want to bet the river and call a re-raise all-in?


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Posted Wed May 11, 2005 10:17 am GMT by Soup_dog
I think I would have bet about $150. If someone had made the full house or had pocket aces, I think they would have been a bit more agressive. Letting the table check around once, sure. But I doubt they would let it check around twice.


Posted Wed May 11, 2005 10:32 am GMT by howzit
Soup_dog wrote:
I think I would have bet about $150.


which hands would call $150? That also means if I get re-raised all in i've pot stuck myself.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 10:46 am GMT by Soup_dog
Ace high might call... Thinking he had two pair with an ace high. Or anyone with a pocket pair that is higher than a pair on the board. More than likely they will both fold.

The only hands you need to worry about are pocket aces, a 10 or a 2. They way they were betting, I wouldnt think either of them had one. If they raise me "all-in" then I need to start sweating. Shocked That might be too aggressive, but I'm not an expert. I'm still trying to figure out all the nuances (sp?) of this game. LOL



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 10:57 am GMT by howzit
lol, a 10 or two is the only card i'm scared of. But given the betting pattern, I'd be very impressed if the persian checked/called his 10 three times!

I never played w/him before so didn't know if he was capable of making a move like that and decided that the UTG might call a value bet but if persian decided to get tricky and come over the top, I'd make a ridiculously painful laydown. BTW the Persian i hear plays in the 5-10 PL game which is very tough


I didn't know at the end who was trapping whom. Confused If I was the persian, I'd raise the turn bet another $100 on top. In fact, I should've raised another $100 on the turn if my read was that neither had a 10.





PS: ace high calls there right around 0% of the time.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 11:06 am GMT by Dave B
I think your check on the river is fine, no sense walking into a trap. I may have raised the turn to $100-150, just in case he has a strong Ace. He could just as easily have AA or a 10.


Posted Wed May 11, 2005 11:43 am GMT by Soup_dog
howzit wrote:

PS: ace high calls there right around 0% of the time.


no, I don't think he has ace high. I think he has two pair with an ace kicker. At least this seems to happen in low stakes all the time. They think, well heck, I have the best kicker, I will at least split the pot, maybe win. Thats why I would have thought you might get a caller.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 11:57 am GMT by howzit
Soup_dog wrote:
howzit wrote:

PS: ace high calls there right around 0% of the time.


At least this seems to happen in low stakes all the time. They think, well heck, I have the best kicker, I will at least split the pot, maybe win. Thats why I would have thought you might get a caller.


true. . 1-2NL is the cutoff between good and bad players, IMO. But in higher games, it is more likely that the ace high is going to fold or make a massive raise.

Fun decisions yeah.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 12:27 pm GMT by NickFlynn
Well, this is out of my league, but I think I'd throw a bet out there on the flop when it was checked around - something like $120 or so.

This is pretty much going to make you pot stuck, but I don't like giving away a free card here - you are screwed if an ace or a diamond falls on the turn.

- Nick



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 2:54 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Quote:
I think I'd throw a bet out there on the flop when it was checked around

I second that. I agree with the check on the river, but I think I'd have thrown an info bet out on the flop to weed out who may be holding a 10. If that was done, you may have taken the pot right then, but if not, then you have at least some idea of what your opponents may have by their call/raise. Just my humble opinion, of course.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 4:27 pm GMT by ViperX883
I'm baffled as to why people raise so much preflop in a 1/2 game... guess that's why I stick to limit when I play cash games and only play NL in tourneys. Anyway, I agree that an info bet on the flop was called for. If anyone calls you there then maybe you slow down. I think the turn bet was an attempted buy, possibly with a decent A like AJ or AQ.

I like the check on teh river here for two reasons. First, you don't want to face a reraise all-in and have to fold KK. I would rather just chceck it down and see if I am best here. Also, if you do bet strong here you can only get called by a hand that has you beat. No one is going to call a strong bet here unless they have a hand for it (unless you are playing a maniac). Reminds me of the time when I saw Lee something (can't remember hsi last time) make 9's full on the flop and then check it all the way to the river. On teh river, Joe Awada made dueces full. Lee came out and made a value bet finally here. It folded around to Joe who instantly moved all-in. Lee obviously called and Joe was busted. This is a terrible bet b/c no one calls there unless they can bust you. Same goes for your hand with KK.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 4:46 pm GMT by howzit
here's why i didn't bet the flop:

KK is way ahead or way behind UTG and the Persian. Board is relatively easy to read draw-wise and if a three flush turns, I'll pick up a better read on the players.

UTG: i know i have him crushed so free card won't be too bad.
Persian: is sneaky and has me outchipped to try to muscle me out of hte pot later.


So, by betting the big pair, UTG gets off the hook easy but allows the Persian to outplay me on the turn/river. Question is, if I get called how much more is this hand going to cost me?

I thought it would be probably for my stack and I didn't think this was the situation i wanted to risk my stack.

Pot size vs. stack size. I get called on this street and half my stack is in there, don't have good reads, and i'm playing w/a one pair hand. Not my ideal situation. I also, checked because it might look like I misssed AK and might get a lesser hand to bet, which it did on the turn.




The only regret was not raising the turn to $150.



FYI, UTG showed nines and the Persian mucked.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 4:57 pm GMT by ViperX883
I still don't like the check because by cjecking you show weakness, which IMHO gives the "persian" a better chance to outplay you later on. Also, I assume that since there was no 9 on board that the guy had pocket 9s which means that you let him take a free card to draw out on you on the turn. This is a question where we will be divided, but I do like the check on the river.


Posted Wed May 11, 2005 8:34 pm GMT by howzit
ViperX883 wrote:
I still don't like the check because by cjecking you show weakness, which IMHO gives the "persian" a better chance to outplay you later on.

But wouldn't betting and then getting called still tie me to my hand? I've been told he's a very tricky player so him calling my "information" bet could still be a very, very wide range of hands. I'd need a very good read to have to fold this hand on a 6 Club turn.


Quote:
Also, I assume that since there was no 9 on board that the guy had pocket 9s which means that you let him take a free card to draw out on you on the turn.


If he's drawing to a 2-outer, which i suspected, betting would be -EV. In other words, he's drawing razor thin on me and i don't necessarily want him to fold.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 9:53 pm GMT by ViperX883
There are clearly two school sof thought here. For myself, I want the money when I have the best hand regardless of how much is in there, unless of course I have the absolute nuts. I'd rather make a small profit than give out free cards and risk dropping a big pot. I am generally a low risk player.

I think your strategy is riskier, but as we all know more risk = more reward when it pays off.



Posted Wed May 11, 2005 10:12 pm GMT by NickFlynn
I'm not really advocating betting for information on the flop, I think you bet for value because you are ahead. I don't know how crazy this game is, but I can't see the other people in this hand having AT or 22, so the only hand that has you beat is TT. (Well, AA also, but that's a reach, given the pre-flop action.) I also don't want to give a free card here.

My impression is that you played the whole hand scared because you were worried about the Persian being tricky. Unless the Persian is Doyle Brunson and and you read him for playing T2, I think you played the hand way too passively. I don't even like the check on the river - if the 2 helped anyone, they were already far ahead of you.

You ended up getting another $100 out of the hand by checking, so who am I to judge, but I don't like the way you played it.

- Nick



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 7:56 am GMT by BeerWench13
Don't hold back, Nick, tell us what you really think. Laughing

I have to agree with Viper on this one. I'd rather win small than lose big myself. I understand your logic, but I would've definitely bet on the flop. Like I said before, it would've been good for information, but also would've probably gotten one of your opponents out of the hand. I'd much rather take it from there heads up then have two players to worry about catching up to me.
It's really difficult to say since I wasn't there and didn't have the opportunity to get a read on the players.
Quote:
My impression is that you played the whole hand scared because you were worried about the Persian being tricky.

I think this is true also. It's not exactly the way I would've stated it, but I think Nick's right here. When I was in AC I went on a run of cards that any player would thank the poker gods for. I bought in for $120 and cashed out at $980. Not a bad take. Anyway, while I was on that rush, if I got involved in a hand with a player who was new to the table, everyone else at the table would tell him that he was going down and not to get too comfortable because they'd be broke soon. They all treated me like I was Annie Duke or something. I'm nowhere near as seasoned as she is, but they put that into the heads of the newbies to the table and actually allowed me to win more pots just by betting at the newcomers.
Also, I have a friend who told me that he was bringing a guy to our weekly game that was "a really good player". He was awful. He would stay in with Ax all the way to the river hoping to hit that big card, call all the way with a 7 high flush draw, or a gutshot, etc.
My point: Don't take anyone else's word for what type of player your opponent is. Make your own judgement call.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 8:04 am GMT by Dave B
Given his position, I like checking the flop. Anyone with a 10 is likely going to check the flop too see if they can get some action. No point in betting and chasing anyone off a pocket pair. Since he is last to act, he can check the flop and give someone 2 chances take a shot at the pot.

Now, with the bet on the turn, he is either value betting his trips or believes that he is leading the hand. By raising the turn here, you can find out, if he reraises, get out. If he calls, then be worried. Either way check the river.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 9:47 am GMT by NickFlynn
Take all of this with a big grain of salt - I don't play at this level, maybe my mind isn't subtle enough the understand the intricacies. Hell, the final pot is about the size of my bankroll.

That being said, here is why I bet the flop. Everyone (including you) seems to think that you should have raised the turn - what's that raise going to have to be? With $280 in the pot, a min-reraise isn't really going to garner you much information - you would probably have to put in $150 ($50 to call, $100 raise). At that point you've got $210 in the pot and you are pretty much pot stuck.

On the flop, you've got more headroom to maneuver in - the pot is $180, you can bet $90 and find out where you are at. If you get reraised, you can get out. If you get called, you slow down.

Maybe I'm not undertanding the whole hand from your perspective - I assume you felt pretty confident you were ahead, and you feel like you got an extra $100 in the pot by checking the flop. I guess that makes pretty good sense, but I think I would have bet the river. I don't see the 2 as a very dangerous card, and I'm not sure this is a case where you are only going to called by a hand that can beat you - I think with as passively as you played the hand after the flop, I think anyone with a pair is going to call $100.

- Nick



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 9:57 am GMT by Dave B
I say that I am 80-90% sure that I am ahead. If I bet the flop, all fold unless I am beat and I get no money out of it.

By checking, you encourage someone to take a shot at the pot-and as expected, someone did. Now, you have a someone actually call the bet before you act, I am more concerned about the passive call than I am the bet. That is why I raise here, saying "I have a hand, where are you at".

What I am concerned about by just calling the turn is the BB checking after firing once and the 2nd player firing a large bet on the river figuring that you both are weak and he can take the pot down w/ a bet. I dont want to "invite" him into the hand w/ a pair on the board.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 10:13 am GMT by NickFlynn
Dave B wrote:
I say that I am 80-90% sure that I am ahead. If I bet the flop, all fold unless I am beat and I get no money out of it.

By checking, you encourage someone to take a shot at the pot-and as expected, someone did. Now, you have a someone actually call the bet before you act, I am more concerned about the passive call than I am the bet. That is why I raise here, saying "I have a hand, where are you at".

What I am concerned about by just calling the turn is the BB checking after firing once and the 2nd player firing a large bet on the river figuring that you both are weak and he can take the pot down w/ a bet. I dont want to "invite" him into the hand w/ a pair on the board.


Maybe this is just an example of too much time spent in the kiddie pool, but I wouldn't be surprised to get a call on the flop from someone who is behind if I bet half the pot. The bet looks like a standard continuation bet and they may think I'm holding AK/AQ and I just missed. That flop isn't terribly scary if you are holding 88-QQ, or two diamonds. The guy with 99 thought it was good enough to lead out and bet on the turn, he might have called a flop bet. If I get the $90 call on the flop, my pot is only $10 behind what you got out of checking the flop, and I've lost one opponent.

I definitely agree with raising the turn, if you've checked the flop. I think the check does invite someone to make a play for the pot on the end.

- Nick



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 10:40 am GMT by Dave B
So in your case, what happens if someone calls and then pushes hard on the turn? River? Can you really call, or have you just thrown away $90 without really finding anything out?

In this case, I dont want it to look like I am just betting out since I raised preflop, I want someone to believe that I have a strong hand so that they down try to steal from me.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 11:09 am GMT by NickFlynn
Dave B wrote:
So in your case, what happens if someone calls and then pushes hard on the turn? River? Can you really call, or have you just thrown away $90 without really finding anything out?

In this case, I dont want it to look like I am just betting out since I raised preflop, I want someone to believe that I have a strong hand so that they down try to steal from me.


You DO have a strong hand, so you want a call here. It's a straight value bet - if they think you are just making a continuation bet, that's good - you might get two calls.

We are straying pretty hard from the original hand here, but if someone calls the flop bet, I'm worried. If they push hard on the turn, I'm probably giving up the hand. What's your point? If you raise the turn, and they came over the top of you, you are laying it down too. Assuming your turn raise is bigger than my flop bet, I lose less in this situation.

All this is besides the point anyway - I think the real question here is what's the best way to make the most money on the hand. Howzit checked the flop and induced his opponents into putting another $100 into the pot. The three questions are:
A) Was checking the flop a good play?
B) Was calling the turn a good play?
C) Was checking the river a good play?

My answers:
A) Probably. I would have bet, and would have won a smaller pot most of the time.
B) Probably not. It invited someone to make a play on the river.
C) I don't think so - I think there are a plenty of hands here that would call and lose, given the play on the previous streets.

- Nick



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 11:15 am GMT by Dave B
If they come over the top big, yes, I fold. We arent getting away from the question at all. If you bet the turn, you just give them more info and one more chance to steal. By checking the flop, you make them bet check twice if they have a 10, tough to do.

A) yes
B) no, raise-you get your value here or take down the pot
C) If I had raised the turn and was called, I check.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 11:36 am GMT by NickFlynn
Dave B wrote:
If they come over the top big, yes, I fold. We arent getting away from the question at all. If you bet the turn, you just give them more info and one more chance to steal. By checking the flop, you make them bet check twice if they have a 10, tough to do.

A) yes
B) no, raise-you get your value here or take down the pot
C) If I had raised the turn and was called, I check.


Your C) is different than mine. I agree that if you raised the turn and got called, you should check. My C) was the original circumstance, where you called the turn. When it gets checked around on the river again, I think your kings are good, and you should make a value bet.

- Nick



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 11:53 am GMT by howzit
Nick,

i'll keep my posts short right now to get back to my lunch. Smile

Flop: I never want to bet and get called on the flop. This gives opponents two streets to move me off my hand and let's lesser hand folds.

Turn: When i raise the turn, i uncloak my hand w/a neon sign. By putting half my stack in there, I'm saying "yes, i will back my stack". (Although, i don't really want to nor I don't know if I would I if somebody moved in on me) Not so easy for an uncreative player to make a move w/out a hand.

River: I knew my hand was good on the river but didn't see much value in betting here. Maybe get $60-70. I erred on the side of caution cuz this was the first hand I ever played w/either player.


And no, i'm not weak-tight but just goes to show how hard a medium stack is to play in NL.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 12:27 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Quote:
this was the first hand I ever played w/either player.

Now that little tidbit changes everything. I was under the assumption that you had been playing at least for a little while with these players. If it was the first hand then I can understand your hesitation and the way you played makes much more sense.



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 1:17 pm GMT by NickFlynn
Howzit,

Flop: I guess I just don't really follow your reasoning here. I understand that you are hoping someone is going to fire at the pot on the turn by showing weakness.

Turn: I think Dave has a valid point about the call here opening you up to someone making a move at the pot on the river. On the other hand, I share your concerns about getting pot committed with a non-monster hand. It's a tough situation, and I don't think the call here was a mistake by any means.

River: If you know your hand is good here, I don't see why you don't try to get some more value out of it. I think a 1/4 to 1/3 pot bet would get a caller here. Even if they both fold, hiding your hand has some value as well.

Forgetting about the river, which is sort of a separate issue, I think playing the hand in this way got you the $100 on the turn that you might not have gotten, but it also opened the door for someone to put a move on you and force you to make a really tough decision. Just out of curiosity, how big a bet would you have called on the river?

- Nick



Posted Thu May 12, 2005 2:01 pm GMT by howzit
edited: don't know. . .





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