I got chewed out for this one. |
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Posted Mon May 23, 2005 3:57 pm GMT by Soup_dog
I was playing the $100 NL tables at PP and was steaming. I had won 7 of the last 10 hands and was up to $170 (an unbelievable string of hands) when this hand came up.
I was dealt QJ of  on the button and raised it to $3 and got two callers after 4 had originally limped.
The flop came rags but with two . MP bets out for $4 and I'm the only caller.
The turn is another mid level card but not a heart. Again, the other player bets $7. Now thats a pretty good bet and I must assume I am beat so far... LOL.
My thinking though is that I have been really pulling in the cards the last couple of hands and the pot is pretty good sized. Should I risk another $7 to try and take the pot? If I do manage to hit I can probably skin him for a good bit more. I figured my implied odds were pretty good but I am TERRIBLE at figuring this stuff out.
I call the bet and boom! I get the last heart. I lead out with $20 and he calls. Lets just say that he was NOT amused.
Was I playing the part of the fish here or were the implied odds good enough to make a call with? I know I was dang lucky, but I was curious.
These kind of hands seem to be where you can really rake in the money. So is it worth losing them a couple of times to hit the big ones?
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Posted Mon May 23, 2005 4:02 pm GMT by arras
If I was on a good run and was playing with "free money", no doubt I call that. You didn't force him to call you on the river.
What did he have? Two pair?
Edit: my definition of free money is money that wasn't yours to start the day.
Posted Mon May 23, 2005 4:04 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| arras wrote: | If I was on a good run and was playing with "free money", no doubt I call that. You didn't force him to call you on the river.
What did he have? Two pair?
Edit: my definition of free money is money that wasn't yours to start the day. |
Yeah, two small cards so I'm not sure why he even called my preflop raise. LOL
Posted Mon May 23, 2005 4:35 pm GMT by tame_deuces
He was the fish, he bet too little. Called with an inferior hand pre-flop out of position. Slowplayed two small pairs out of position on a board with a strong draw and a possible overpair on his opponent. Slamming down a potbet is what he should have done, atleast on the turn. The flopbet was ok if he was trying to get an overpair to move in in my opinion. And when he called you on the river he gave you the implied odds you needed.
Posted Mon May 23, 2005 5:12 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Soup_dog wrote: | | Should I risk another $7 to try and take the pot? If I do manage to hit I can probably skin him for a good bit more. I figured my implied odds were pretty good but I am TERRIBLE at figuring this stuff out. |
Here's a quick way to determine if you have the odds. You're a 4:1 dog on this draw, so simply ask yourself "can I win four times the incoming bet if my draw hits?".
On the turn the pot is $25 or so, and the incoming bet is $7. 7 x 4 = 28 so if you can get at least $3 out of him after your draw hits you have good implied odds.
| Soup_dog wrote: | | Lets just say that he was NOT amused. |
Well, I wouldn't be amused if I played a hand as poorly as he did either.
Not only did you have good implied odds on both the flop and turn but you had pot odds that were nearly good. When you factor in the $20 you can get after the river it's a very easy call. You would have been a fool to fold this hand. Yes, he was the fish for betting weak enough to keep you around.
Also here's an idea on how you might have played this better post-flop. When you're up agaisnt a passive oppoent try raising on the flop. The play itself has a -EV that's minimal. This is made up for by the fact that you will likely get a free river. It also has a lot of decption. Many players will be scared or look to check-raise the turn with a monster, that's when you check behind them on the turn. Just don't try this against aggressive players who will likely re-raise or push.
Whenever someone says something like this to me I say "sorry, I'll fold next time, thanks for the tip". You don't even have to mention that you're being sarcastic.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 8:49 am GMT by howzit
edited to: whatever suitedaces said.
This is also a hand to be limping in on the button.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 9:51 am GMT by Soup_dog
| howzit wrote: | edited to: whatever suitedaces said.
This is also a hand to be limping in on the button. |
So you wouldn't have raised preflop to try and chase some of the limpers away? Is that because it lowers the EV?
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 4:17 pm GMT by howzit
it's not necessarily about EV but more on playing post flop.
To me, I can call behind on the button w/any two cards in these loose passive games. I'd call behind w/82o if I thought I can use my position and a good flop to then make +EV decisions.
QJ and 82o are similar in that they both need favorable flops to put more money in post-flop. Agreed?
But, if the flop misses you in a raised pot and you feel like you need to defend it or steal it, the cards in your hands don't really matter significantly do they? Or, if the flop misses you and you don't want to put in any more money, you just contradicted yourself by putting money in a marginally bad preflop situation.
By limping in behind, you can play smaller pots and not pay dearly for draws (even though they may be priced in correctly).
So, let's say you raise on the button w/QJ
and you take it 3 handed.
10BB
Flop is A 98. Not bad, only one overcard, gut shot to the nuts, and the backdoor flush. Probably the nut flush as the ace is the heart.
Checked to you and you feel like they are weak so you bet 6BB You get one caller. shit.
Turn: 22BB 2 Caller leads for 15BB. . . what do you do now? what's your read? how big are your stacks? Now, can you call w/only 10 pure outs? Do you want to semi-bluff raise w/this draw? What are your implied odds?
Just as a reference: you have 10 outs to the made hand, so you are at roughly 3.6:1, pot is laying you 2.5 : 1. Definitely -EV.
So back to preflop, it's not a matter to me of knocking out the weird hands, to me I'm trying to find profitable situations that don't back me into a corner. In a loose passive game, this hand can hit me pretty hard so in this situation, i don't see many good points of raising on the button.
full-handed loose tables only. Short handed or totally aggro table is diffferent
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 4:28 pm GMT by tame_deuces
If he had won 7 out of the last 10 hands, it can be okay to raise though. Yes, all half-decent pokerplayers KNOW that the outcome of the last hands does not affect the outcome of the next one (or..atleast how the cards will fall).
But most people will fall prey to some simple psychological mechanisms here and believe otherwise. It may very well explain why our fish in the hand bet so little as he did, he expected to lose.
If anyone should be interested, googling for 'availability heuristic' and 'recency effect' should provide some background and some scientific psychological/biological background.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 4:53 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| howzit wrote: | it's not necessarily about EV but more on playing post flop.
To me, I can call behind on the button w/any two cards in these loose passive games. I'd call behind w/82o if I thought I can use my position and a good flop to then make +EV decisions.
QJ and 82o are similar in that they both need favorable flops to put more money in post-flop. Agreed?
But, if the flop misses you in a raised pot and you feel like you need to defend it or steal it, the cards in your hands don't really matter significantly do they? Or, if the flop misses you and you don't want to put in any more money, you just contradicted yourself by putting money in a marginally bad preflop situation.
By limping in behind, you can play smaller pots and not pay dearly for draws (even though they may be priced in correctly).
So, let's say you raise on the button w/QJ
and you take it 3 handed.
10BB
Flop is A 98. Not bad, only one overcard, gut shot to the nuts, and the backdoor flush. Probably the nut flush as the ace is the heart.
Checked to you and you feel like they are weak so you bet 6BB You get one caller. shit.
Turn: 22BB 2 Caller leads for 15BB. . . what do you do now? what's your read? how big are your stacks? Now, can you call w/only 10 pure outs? Do you want to semi-bluff raise w/this draw? What are your implied odds?
Just as a reference: you have 10 outs to the made hand, so you are at roughly 3.6:1, pot is laying you 2.5 : 1. Definitely -EV.
So back to preflop, it's not a matter to me of knocking out the weird hands, to me I'm trying to find profitable situations that don't back me into a corner. In a loose passive game, this hand can hit me pretty hard so in this situation, i don't see many good points of raising on the button.
full-handed loose tables only. Short handed or totally aggro table is diffferent |
Whew Howzit... I had to read this one twice. Basically you are saying that QJ suited is not a strong enough hand to warrant a preflop raise because it needs so much help. That way if I miss the flop I can lay it down without too much damage. On the other hand, if I do hit the flop I should be able to still get the value out of the hand from post flop play. Correct?
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 5:44 pm GMT by howzit
| Quote: | Basically you are saying that QJ suited is not a strong enough
hand to warrant a preflop raise because it needs so much help. That way if I miss the flop I can lay it down without too much damage. On the other hand, if I do hit the flop I should be able to still get the value out of the hand from post flop play. Correct? |
ugh, i don't want to say that but here's my general starting rule. If you all have medium sized stacks 80-100BB, then QJ is a folding hand in EP and MP and more of a calling hand in LP. I may even FOLD this hand if i'm in CO-1 and the button/CO are calling stations. If it's folded to me in the cutoff or button, I will raise w/this hand near 100% of the time.
If I don't have position, i don't want to play
The deeper the stacks the more creative you can be preflop and post flop. However, playing this hand out of position just sucks. But that wasn't your question. You want to know when to call vs. raise.
Well, if you can raise against a pretty sparse field to isolate some players or call to close the action, I think there is some leniency to putting money in the pot. But i find these situations more of the exception than the rule.
Like, if there are very tough players limping in EP/MP, I'll be happy to limp behind and and try to hit a flop that'll get me in position to take down pots. I can use my position to the fullest. However, if they're more of the tight-aggressive nature, I may even raise preflop to try to take the lead away from them. I want to be in total control of the action on all streets and dictate their play. TAGs usually limp in w/drawing type hands, pocket pairs, suited connectors, and suited broadway cards. So if you raise and take control of the action, it'll be much easier to bluff because they're by description, tight. Against looser more aggro players, I'll just take a flop for cheap and get out of there if I don't hit. They'll bet my hands for me if I do make one and I'll have position to control the betting.
On the other hand, if there's just a bunch of donkey calling stations, then i'll just limp in or put in a pot-sweetner and then play ABC poker. I don't have a hand to be running them over.
Sorry this is so long winded, there's just many factors to consider.
Ok, just don't be so gung ho in putting money in the pot preflop because it really isn't a good hand. Remember, position is key and knowing when to raise this hand is important. Experiment until you get comfortable w/it.
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