Posted Tue May 24, 2005 7:42 am GMT by chicoelnino
I not really well versed on the whole pot odds thing. Its something that I really want to be able to understand, but I can't say I even know the basics.
Could someone point me in the right direction of either a website or a book that explains pot odds in laymans terms???? /b
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 8:01 am GMT by PuckJunkieNY
| chicoelnino wrote: | I not really well versed on the whole pot odds thing. Its something that I really want to be able to understand, but I can't say I even know the basics.
Could someone point me in the right direction of either a website or a book that explains pot odds in laymans terms???? /b |
Have you explored the rest of this site?
Start here: http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds.php
Posted Wed May 25, 2005 3:08 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Here it is, unfortunatly, I don't think it's in "laymans terms". The first thing is to learn exactly what odds are.
Odds vs Probablility
Odds
-bad:good
Probability
-good in total
total = bad + good
so if my odds are X:Y the probability will be Y in (X+Y)
so 3:1 is the same as 1 in 4
Converting a % to odds
if you have a x% chance of winning your odds are
100-x:x
so if you have a 30% chance a winning the odds are 70:30
70:30 can be simplified to 2.3:1
Converting odds to a %
If your odds are X:Y you will have a Y/(X+Y)*100% chance of winning.
How you can actually use this
If the pot is $13 on the river and your oppoent bets $10 how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to fold?
The odds are 2.3:1 so if you're more than 30% sure you're beat you should fold.
Let's say I'm 40% sure I'm beat and I call. I lose 60% of the time costing me .6*$10 = $6. However I'll win 40% of the time gaining me .6*$23 = $9.2.
How you can apply this to draws
If I have flush draw on the turn with a pot of $20 and an incoming bet of $7 and I want to determine if I have good pot odds I use the same logic as above. There are 46 cards in the deck and 9 are outs so the odds are 37 bad cards. So my odds are 37:9, this is about 4:1. So if the pot is four times the incoming bet I have good pot odds. In this case I'm 4:1 on my draw and 3.9:1 on my draw. So my pot odds are not good. Of course it's still an easy call because pot odds neglect any money I can win on future streets. So as long as I can get him to call a bet of at least $1 on the river when my flush hits I would be correct to call due to implied odds.
It's all much easier than I made it sound. Just memorize the basic odds below.
Flush--4:1
Open-ended straight--4.5:1
Gutshot straight--10.5:1
Before calling with a draw ask yourself: will I profit at least (appropiate odds based on draw) times the incoming bet?
One more thing to consider, drawing dead. If you've got a gutshot, there are 2  on the board four callers ahead of you it's likely that you have three outs not four...just look for things like that.
Posted Wed May 25, 2005 3:20 pm GMT by Geno
I've moved this into the Odds & Probability forum. No doubt there is even more useful stuff in there for you 
Posted Wed May 25, 2005 5:32 pm GMT by Hank
Nice succinct article on odds and probability.
Thanks suitedaces84!!
Posted Mon Apr 10, 2006 11:31 pm GMT by JackKingOff
ok... i just have a question... i am pretty sure what your doing is fine... however, ive seen a lot of articles or sites say to calculate pot odds u g2 find ur % of hitting ur draw... and to do this you multiply by 2 and then add 1 so basically for a flush draw ud have 19% chance to hit... or i dont know... ive been using that all along... would ur way be better?
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:20 am GMT by Geno
A quick and dirty calculation to find the % of you hitting your draw is:
On the flop, you take your number of outs and multiply by 4.
On the turn, you take your number of outs and multiply by 2.
Flush draw with 9 outs is therefore about 36% (about 1 in 3 or 2 to 1) on the flop, 18% (about 1 in 6 or 5 to 1) on the turn.
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 12:46 pm GMT by jbark
I just ran across this post while reading and learning a bit about poker. but i think there is a typo in sutiedAces reply above where he wrote: | Quote: | How you can actually use this
If the pot is $13 on the river and your oppoent bets $10 how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to fold?
The odds are 2.3:1 so if you're more than 30% sure you're beat you should fold.
Let's say I'm 40% sure I'm beat and I call. I lose 60% of the time costing me .6*$10 = $6. However I'll win 40% of the time gaining me .6*$23 = $9.2. |
i believe that the last line should read: "...gaining me .4*$23 = $9.2"
Now, i'm not claiming any great poker knowledge here because i don't have it but i think i would present this a little differently to make the example more clear. Like this:
How you can actually use this
If the pot is $13 on the river and your oppoent bets $10 how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to fold?
The odds are 2.3:1 so if you're more than 30% sure you're beat you should fold.
Let's say I'm 40% sure I'm beat and I call. I lose 60% of the time costing me .6*$10 = $6. However I'll win 40% of the time gaining me .4*$23 = $9.2, so my expected value on the $10 bet is $9.2 - $6 = $3.2.
Another way of interpreting expected value is this: if i bet ten dollars in this situation i should expect to loose $10 - $3.2 = $6.8 dollars.
cheers
jerry
|
|
