Posted Tue May 24, 2005 9:41 am GMT by howzit
1-2NL live at NYC
Villain is a good friend of mine, pretty much ABC w/some moves: ~$600
Me: bluffs a lot and aggressive w/position. $~600
Me: J-10 in the BB. 3-4 limp in and I check.
Flop: ($~10) 10-10-4 two spades
Hero leads for $15, Villain calls, button minraises, I call, villian raises to $55. Button folds, i call.
Turn: (~$150) 9 non-spade.
I check, villain bets $60.
My move is?
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 9:54 am GMT by Soup_dog
Yikes. Strong bet.
I would guess he has a ten. The question is, how good is his kicker.
I think... I would call.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 11:57 am GMT by arras
There are a few hands out there that beat you, but I would probably make the call and watch him flop over pocket 4's or AT.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 12:50 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
The action on the flop leads me to believe he has AT or KT, but the small reraise is hard to read. With both of the other players already committing $30 prior to his raise, I can't imagine he believes that extra $25 is going to take it down for him. I think he wants action (with AT/KT). Is he the type of player who will limp early with JT or T9? These might be more likely than KT, but I'm just speculating.
I don't think he has 44 here, since I'd expect him to smooth call the min raise on the flop and hope a third spade falls.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 12:56 pm GMT by howzit
assume, villain will raise preflop w/A-10.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 2:39 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I have to admit I'm stumped. I hate calling the turn because no good can come from it.
I either fold to the $60, or check-raise to $150 straight, and I'm leaning toward a fold.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 2:45 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Well, I kind of see your point about calling. Sitting here and thinking, I would say fold them if you don't want to call. Sitting at a table, I would probably call.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 2:47 pm GMT by howzit
yeah, raise or fold in my eyes.
I folded.
On the flop, I wasn't sure if he was calling behind w/a flush draw or a ten. Then when he raised me, he pretty much exposed his hand.
The turn brought the 9 so that narrowed down my opponent's hand even more and I didn't feel like he'd be willing to lay down K-10 in this spot. My guess is he needs to fold here about 70-80% of the time.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 2:56 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Soup_dog wrote: | | Well, I kind of see your point about calling. Sitting here and thinking, I would say fold them if you don't want to call. Sitting at a table, I would probably call. |
The main reason I don't like calling is those cases where the river bricks, which it's going to do more often than not. If a J, T or 9 comes off, it's easy. If a spade comes off, it's easy. If it's anything else, you're still stuck with the same dilemma.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 3:43 pm GMT by suitedaces84
You've got three outs for a win and six for a split. Even if you know for a fact he has a bigger ten you'd still be correct to call if you can take $360 off him on the river when a J hits. If he does infact have a bigger ten an all-in check-raise on the river would likely accomplish this. Yeah it's very boarderline, but calling wouldn't be that wrong either, IMO.
Posted Tue May 24, 2005 4:40 pm GMT by lilitu
I'm assuming we're at a full table here, 8-10 men? What possition is Villain in? The problem you have is the hands that beat you aren't raising hands preflop, although AT is a marginal raiser vs limpers.
This play just doesn't scream 44 or T4 to me, although most average guys will raise big with any trips ignoring the kicker I think he's got you kicked. If I'm right you've got a smidge under 7% chance of winning and a 13% shot at splitting the cash.
So it comes down to read, you can't be sure enough you're ahead to bend the pot odds to justify a call. You could push bluffing the house but I don't think the folding equity is worth the odds gap.
With $57 already invested it's a blow, but at $1-2 you've still got a very good 270bb stack.
I say fold.
What happened anyway?
Lilitu45
|
|
