Posted Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:00 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, I'm curious what you guys think about this hand. The setting is a $3/$6 FL game at a casino. I've been playing pretty tight, but there is a fairly loose-aggressive guy in the hand with me.
I am dealt the J  9 on the button. The pot has about 4 limpers, so I call, wanting to see a flop cheaply (the aggressive player ALWAYS reraised a preflop raiser, and I didn't want to see this hand for 3 bets). BB calls, making it 6-way action.
Flop
Q 8  5
Not bad... an inside straight draw plus a flush draw. I'll make my hand about 45% of the time. BB checks, the aggressor bets, 2 folds, guy on my right calls, I call. BB then raises, and aggressor reraises, as he often did. However, when the guy on my right called, I also had to call, with so much money in the pot. BB did not cap, so we see the turn for 3 bets.
Turn
2 
Blank, more or less. The BB checks, aggressor bets. Here's the interesting part. All day, the aggressor NEVER once lied about the strength of his hand, and I had no reason not to believe him now. He announces, "I hope you guys are good, 'cause I have a hand this time... two pair." I know that I'm chasing at this point, but the pot is getting to be monster. The guy on my right calls; I call, somewhat hoping I'll be able to see the river for only one more bet. BB now folds for some reason. 3 people to the river.
River
2
Bingo, there's my flush. However, I now have a problem. If one of the aggressor's pairs was deuces, he's made a full house to beat me. He leads out betting, the guy on my right calls, and based on the information I have, I smooth-call instead of raising as I usually would. Turns out he had Q8 for top 2 pair, and I take now this nice fat pot.
Do you guys think I played this correctly, based on the information I had? Or did I cost myself $12 more in profit by not raising? If he had the house, he surely would have reraised and I would have had to call with so much in there. Was the safe play correct here, or would you guys have raised the flush anyway?
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Posted Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:16 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Raise it! That's easy for me to say now, but do you really think he was raising preflop w/ a two, plus who knows if he actually had two pair. And furthermore you're getting 2:1 for your money, so you don't have to be right that often to make it correct to raise. Yeah he'll three bet a boat and it will cost you two more. Let's look at it mathamatically:
Bad raise = -2BB
Good raise = +2BB
So, are you really more than 50% certain he's got the boat? Based on the preflop raise I wouldn't be.
Edit: also cap it on the flop. Your pot equity is > 40% your average caller's pot equity is 25%. In the long term you're losing over half a bet by not capping this flop.
Posted Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:37 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
The thing is, for once he DIDN'T raise pre-flop. And, he was the sort to play any two cards, so based on the information I had, I guess it was 50/50 in my mind. You're probably right though, and you're definitely right about capping the flop--I hadn't considered that.
Really been racking my brain on this one.
Posted Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:05 pm GMT by snoogins47
My first thought was: cap the damned flop as well.
Anyway, I don't see a preflop raise here. Even hand distributions put him at 50/50 to have the boat (half the possible two pair hands on the turn contain a deuce)
Given that he was very aggressive on the flop, and wasn't (it doesn't look like) on a blind, I think this is an easy raise on the river. He's a "fairly loose-aggressive player," granted, but he would've had to been 3-betting Q2, 82, or 52, on a multiway flop. It's a possibility, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if we go to the turn, assume he's always telling the truth, and try to put him on a range of hands based on prior action, I'd say Q8 is the clear favorite, followed by Q5/58, then well below that is Q2, and even farther below is 82 and 52.
Raise, raise, raise, raise, raise, raise. The caller is most likely going to call for one more. If he were good and had a big hand, he'd raise. If he were bad and had a big hand, he'd raise. Raise. Raise. Raise!
BTW: | Quote: | | BB now folds for some reason. |
Maybe Ac/Kc + 8x? Q4? Something along those lines? He would've probably raised preflop with most middle pairs, so I'd guess he's got some second pair/3rd pair hand he wanted to peel with, or he's got TPNK or somesuch.
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:11 pm GMT by Iron Butt
Certainly a case can be made to raise there, and well done guys. But I think calling is a reasonable decision... you're nowhere near the nuts and I don't like the 3rd guy in the pot. Sure he should raise with the king flush... unless he doesn't.
I dunno, I understand the reasoning and the value of aggression, but I also think aggression can be overvalued and somehow every time I get in a similar situation I end up against TWO full houses LOL. So I tend not to ride that board that hard with just a small flush.
Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 10:54 am GMT by Jackal
With a pair on the board at a full table discretion is the better part of valor. I would have had no fear of the deuces but someone could have been slow playing a set. I would not have raised. Remember most of the people who post on this forum are play money/freeroll players, they raise with anything.
Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 11:23 am GMT by tame_deuces
| Jackal wrote: | | With a pair on the board at a full table discretion is the better part of valor. I would have had no fear of the deuces but someone could have been slow playing a set. I would not have raised. Remember most of the people who post on this forum are play money/freeroll players, they raise with anything. |
Half your posts advocate aggression, 25% of your posts berate players who play 'inferior' hands in shorthanded play with small stacks nd large blinds and now you insult well-founded opinions of obviously skilled poker players.
I would suggest opening up and starting to listen to people instead, because your game sounds weak in the edges and it sounds like you could be easily bluffed out of pots. And that is what this forum is about, learning and exchanging experiences gathered at the poker table. 
Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:25 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| tame_deuces wrote: | | Jackal wrote: | | With a pair on the board at a full table discretion is the better part of valor. I would have had no fear of the deuces but someone could have been slow playing a set. I would not have raised. Remember most of the people who post on this forum are play money/freeroll players, they raise with anything. |
Half your posts advocate aggression, 25% of your posts berate players who play 'inferior' hands in shorthanded play with small stacks nd large blinds and now you insult well-founded opinions of obviously skilled poker players.
I would suggest opening up and starting to listen to people instead, because your game sounds weak in the edges and it sounds like you could be easily bluffed out of pots. And that is what this forum is about, learning and exchanging experiences gathered at the poker table. |
Glad to see I'm not the only one thinking this.
Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 5:27 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Jackal wrote: | | Remember most of the people who post on this forum are play money/freeroll players, they raise with anything. |
I missed this little gem. Is it really true? Please tell me.
Posted Wed Jun 08, 2005 12:46 pm GMT by mangothebear
In a fixed limit game, I raise here.
In a NL game, I gotta call because if he moves in on me, then I'm left to a very tough decision. Pot's big enough that I will be happy to take it down with my medium flush.
Posted Wed Jun 08, 2005 1:32 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Jackal wrote: | | Remember most of the people who post on this forum are play money/freeroll players, they raise with anything. |
I missed this little gem. Is it really true? Please tell me. |
Sounds like a load of baloney to me. I am definitely under the impression that most of the regular posters on here are real money players. And successful at it too I might add. I owe my recent successes at the table to the members of this forum.
Posted Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:06 pm GMT by Phil14312
I always thought that unless explicitly stated it was play money...I was wondering how you guys could afford TV's with those fake chips. Oh and could you point me to the cable company that accepts free money?
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