Odds of hitting trips if you have a PP |
|
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 5:40 pm GMT by improv
The subject says it all really...
What are the odds of hitting trips if you have a Pocket Pair?
I ask because in my last 10 pocket pairs i have limped in and not hit trips... just wondered how often it 'should' happen!
Whoever answers this, where did you get the info from? Is there a website i can use for these sort of questions? cheers 
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:28 pm GMT by suitedaces84
You'll hit it one in nine times. Or you're an 8:1 dog to hit. There is no website necessary obtain this answer.
The probability of not hitting your set on the first card = 48/50
'' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' second card = 47/49
'' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' third card = 46/48
Multiply these three and you'll get the probability not hitting your set. Subtract this # from 1 and you'll get the probabilty of hitting your set.
Before you see a flop with a low pocket pair ask yourself "can I win 8 times the amount it is to call on average?"
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:38 pm GMT by improv
Flipping heck!
I didnt realise i was that much of a dog...
Hmmm, so would you say it isnt always right to limp with pocket pairs if there is no raises?
If no-one raises pre-flop i ALWAYS see the flop with a PP... maybe i shouldnt be!
(Oh the irony! As im typing this reply, i have 33 in the pocket and the flop comes 355.... i guess that is my 1 in 9 then  )
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:51 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
Just remember, as with all odds in poker, cards have no memory. You could go 100 times without hitting that set............
or you could hit it 100 times in a row.
The odds of it happening are not changed by whether or not it happened last time.
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 6:57 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| improv wrote: | | Hmmm, so would you say it isnt always right to limp with pocket pairs if there is no raises? |
In NL you should be seeing cheap flops with low pocket pairs, but not in limit. Fold them to raises (unless in the BB), and only limp if you have a few limpers before you, or the game is very passive. Being the first limper with a low PP is usually a bad idea.
Posted Sat Jun 04, 2005 7:05 pm GMT by improv
I always play NL, can be doing with Limit.
I seem to be doing what you suggest, apart from i will limp even in early position with a PP. I will need to think about it a bit more.
I actually just went out of a SnG with a PP 2's... was 2 of us left in a $15 6 seater SnG .. lost to KJ... nevermind... been doing well this evening despite the beer, placed in my last 3 SnG's 1 win and 2 seconds!
Webmaster, i know what you mean by no memory, although i like to think the Poker Gods are a little kinder than letting me go 100 times without hitting my set!
Posted Sun Jun 05, 2005 12:02 pm GMT by suitedaces84
In NL always limp from EP. Low pockets are much better hands in NL.
Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:25 am GMT by gamble44pro
The general formula of probability of flopping one expected card (as value) is:
P= (4-c)*C(46+c,2)/19600 , where c is the number of own pocket cards with same value (in your case, c=2).
The odds are 11.51% (0.244% for quads).
|
|
