A better way to play this good draw? |
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Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:13 pm GMT by Aves
I was at the casino the other day playing at the $200 max NL tables ($2/5 blinds) when the following came up. An older man who I've played with before and was pretty tight and straightforward called from early position. I called in middle position with Ac6c. The button and the big blind called as well. The flop came K 4 7 with two clubs. The big blind checked, the tight old man made a pot sized bet of $20 which I was fairly sure meant he had a king. At that point, I asked him how much he had left. He replied about $140. I had him covered and I thought briefly and decided to just call thinking that since he didn't raise preflop, he probly doesn't have AK, so the 3 other aces were also live outs. The other two in the hand folded. The turn brought a nonclub 5. So this also gave me an OESD giving me about 20 outs. The old man bet $40 this time and I thought briefly again and decided to just call again. My question is since he only had about $100 left after betting the $40, would it have been a smarter play to raise him all in on the turn?
My thinking is since I called both times, he was probly thinking I was on a flush draw and if a club comes on the river he might not pay me off. And with so many outs after the turn, raising all in on the turn might be mathematically correct (can anyone show this?) as well as the relatively small possibility that he might fold since he was pretty tight. On the actual hand, I was lucky enough to catch a nonclub 8 on the river completing my straight. He bet $50 on the river (a dumb move in my opinion if he indeed put me on a flush draw), and I raised all in and he called. He showed KQ and I raked in the pot. What are your thoughts?
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Posted Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:39 pm GMT by suitedaces84
If there is no chance the old man will fold raising all-in is wrong. However if you can get him to fold a certain percentage of the time this is the best play.
Raising all-in will cost you $100, if you get called you'll get $77 back on average (that's very good). The pot currently contains about $90. If you put him all-in and have an X probability of getting called. Your EV = (1-X)*90+X*167-100. So for moving all-in to have a positive EV you'll have to make him fold this at least 13% of the time (that shouldn't be too hard). A semi-bluff will never be profitable if you know you're going to be called.
Raising the flop is one way you might have played this better. This is player based, if he's the kind of guy who will come over the top on the flop don't raise. If you're confident he's going to call your raise and check to you on the turn, raise it (then you check behind him if you don't like the turn *hehe*). Like any other play, if you've used it several times already give it a rest, it probably won't work again.
Posted Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:27 am GMT by gol4pro
IMO, such a big overbet on the flop would look extremely suspicious. Although if he is tight, you could probably push him off a hand as strong as KQ.
Calling the flop really does not seem like a bad option. But once the card on the turn hits giving me probably 15-21 outs, I like the semi bluff all in for several reasons.
a) You "waited" until the turn to raise. It becomes easier to convince him you wer slowplaying a set, or hit a strange 2 pair.
b) You're no longer making a huge overbet. It's a raise of 80$ on a pot of 140.
c) It just looks good.
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