Missed flops - Keep firing? |
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Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:35 am GMT by Skribbles
A situation I run into fairly often that I'm still unsure of, is when you miss a flop, how far do you go with it?
Example: KQs on the button. Raise (Limit) and get just 1 caller.
Flop: J74 Rainbow - Villain checks, Hero bets, villain calls.
Do you fire out again?
Turn: 2 - Villain checks, Hero Bets villain calls.
Do you fire again?
River: T - Villan checks, Hero ????
I really hate these hands. As the pre-flop raiser I'll always bet/raise the flop no matter what hits. If your oppenent keeps check/calling he obviously has a weak hand but while he let it go if you fire again? Should you just bet the flop and take a free turn card?
This is assuming you have no read on the oppenent, I mutli-table so I don't bother to read.
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Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:44 am GMT by red_pen
The following is only my opinion... and my mother's  :
| Quote: | | As the pre-flop raiser I'll always bet/raise the flop no matter what hits. |
As my old mum would say:
"if you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got"
....so.... mix it up a bit. you have to check some of the time: on the flop, on the turn; doesn't matter. But you have to play a mixed strategy. yeah you'll get bozoes who chase without pot odds, and occasionally they'll hit and you'll curse yourself for giving them free cards but...
...anyone who notices that you always fire at the pot on the flop and on the turn when flop is jack/ten/nine high after you've raised pre-flop should know enough to play a weak pair against you because he's getting odds for it. Simply checking every so often throws the maths in that little equation out of wack.
Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 11:58 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I may fire on the flop and perhaps the turn if the board is weak and I have overs, but if he's calling all the way, I'd be pretty cautious about betting the river. Heads up, though, you have the best odds against him, but I'd put him on at least a pair. And if he's a weak player, a pair can seem like a straight.
Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 12:41 pm GMT by Midnight Sun
I'd say it depends. If i put him on a flushdraw and that last suit doesn't show, i like to bet it all the way. Sometimes i get caught, but i do get away with it for the most part. Also, i think it's important to get a qlue on the player, atleast try to read what kind of player he or she is....
Edit/ read your post a bit sloppy,with no flushdraw and he keeps calling, i usally check that river... But still, if i belive that the opponent is kind of fishy and has shown a tendency to chase with any ace in his pocket, i might give it another shot.
Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:18 pm GMT by krakajak
This is a hard one. I'll bet the flop, I usually bet the turn as well, for three reasons: 1) it seems like my opponents never fold a rag flop in a heads up pot when I raised pf. They tend to put me on overs, and peel one off hoping to catch. I get lots of folds on the turn, though, 2) if you check the turn, your opponent, who may have been on draw or may have just been chasing a pair, will surely bet the river, and 3) you may be ahead, and so instead of taking a free card, you are actually ging one to your opponent.
On the river, I'll check AQ/AK, since my opponent isn't likely to call with anything worse, and won't fold anything better. With KQ, it might be worth a bet if you think there is a chance your opponent was chasing an ace.
Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:43 pm GMT by Skribbles
I always get stuck with these. Sometimes they lay down the turn, sometimes the river and sometimes I look like a fool getting called down and beat by a low pair.
I would probably say that people lay down about 40% of the time on the river which isn't exactly profitable but sometimes I just get stuck here.
Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:53 pm GMT by mangothebear
Actually, if they DID lay down 40% of the time to a river bet, that bet is VERY VERY profitable. That would be a goldmine!
Think about it.
Raise preflop + bet on flop = 3 bets
Bet on turn = 2 bets
Two players, so that is at least 10 bets in the pot.
For bluff on the river to be profitable, the 2 bets for 10 bets would have to get him to fold at least 1 out of 5 times. 40% is 2 out of 5 times. This is a very profitable situation if it is true. However, this is only people folding who would beat your hand.
However, I doubt that is the true frequency people would fold on the river to. Besides, most of the time that they actually do fold (miss a draw, whatever), they might have NOTHING and so your AK would win anyway. Better to just show it down than to bet and expect only someone beating you to call.
Posted Thu Jun 16, 2005 6:32 pm GMT by TheSalche
if you have position on the button, and you most likely have the best starting hand (like your KQ), you may want to consider throwing in a flat call every once in a while, then you can use Dave's 4 card rule, one where you're opponent can put you on suited connectors up to J10 or so, but you've actually got paint in your hand, so if either hits you're good (especially if you hit top pair with your hand of course)
this might also save you if the SB or BB has a monster hand
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