detecting river bluff in cash games(longish) |
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Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:34 pm GMT by Carcass
Heard it said and read it a few times that a hand that has you beat will call you down to the river if you are betting into it. However, a draw hand might well play the same until the river. Then on the river a pot size bet comes out from the caller. If the flush didn't show on the river do you call this pot sized bet assuming it's a missed draw virtually every time. This is very tough online when it's difficult to read players and get an idea of an opponent's tendencies unless you play with them often. Here is an example from last night. Don't have the hand history.
I'm late position with KQs. first in with a 3X raise. Folds around to 2 middle position players who call. Flop is Q xx 2 diamonds. I bet about 2/3 pot, 1 fold, 1 call. turn is a rag. i bet 2/3 again. call. river is another under card no diamond. now caller is betting the pot into me($11). I've been burned by a set many times in this situation and agonized over the call and finally layed it down. Do i give credit for a possible set or slow played AQ and lay this down even though i don't consider TPGK to be vulnerable in this situation considering i was the one betting and unraised until the river. This situation arises at least once or twice a session and i am struggling to have a consistent way of making the decision (seem to be incorrect much of the time). Is this what they say is a "crying call"? Assume the busted draw until you see opponents cards.
Any advice or insight as to how others play this would be greatly appreciated.
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Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:43 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I think in this situation it helps with a read on the player who is doing the calling. If he is solid you may very well be up against a set or some kind of strong draw, but it would be odd if he had AQ and checked the flop and called instead of re-raising (in my book). A calling station may have connected and hit two pair or some obscure straight on the board (alot of calling stations will not bet unless they are holding). A maniac/lagg/bluffer might just be attempting to buy the pot. Try to get a fix on their playing style and then ask 'what would they call with on the flop and turn?' and 'what would they check with on the flop' and 'what would they potbet the river with' Its far from a failsafe but it can help.
But this is a decision best made on the turn, not the river. If you are up against a set with a single pair on the turn, you have allready lost unless you have a secondary draw with a str8 or a flush. So my advice is: Get reads and then decide on the turn if you are beat or not.
Though remember: This is a tough decision, if you check behind on the turn you might be giving away a free card or setting yourself up for big bluff on the river. There is often a thin line between being careful and being weak tight.
Posted Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:46 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| tame_deuces wrote: | | ...if you check behind on the turn you might be giving away a free card or setting yourself up for big bluff on the river. |
Soooo true. Bet the turn if you are interested in an unimproved showdown (if your hand has a good chance at improving it's not as important to bet the turn).
Another thing I have found: many passive fish are not comfortable betting until they have seen the river and know they will not be outdrawn. They like to check-call one street, then bet the next street unimproved. I call this a "fish bet" (TM).
So like dueces said, it's player dependant.
Off topic sidenote: the "fish bet" (TM) is good to use when you want to keep the table maniac in check--it will keep most from raising you. It's also good to use in FL if you feel you have the best hand but are not sure. If you check-call the flop and turn, then bet the river it will usually get you an extra bet from a player that was going to check behind on the river, and it will usually keep a player who is ahead from raising.
Posted Thu Jun 16, 2005 11:23 am GMT by Carcass
Thanks for the replies fellows. I find it takes at least 6-10 rounds at a table before i start to read players with any confidence and deuces makes that great point about no free cards. I guess i'll have to continue to make the gut calls until a player shows they deserve more respect. This could cost me alot! I think a very small percentage of people are willing to make that big river bluff when the flop and turn are bet into they have a read on me as a player who will fold TPGK. These are probably the decsions that define winners and losers in hold'em. Making the right calls in just this situation.
About the side note: The fish bet(TM). I like it! I have used this type of bet many times. Not sure if it is really a "fish play" but it is being cautious which can save you from having to make tough marginal decisions. The situation i find myself using it most is when i'm EP and or BB unraised pot with a weak A and 3 or more callers. An A flops and i don't want to disguise a stronger A by betting into it. I figure 75-80% of players will bet a flopped A. I've committed very little to the pot and can easily get away from the hand. I bet the pot if it checks around and we see the turn. I win a small pot with a hand that i didn't really have great expectation for. If i am called, then i have to start playing poker.
Posted Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:06 pm GMT by gol4pro
It really depends on the guy.... is he LAG/ Loose passive/ rock/ aggressive idiot/ donk/ monkey/ fish/ SeanNJ (aka aggressive idiot)?
Out of a LAG, I'm more inclined to call. LAG's like to chase draws, and like to bluff when they miss, so I'm prolly good here 50+%.
Out of a calling station, I'll prolly give it to him this time.... but if he does it again, I'll be a bit suspicious.
Note this however-- "Donkbets", or a player leading out of position, when a check was expected are rarely bluffs.... especially on the flop and turn.
If you raise TT preflop, and UTG calls...
Flop K  7  3 
-- UTG leads for 3/4 of the pot-- you should probably get out.
River Donkbets can be bluffs because it can be a missed draw. A donkbet on a drawless board (i.e. the aforementioned) is almost certainly not a bluff; especially from a calling station.
Weak donkbets, such as min. bets, or like 1/12 of the pot almost always meant that our fish friend is scared, and will simply fold to a decent sized raise. I've also seen fish donkbet draws like this trying to get it for cheap.
Out of a maniac-- I'm probably calling to make him show.
Out of a rock/TAG/Lpsv-- I'm folding more often than not.
The moral of the story is, donkbets are rarely bluffs.
Posted Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:44 pm GMT by krakajak
i call here. AQ is going to rasie on the flop to protect his hand, especially with a flush draw on board. You raised pf and the board is rags other than the Q, so 2 pair is unlikely. He might be slow-playing a set, but the pot is laying you 2:1, you have to take that chance.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:38 pm GMT by gumbie
| gol4pro wrote: |
Out of a rock/TAG/Lpsv-- I'm folding more often than not.
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Nice post in general, but I never saw a rock or TAG play like that.
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