Posted Sat Jun 18, 2005 6:34 pm GMT by Silhouette
I searched online but couldn't find odds this detailed and was wondering if anyone had the #'s on a situation like this.. Normally I can run these myself, but I just woke up and I'm feeling braindead.
I get Js7s in BB and check it. Flop comes 682, one of which is a spade. What're the odds of catching runner runner spades, and/or runner runner for my straight, since it's open ended (even though I only have 3 to it at this point). I folded to a substancial bet, but I thought the pot odds might favor me to a smaller bet.
Any help is greatly appreciated.
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Posted Sat Jun 18, 2005 7:28 pm GMT by TheSalche
alllright ... before i go through the math, im guessing its about 5% or so ... very slim .. here goes though
for the flush
10/48 * 9/47 = 3.989% ... or about 4%
10 spades left in the deck, both of these need to happen, so thats the odds of that
for the straight its a bit trickier, first card you need can be a 4,5,9 or 10, but none of which are spades (avoids double counting) so thats 4 * 3 = 12
12/48 for the first card
second straight card needs to be a 4/5 or 9/10 depending on which one you got first, now here i believe we can count the spades in since we're assuming you didn't get it on the first (may be wrong about this), so thats 2 * 4 = 8
8/47 for the second
12/48 * 8/47 = 4.25%
combine it for 8.25% chance
if you don't count the spades in the second it becomes 6/47 so then 3.19%, and 7.19% total
you need very good pot odds to chase this =)
other THP math wizards check my work and see if it makes sense
Posted Sat Jun 18, 2005 8:32 pm GMT by suitedaces84
There are 8 cards that will give you the open ended. Which will give you the open ended. There are also eight cards that will give you that sweet, sweet gutshot. It's 8/47*8/46 or 8/47*4/46 --> .0296 or .0148. -->1- (1-.0296)*(1-.0148) --> .044
Then to combine the two draw it's: 1-(1-.04)*(1-.044) --> .08224 or 8.224%. I guess that's what Salche got, but there were some minor flaws in his math I just couldn't overlook. 8)
To chase this you must:
a) be getting really tasty #s
b) a really big fish
c) have a good feeling about the hand (always trust your gut)
d) really, really want to give a bad beat
Posted Sat Jun 18, 2005 8:42 pm GMT by TheSalche
| suitedaces84 wrote: |
Then to combine the two draw it's: 1-(1-.04)*(1-.044) --> .08224 or 8.224%. I guess that's what Salche got, but there were some minor flaws in his math I just couldn't overlook. 8)
|
i ... i did something right?
:D :D :D :D :D :D :D
Posted Sat Jun 18, 2005 11:49 pm GMT by snoogins47
| suitedaces84 wrote: | There are 8 cards that will give you the open ended. Which will give you the open ended. There are also eight cards that will give you that sweet, sweet gutshot. It's 8/47*8/46 or 8/47*4/46 --> .0296 or .0148. -->1- (1-.0296)*(1-.0148) --> .044
Then to combine the two draw it's: 1-(1-.04)*(1-.044) --> .08224 or 8.224%. I guess that's what Salche got, but there were some minor flaws in his math I just couldn't overlook. 8)
To chase this you must:
a) be getting really tasty #s
b) a really big fish
c) have a good feeling about the hand (always trust your gut)
d) really, really want to give a bad beat |
I'm always B and D, pretend it's C, and rationalize my way to A. And even I fold here
Posted Sun Jun 19, 2005 2:25 am GMT by Silhouette
Cheers fellas, I appreciate the help.
What'd happened was a preflop raise from the blind with lots of callers who ended up folding after the flop betting, so there was a bit of $ in the pot and I thought it might be worth chasing.. 8.25% is about 11:1 against (offhand?) .. but that's assuming I play to the river.
I'm glad I folded it, it wouldn't have hit anyway, but I've been focusing alot more on pot odds, so I was kind of curious.
Thanks again.
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