Did I play this pair and flush draw hand too aggressively? |
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Posted Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:59 pm GMT by Aves
I've just sat down about half hour ago in the 2/5 NL game and from what I can tell, villian is a bit loose and a bit passive. Even in a heads up pot, most of the time he'll check all the way, or if he bluffs, its usually 1 stab and check/fold if called. I have $260 in front and villian has about $500.
Anyway, villian is in LP, I'm in the BB with 3s 6s. There are 4 limpers and I check. The flop comes 8s Js 3c giving me bottom pair and a flush draw. It checks until a MP guy bets 20. Villian calls the 20, and I check-raise to 80 all day. (How is this play?). MP folds and villian calls. Next card is the 10s. The pot is around $200 and I have about $180 left. I go all in. Villian quickly calls and turns over Ks 7s and I'm drawing dead.
My questions are did I play this hand poorly? Also, what should I have done OOP if a
a) a 3 comes?
b) a 6 comes?
c) a brick comes?
Thanks for any responses.
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Posted Sat Jun 25, 2005 4:23 pm GMT by ViperX883
I think that you were a bit aggressive here.
First, the raise to 80 seems a bit aggressive to me. Yes you have bottom pair with a flush draw, but anyone with a higher pair has you beat at the moment. Plus, even if you make your flush it's not guaranteed that it's good, as you found out. Overvaluing small flushes is a mistake that a lot of people make. For these reasons, I like a call here.
When the spade comes, I think you should bet out. If someone comes over the top, then that most likely means that they are not afraid of the flush and they probably are better, with either a higher flush or a boat. In that case I lay it down. If someone calls, as long as the board doesn't pair, bet out again on the river. The one thing you wanna make sure is that you don't dump your stack with a small flush. If you are raised on the river, then it's a tough call and you will have to make a judgment based on the size of the raise and the player's table image.
Now, if you make two pair or trips on the turn, then it is still a risky proposition. It is very possible that someone has made trips given the postflop betting and that you will in fact be drawing deadin this case too. Nonetheless, I still say bet out in this situation. Given teh board, it seems unlikely that anyone has two pair and trips are a rarity. If you get raised, then again it's at your discretion.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:27 am GMT by howzit
The problem w/your line is that when you miss the turn ~33% of time (assuming 15 outs) you have a big pot and now are an underdog OOP. You also hit gin on the turn and were drawing dead. shitty right?
I'd either put the pressure on LP/MP so. . .
(1) lead and hoped to get raised so you can push. (I like to play a set like this as well)
(2) check-raise all-in after reads. (is MP strong? LP call look like a flush draw? Will LP make a mistake and fold a flush draw here?)
All in all, if you don't think LP/MP are going to be folding, i like leading at this pot a lot more. If you only get called, reevaluate the turn.
FYI:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 3s 373331 30.56 837550 68.55 10878 0.89 0.310
Ks 7s 837550 68.55 373331 30.56 10878 0.89 0.690
a 2.3:1 dog on the flop against a higher flush draw.
Also, ran against a few hypothetical MP hand.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 3s 206470 21.45 751418 78.06 4710 0.49 0.216
Ks 7s 311946 32.41 645942 67.10 4710 0.49 0.326
As Jh 439472 45.65 518416 53.86 4710 0.49 0.458
6s 3s 182803 18.99 773632 80.37 6163 0.64 0.192
Ks 7s 354715 36.85 601720 62.51 6163 0.64 0.371
Qh Jh 418917 43.52 537518 55.84 6163 0.64 0.437
6s 3s 118757 12.34 840033 87.27 3808 0.40 0.125
Ks 7s 301303 31.30 657487 68.30 3808 0.40 0.314
8d 8h 538730 55.97 420060 43.64 3808 0.40 0.561
These numbers are awful. All the more reason to lead the pot, get more info and then reevaluate the turn.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:41 am GMT by howzit
| Aves wrote: |
My questions are did I play this hand poorly? Also, what should I have done OOP if a
a) a 3 comes?
b) a 6 comes?
c) a brick comes?
Thanks for any responses. |
Given how you played this hand, I'd say push on every situation.
LP called a bet then called a check-raise. I'd put him on high spades.
Take your time cuz your decision will be for your stack.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 1:31 pm GMT by Aves
Thanks for the replies guys. I think both of your suggestions of either leading the flop hoping to get raised and pushing or calling the flop and leading the turn are much better lines than what I did. I'll try to remember them for next time I'm in the same situation.
I also realize that if I run into a set or 2 pair, they won't be folding and I'll be a pretty big underdog.
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