short stack, late in tourney |
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Posted Sun Jun 26, 2005 10:09 pm GMT by krakajak
My biggest problem area is playing a short stack late in a tourney. It seems like everytime I try to make a move I get called, and bust out. I wonder whether i'd be better off shutting down and hoping to cost into the money.
Here's an example:
Pokerroom $5 MTT. 53 left, top 40 pays. The payout structure is something like 40-21 get $12, 20-11 get $18, and the money increases every spot after that.
I have about 4,500, blinds are 400/800 (no antes). people are going out pretty rapidly, and I figure I can see the money if I can last 2 more rounds of blinds. This shouldn't be a problem if I fold every hand.
Then I get AJo, 3 off the button in an unopened pot. I push.
Is this a bad play? I mean, folding every hand is just so boring, I hate doing it, but I really don't see what's to be gained from it. Ranking doesn't really matter unless I bust out or make the final table. Since I don't have much of a chance of making the final table, wouldn't I be better off playing not to bust out?
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Posted Sun Jun 26, 2005 10:40 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Unless you feel you have a real shot at getting deep into the tourney to make real money, I would go with the safe strategy when you're short-stacked in MTT and wait to finish in the money. AJo is not a real great hand, so why risk getting no money by pushing with it? If you;re trying to steal the blinds, you might just as well get them by betting 2x or 3x the BB.
Posted Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:36 pm GMT by Fat Tony
i'd say you got a bit impatient, you had at least a couple more rounds before being blinded out. i like your thinking of trying to win rather than just trying to coast into a money position, especially since the payouts are pretty tiny unless you make the final table. if the AJ were suited i'd like that play a lot more. your move wasn't really "bad" per se, just more aggressive than necessary. (but i can't throw stones since i make the occasional bold move myself) 8)
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:11 am GMT by ShoelessJoe
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | I would go with the safe strategy when you're short-stacked in MTT and wait to finish in the money. |
I think it was Daniel Negranu who said it, that if you truly want to earn money playing poker, you can't just keep trying to finish in the money, sometimes you have to take that chance and gamble around bubble time, and to tell you the truth I really agree.
All of us know that bubble time is when people tighten up the most, that's when you should loosen up. Say you push with 10x the BB with 33. Yea, someone might have you beat 80-20, or you might get called with AK, so what? You still have outs. Even though you might get called by AK or AJ, there's always that chance that everyone wants to wait to get into that cash, so they aren't trying to gamble right then, which is exactly what your doing. Remember, there's always the chance that they could fold!
In my opinion, I don't think that it's such a bad move to push with that AJo, or that 33 short stacked late.
Let's look at this from a mathematical perspective, assuming that you're a pretty good player.
Say that 10 people cash in a 100 person tourney. It's down to 15 people, and your short stacked. You push pre-flop in late position with 12x BB with 33 after everyone limps. No caller, so you now have 15x BB. Next hand you get AT. Same thing, except one caller. He has 99. Now you win that 50% of the time. Let's say you just fold that hand going with Starlight's strategy, then you MIGHT eek your way into 10th, and get a little more than your money back.
Now let's assume that you win that hand 50% of the time, that means you'll have about 35x BB and be in a position to place. Say you get 5th in the tourney that you won the hand, and obviously don't win any money in the tourney that you lose. Now take the profits from finishing 10th twice, or finishing 5th once and out of the money once. I think all of us here will take that 5th place finish.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:17 am GMT by Skribbles
I don't think a push here is the right play. There are alot of other factors here though. How big of a stack did the blinds have? Were they close to busting out on the bubble? Was there any big stacks still to act?
I would have have raised about 3-4x BB here hoping for a steal. Then there is really only 3 things that could happen.
1) You pick up the blinds.
2) You get called and see a flop and if you catch a piece of it then you can push in with much better confidence.
3) Someone re-raises you all-in and you then you got a decision to make.
Never try and just play to make the money. The MTTs I played this weekend, I was doing this and I hated it. My bankroll was so low that I needed some winnings. This guranteed that I would not win and not even make the final table. You have to take your chances around the bubble and win some races if you want to win.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 1:12 pm GMT by krakajak
I really think this is a push or fold situation. If I raise 4x BB, I'm betting half my stack. This commits me to calling a PF re-raise, and leaves me open to getting bluffed on the flop.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 1:20 pm GMT by Loonbat
| krakajak wrote: | | My biggest problem area is playing a short stack late in a tourney. |
The best way to combat this problem is NOT to have a shortstack at said tourney's end ... geez!
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:36 pm GMT by NickFlynn
This a push or fold situation - there is no way you can raise about half your stack and see what happens.
I think I tend towards folding here, because of your position. I think I'd push on the button if I was opening, but from middle position, you've got 5 players to go through. In that position with the size of your stack, I'm only pushing AQ+, 88+.
- Nick
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:40 pm GMT by Fat Tony
| krakajak wrote: | | I really think this is a push or fold situation. |
with 4,500 i think you still have the option of just calling and seeing if you can catch a piece of the flop. if you don't hit and end up folding however, the next you play would definitely be push or fold.
| Quote: | | If I raise 4x BB, I'm betting half my stack. This commits me to calling a PF re-raise, and leaves me open to getting bluffed on the flop. |
correct. you would pretty much have to call any raise so it's better IMO to be on the offensive rather than being forced into making a defensive call when your tournament is on the line.
Posted Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:53 pm GMT by NickFlynn
I'm really against just calling here. There are five guys behind you, and you are going to have to fold to a raise. It's pretty likely that anyone aggressive and deep stacked, or even one of the two, is going to raise you.
I think calling is a recipe for getting yourself further short stacked.
- Nick
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