suited pocket, what are odds of a flush/draw at flop? |
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Posted Thu Feb 12, 2004 5:19 pm GMT by dirty_c
I'm just beginning to explore poker odds, and I'm not sure about the math on this. How do I calculate the odds of a flush draw, and better yet a flush, at the flop?
Note: I'm a newb to poker, and I've been calling on almost all suited cards 9 and up, or on any suited connected cards. Suppose I'm goin for a flush and I only have a flush draw at the flop (and suppose NO pair 10 or higher), but my cards are suited faces, do I stay in?
TIA for all advice
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Posted Thu Feb 12, 2004 5:48 pm GMT by Dave B
For any odds you need to calculate your outs. I use the 2% rule to make it fast and simple (estimated from 1 card out of 48-52 cards is roughly 2%). Each out has a 2% chance of hitting.
Flush draw-4 to the flush 9 outs times 2 = 18%. 2 cards to come so roughly 36%.
Flush draw-3 to the flush 10 outs on the turn and 9 outs on the river but need both to fall so 20% times 18% or roughly 4%.
FYI-I dont play low connectors. Too frustrating to get beat by K 7 suited when I have 65. Also-look at the pot odds, if there are 2 other callers and you have the A or dont put them on a flush call. Also-so you hit the flush on the turn and the 4th suited card hits on the river, now your low suited connector is worthless.
Posted Thu Feb 12, 2004 5:52 pm GMT by Sundance
I assume you are saying if you have four to the flush on the flop and two suited face cards in your hand and you want to know if you should stay on the hand or not.... well it depends... as all poker answers do...
- the number of players still in the hand with you at the flop; fewer players will increase your odds that you have a winner if you catch the flush, although it may be a smaller pot. If lots of players are still in and betting I would toss them in the muck, unless the table was 'very' loose.
- who's betting, in front of you/behind you, are you betting/checking/calling? In early position I would check and call, in middle or late position I would make a token bet, even on the draw, this bet will let others assume you have top pair and if you hit the flush you can make a good killing..
Back to your answer, it all depends.. Me, I would like to see the turn card and then base my decision on the betting if I want to stay in for the river.
And I would like to see that turn card as cheaply as possible.
I am sure someone will post here soon with the exact odds to hit that flush. 
Posted Fri Feb 13, 2004 5:47 pm GMT by dirty_c
Let me simplify the question. We'll assume that we can't really read much about how other players are playing, so were going strictly by probability.
Suppose I have two suited spade cards and both are atleast 7 or higher, but not particularly strong (say....8s, 9s). Now suppose everyone is checking, so I decide to do so also. The flop comes 4s, 2s, 10h. I have no pair, and odds are that someone does, but if they do its a weak one. Suppose now nearly everyone checks, but one player makes the smallest bet possible, so it looks like no ones got anything much (probably praying for a flush also). IF someone has pocket face spades, they WILL beat me if I make my hand. At any rate....do I stay to see the turn?
Basically, what are the odds of hitting the flush at the turn?
Posted Fri Feb 13, 2004 7:20 pm GMT by Earthshine
Well, if you flop a 4-flush (4 suited cards to a flush), then your odds of making the flush are about 35.6% by the river. Whether to stay in or not depends on the situation (as the others have mentioned, position, pot odds, how others are betting, etc...).
For me, I generally will not go for a flush unless I have the Ace. Then you can be confident that your flush will hold up (unless the board pairs and you have full house posibilities).
But also keep in mind, if your hole cards are suited, you only have a 3% better chance of winning the pot... Because with suited hole cards, you will only flop a 4-flush less than 10% of the time, and you will only flop a flush about 1% of the time. General rule: Don't play for a flush unless you have the Ace, or unless the pot is so big it's worth the payoff if you hit it. (Don't play any draw unless the pot odds are in your favor) But there is nothing worse than hitting your flush with 9,8 suited, only to be beaten by someone holding A,6 suited... or 10,2 suited for that matter.
Posted Sun Feb 15, 2004 2:42 am GMT by dirty_c
quote="Earthshine"But also keep in mind, if your hole cards are suited, you only have a 3% better chance of winning the pot... Because with suited hole cards, you will only flop a 4-flush less than 10% of the time, and you will only flop a flush about 1% of the time. quote
So what you're saying then is that the only smart pocket suited cards to play are ones that have an ace in them. First of all, the odds of hitting the flush draw is less than 10%. Even if this does happen, you still only have a 19.1% chance of hitting it at the flop. Basically, never play cards solely because they are suited.
Could you show me the math that gave you the numbers of 3, 10, and 1%, respectively?
Posted Tue Mar 30, 2004 12:30 pm GMT by DocHolliday
I'm not sure where the math comes in for the 3% better chance, but I do recall reading something like that in one of the many books on poker.
However, if you have 2 suited cards, here is your chance for hitting a flush on the flop:
11 cards are available and you have 50, 49, and 48 outs respectively, on the three flopped cards. So your numerator is 11*10*9 and your denominator is 50*49*48, or 990/117600, which is 0.8%.
It gets a little more complicated to calculate a 4-flush on the flop, but would go something like this, if I recall my stats class correctly. You have the same situation as above, which is 11 available outs and 3 flopped cards. Basically, the first card is 11/50 to hit your suit. The second is 10/49. If the first two hit, then the third can't hit or you would have your flush already, so the 3rd cannot be your suit, which is 39/48. Multiply those three fractions, and you come up with 3.65%. Since it doesn't matter which order the three cards come in, this is a pretty good number. So I think the 10% number was a bit high, but still accurate in that this is less than 10%.
The odds of completing a flush altogether with all seven cards if you have 2 suited pocket cards is, if I recall correctly, somewhere between 15-20%. Therefore, it is usually only worthwhile to play suited cards if they are high cards or are connected, giving you more outs for a better hand such as a straight or two high pair.
Doc
Posted Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:43 am GMT by JohnnyCache
quote="dirty_c" | Earthshine wrote: | But also keep in mind, if your hole cards are suited, you only have a 3% better chance of winning the pot... Because with suited hole cards, you will only flop a 4-flush less than 10% of the time, and you will only flop a flush about 1% of the time. quote
So what you're saying then is that the only smart pocket suited cards to play are ones that have an ace in them. First of all, the odds of hitting the flush draw is less than 10%. Even if this does happen, you still only have a 19.1% chance of hitting it at the flop. Basically, never play cards solely because they are suited.
Could you show me the math that gave you the numbers of 3, 10, and 1%, respectively? |
You can do OK with KQs, KJs, K10s, cause a pair of K, q, j, or 10s can take you a fair distance into a hand. . .
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