Posted Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:10 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, I mulled over this after finishing 3rd in a Stud MTT. When it got down to 3 players, I began stealing the antes on virtually every hand. I was in seat 3... seat 5 was ultra-tight and would not call or re-raise my bring-in or raise without a wired pair or 3 high cards to a straight or flush. Seat 6 was slightly looser, but still folded most of the time, either to my raise on 3rd street, or to a bet on 4th street if he did not catch a pair.
I estimate that I successfully stole the ante approximately 5 out of every 6 hands. At this point, the antes are 1000, the bring-in is 2000, and the openning raise is 6000 total (6000/12000 stakes).
Now, assuming my opponents do not catch on to my strategy, and assuming they will not call or re-raise without a pair, I ought to raise pre-flop every time if I succeed 5/6 of the time, correct? That means in 6 trials I net 14000 (4000 x 5 hands - 6000), for an EV of 2333.
Now where I made my mistake was continuing to try and bully the other players when they would call my initial raise on 3rd street, or worse, re-raise. Since I had an EV of 2333 by folding and waiting to steal again, I should have laid down anything less than a pair of Kings or better--my rationale, however, was that they may fold to a scare card on 4th street, and I did not want them thinking they could counter steal just by re-raising me. However, I got stupid and tried to bluff a guy out with a pair of 6's showing... I think he was wrong to call down with just Jacks, but I unnecessarily risked a lot of chips when I stood to gain more by just stealing the antes.
Concur?
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:54 pm GMT by Tadzio
Getting into the habit of blind stealing is a fairly dangerous strat, even with positive EV. It's not a bad idea, and I've been trying to use it in short handed tournaments the last few days, but you have to be willing to change your strategy. I think that, yes, you should have folded once reraised, and you should have seriously considered check/folding once called. But after folding you shouldn't go back to blind-stealing, especially if you get re-raised twice in a period of four hands (someone's decided to turn your steals into positive EV for them).
Don't worry about people thinking counter-steal vs you. Use this to your advantage. Once you fold to a re-raise players will "make" you as someone that bluffs alot and can be pushed off their bluffs easily. Because of this, you should tighten up your play, but stay aggressive. The next time you get a solid hand, play it like you're stealing the blinds on pre-flop and flop and you might just get a re-raise from someone hoping to catch your "bluff." Take 15 seconds or longer to "think" about it, and then call, and check/call the next street. Once you're to the river, decide the chances of your having the best hand and go all-in or check/fold depending on your estimation. Remember, if you think you're behind at any point, fold (slow-playing a semi-bluff is bad for you). Assuming you have the best hand, or your opponent(s) fold, you'll be back to making positive EV, and may even double up a few times, or knock a few people out of the tourney (depending on your stack).
I'm pretty new to poker, but I won a sit n' go yesterday doing this, so at least versus the opponents I'm facing it seems to work. Most players, once they've made their mind up about someone at the table, won't change their mind unless they're given a good reason to (I.E. unless they lose a lot of money to you). And pre-flop folding doesn't, imo, register as much as getting caught blind-stealing. So if you get caught, let them catch you and turn that info against them.
Posted Tue Aug 02, 2005 7:50 pm GMT by matrix_x
you screwed up - and he got lucky, basically...
Posted Wed Aug 03, 2005 1:25 am GMT by snoogins47
| Quote: | | Getting into the habit of blind stealing is a fairly dangerous strat, even with positive EV. It's not a bad idea, and I've been trying to use it in short handed tournaments the last few days, |
If by "dangerous" you mean "with very large antes and blinds, and people who don't defend enough, it is probably the most important strategy you can employ late in a tournament" then yes I agree.
but you have to be willing to change your strategy. | Quote: |
Yes, you probably should pure-steal with rags every time you're in the steal position. People may not be good, but they'll catch on eventually. |
Posted Wed Aug 03, 2005 12:03 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
While it may be +EV to steal every hand, the more you do it the more you are going to have an effect on how they play.
Sooner or later they are going to play back at you, the trick is, i spose, to be selective so that they don't know when you're stealing and when you actually have it.
|
|
