Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:47 pm GMT by Dave B
Playing 2/4NL, $400 buy in, one player has A  Q the other has K  K  , flop K 8 4 .
AQ has $1k
KK has $600
Preflop, pot raised to 20, 3 callers, $86 preflop
KK bets 150 (2 fold) and AQ moves all in.
He claimed that he would make that move every time. He said the only hand that could call him was KK or maybe AK.
I still would have trouble risking $500+ on a draw, am I too much of a pussy at NL or is this truly the correct play? If I am right and he wont call, then I win just over 200, if I am wrong, I am a 32-50% chance to win $650. I would say at least 75% of the time, I will take down the pot, so the odds seem to make it seem like the correct play, but still, it is a lot to risk w/ Ace high.
BTW-he missed, set of Ks held up.
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Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:55 pm GMT by ShoelessJoe
Umm, he could call with AK, KK, AA, 88, or 44.
I'm sorry, but no one lays middle set and you have to have a helluva read to lay bottum set or an overpair like aces with that board.
So you have 5 hands that will call. Maybe even KQ or KJ.
Just because the guy has 1 over, doesn't negate the fact that he's pushing with a flush draw. This guy could have easily gotten away from the hand. He only had $86 invested and was last to act, thus had enough information to know that it was time to lay the flush draw.
Although I generally like aggressive plays to say that you make this play everytime is pushing the maniac button.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:02 pm GMT by Dave B
He really only had $20 invested, 6 from blinds, $20 from KK and $40 from folders.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:21 pm GMT by ScanX
Well if he's certain the player only calls w/ KK, his play is correct.
But he has to be damn sure of that...I dont like risking 1.5 buy-in just on a draw...especially when my A aint an out.
The $150 bet in a $80 pot is weird though :)
As shoelessjoe said it's true that any set calls or maybe AK and I would add AA too. Although I guess it's the original raiser who bets $150 so u have to assume he doesnt have 88 or 44.
was that 6max or full handed by the way ?
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:29 pm GMT by Dave B
full table-10 handed.
The guy seemed like a solid player that had respect from everyone else. It seemed like a bit of a stretch to me, but I didnt say anything at the time.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:37 pm GMT by BeerWench13
I personally wouldn't push like that with just a flush draw. The only way I can see pushing over the top is if I figured the overbet ($150 on an $86 pot) to be a big bluff. Even then, I can't say I'd push in $1k for a measley $236 unless I was holding the stone cold nuts. A re-raise to test my opponents strength, I could possibly see, but all-in? That's a bit too risky for my blood. That's like spending next month's mortgage payment on the grounds that I am planning on playing the lotto on Friday and might win.
Where was this game, Dave? Did you get his name? I wanna play him.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:38 pm GMT by howzit
What hands is villain overbetting the flop after opening for $20? KK, AA or mmmaaybe AK. If your friend can get the latter two to laydown, that would be very, very profitable. But go back to him and ask him what hand ranges will open raise preflop in EP, overbet the flop and fold to a raise?
And to think a street ahead, if I raise/call (not all-in) and i miss the turn, what am I going to do then?
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:41 pm GMT by howzit
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | The only way I can see pushing over the top is if I figured the overbet ($150 on an $86 pot) to be a big bluff. |
beer, you want him to bluff off all his chips.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:43 pm GMT by howzit
| Dave B wrote: | Playing 2/4NL, $400 buy in, one player has A Q the other has K K , flop K 8 4 .
AQ has $1k
KK has $600
Preflop, pot raised to 20, 3 callers, $86 preflop
KK bets 150 (2 fold) and AQ moves all in.
He claimed that he would make that move every time. He said the only hand that could call him was KK or maybe AK.
I still would have trouble risking $500+ on a draw, am I too much of a pussy at NL or is this truly the correct play? If I am right and he wont call, then I win just over 200, if I am wrong, I am a 32-50% chance to win $650. I would say at least 75% of the time, I will take down the pot, so the odds seem to make it seem like the correct play, but still, it is a lot to risk w/ Ace high.
BTW-he missed, set of Ks held up. |
I routinely risk my chips on a draw, bluff, semi-bluff, whatever. But not after action like this.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:49 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | beer, you want him to bluff off all his chips. |
I'm not sure I comprehend this statement. Could you elaborate a bit?
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:56 pm GMT by Dave B
This was on the Prima network. If I am crushing the NL tables there, it must be VERY weak!
The action wasnt that unusual, it was just unusual from this player and the fact that these were the 2 big stacks at the table. $1100 pot was not normal for this game.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:08 pm GMT by TheSalche
noob question ... which sites are on the prima network?
/noob
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:19 pm GMT by Dave B
Royal Vegas, Gaming Club, Golden Tiger, maybe more? They are all skins, look similar, same players-so you dont know which site others are playing at.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:07 pm GMT by ScanX
| BeerWench13 wrote: | That's like spending next month's mortgage payment on the grounds that I am planning on playing the lotto on Friday and might win.
Where was this game, Dave? Did you get his name? I wanna play him. |
You shouldnt think in terms of "rent" or "mortgage" or whatever.
You have to forget the value of what u are playing...just think it's a buy-in, like one at NL25.
You say you want to play him but the guy's play isnt that horrible...it's just a ballsy move...one I wouldnt do unless I had a strong read on the opponent or I was willing to gamble.
Posted Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:13 pm GMT by howzit
Beer, normally I'd have to think long and hard before going forward w/this hand. I doubt i'll get a free card on the turn so the effective odds are even worse. Especially if you pick a up a non-club broadway card.
Let's pretend you have a phenomenal read on this villain and figure out he's bluffing. You have a decent draw and therefore a lot of equity against villain. In other words, it's +EV for you to have him stick around. Once you raise, shitty hands can easily fold while made hands or monster draws can three bet you all-in.
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:40 am GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | You say you want to play him but the guy's play isnt that horrible...it's just a ballsy move...one I wouldnt do unless I had a strong read on the opponent or I was willing to gamble. |
I would certainly like to be sitting at the table with trip K's on the flop and have someone move in on me. Wouldn't you? That was my point.
| Quote: | You shouldnt think in terms of "rent" or "mortgage" or whatever.
You have to forget the value of what u are playing...just think it's a buy-in, like one at NL25. |
It's a simile. My point was that he risked $1k for $236. Do the math there. I was putting in reference his math with the odds of winning the lottery. Reread my post again. When I sit at the table and cash in for chips, they become just that....chips.
| Quote: | | Once you raise, shitty hands can easily fold while made hands or monster draws can three bet you all-in. |
Firstly, it's NL. There is no three bet.
Secondly, if you think it's a bluff, but aren't 100% sure, why push everything in? I'd rather lose or gain $300 than risk $1k if I was unsure in my read. To me, the hand just seems like a bully move gone awry. Like the guy said, there were only a few hands that could call him. I'm guessing he didn't think his opponent(s) had those hands.
| Quote: | | Beer, normally I'd have to think long and hard before going forward w/this hand. I doubt i'll get a free card on the turn so the effective odds are even worse. Especially if you pick a up a non-club broadway card. |
Ditto. Read the first few lines of my original post. Personally, I would have no problem folding this hand on the flop once my opponent overbet the pot and killed my odds, unless my read was that he was on a bluff. Then I'd reraise (not push all-in) to take it down, but rethink my read if he came back over top or smooth called. Like I said, I'd prefer to risk $300 to $1k if I wasn't 100% sure that my opponent was bluffing.
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:06 am GMT by Dave B
He was really only risking under $600, since that is all that the KK had.
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:08 am GMT by BeerWench13
Good point, Dave. I forgot he was the big stack at the table.
Like I said, I wouldn't have had any problem folding that hand when the odds went out the window on the $150 bet on the flop.
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 10:09 am GMT by ShoelessJoe
I don't see the need to discuss this anymore. The guy was a moron, made a stupid move and lost. He's the type of person who continually pays. More power to him. 
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 10:40 am GMT by Dave B
Honestly, I dont think it was a bad play. Poker is about pressure, with the pot and that flop, his cards and potential outs, opponents hand, it would have been a very tough call w/ anything but KK. Yes, lower sets could call as well, but can you call that w/ QQ JJ 10s, or even KQ or AK?
I think that the odds say that it was a decent play. I just dont think I could do it. Which is why I asked, if I was a pussy, or can you play great NL ring games and NOT make this move. Can you be very cautious and still be successful? Every pro I hear, all successful players I watch are willing to make a big move if they think that they can take down a pot, even if they are behind. This is where I struggle. I typically can only make a move this big w/ the nuts or near it.
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:55 pm GMT by snoogins47
We'll ignore the metagame for now, and just look at this hand.
For those of you who are saying this was an awful play and lean toward folding:
Lets qualify this with a few points:
1: Folding, from the vantage point of this individual decision, carries an expectation of precisely 0.
2: Therefore, folding is the optimum play only if every other decision carries a negative expectation.
3: We should do everything we can to optimize our earn while at the poker table.
Okay, if we agree on these, now we just have to decide if his push is profitable.
If we say he will call every time he holds KK, 88, AK, KQ, or AA...
When called we win the pot roughly 37.7% of the time.
If villain's stack was 600 preflop, here's the relevant numbers.
Push size = 150 (the bet0 + 430 (the rest of his stack) = 580
Pot before the push = 236
Win when called = 37.7% of the time
If these numbers are legitimate, then our opponent must fold only around 20% of the time for the push to carry a positive expectation.
I can't say for sure this is the case, but I'd wager it probably is. Now, our equity when called DOES diminish if he tightens up his calling range, but his tightening up makes our push much more profitable, since he's folding so much more often (and our equity can't drop below around 26%)
I think chances are very good that his push is profitable. It's often a small edge, but it is, bankroll allowing, a better play than folding. This is of course, assuming that there are hands that our opponent folds 
If we add in the fact that if called and our hand shown down, the entire table has the seed planted in their head that we can push on the flop with draws. If we also push with sets and things of that nature.. well, you see where I'm going with this.
Posted Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:06 pm GMT by BeerWench13
I see all points here. Personally, and, just to clarify, I, personally, only me, no one else, would not push here. In a cash game, I'd prefer to get tangled in hands where I'm the favorite, not the underdog. In my opinion, and, again, this is just my personal opinion, the amount in the pot would not justify risking my entire stack when I only have $20 invested. I see both sides of the story, and, like I said, I understand the push and don't think it's necessarily a bad play depending on the read you have on your opponent. However, since no one who is posting on this thread is the guy who made this move, it's impossible to know what his read may have been. So, I can't say that his play was wrong, but I'm saying that I, personally, me, myself and I would not have done so unless I had a good read that my opponent was bluffing.
Posted Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:45 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| snoogins47 wrote: | | When called we win the pot roughly 37.7% of the time. |
Minor point: villian will fill up nearly one in three times, so AQ about a 3:1 dog, not a 2:1 dog.
Beer: it's easy to say "I'd love to have someone bluff me all-in when I have the nuts" but the vast majority of the time AQ's oppoent will not have KK. It's not fun to play against players who force you to make difficult desicions.
Posted Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:57 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | It's not fun to play against players who force you to make difficult desicions. |
Actually, I prefer this, because I think it helps me learn to be a better player. I'd much rather play against someone better than I am. I always want to learn. JMHO, of course.
Posted Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:08 pm GMT by suitedaces84
I'm all about the bling. 
Posted Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:19 pm GMT by snoogins47
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | snoogins47 wrote: | | When called we win the pot roughly 37.7% of the time. |
Minor point: villian will fill up nearly one in three times, so AQ about a 3:1 dog, not a 2:1 dog.
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| snoogins47 wrote: | | If we say he will call every time he holds KK, 88, AK, KQ, or AA... |
Posted Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:46 pm GMT by suitedaces84
That explains it.
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