flop odds: hit an ace or trips |
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Posted Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:00 am GMT by howzit
what are the flop odds on hitting an ance OR trips.
Eg. A8o.
need to see trip 8s, trip aces or a single ace, or quads.
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Posted Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:58 am GMT by Muck
This is my quick maths shot at it, so feel free to correct but it looks like:
117,600 possible flops
21168 possible Axx, xAx, xxA combinations
so 1 in 6
864 possible AAx, AxA, xAA combinations
so 1 in 136
Same for trip 8s
6 possible AAA combinations
1 in 19600
So toal outs would be 21168 + 864 + 864 + 6 = 22902
Chance to trip up with aces or eights, or hit your ace, or hit quad aces is:
1 in 5.134
Posted Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:24 pm GMT by gol4pro
50 cards left in the deck
50c3 total flops = (50x49x48)/(3x2x1) = 19600 possible flops
probability of AAA= (3c3)/(50c3) = 1/19600
probability of AAx(where x is not an 8) OR 88x (where x is not an A) = (3c2)(44c1)/(50c3) = 6x44/19600 = 264/19600 = 33/2450 = about 1/80
probability of AAx (x is not an 8) = 1/2(33/2450) = 33/4900 = about 1/160
A single Ace (but not 2 pair, trips, or quads) = (3c1)(44c2)/(50c3) = (3x946)/19600 = 2838/19600 = 1419/9800 = 14.4%
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