TPTK, facing turn-checkraise |
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Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:22 am GMT by howzit
1-2NL
Hero: $400ish
Villain: $1200, probably one of the players who I would even consider better than me. Loves to bet draws and is generally an action-type player.
He also loves suited connectors.
Folded to me on button, I make it $15 w/AQo
Villain calls, callin station BB calls. Nothing out of the ordinary here.
Flop: ($45) Q-7-6, one heart.
check, check, bet $40. Villain calls. BB folds.
Turn($125): 10 
I bet $80, he makes it $280 almost instantly.
ideas?
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Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:43 am GMT by 1988 TR
You have one of those judgement type hands....
I unfortunately might have to let this go here - 89, Q10, 10 10 are all pretty realistic possiblities.
If you call, I think most of the time you would be behind here (of course not always, but most of the time) and when you are ahead, he is going to have a few outs.
If I get raised on the turn huge like that & I only have one pair, I know I'm in trouble. With big bets like that, one pair is usually beat - Especially when it is not an over pocket pair to the board. Would feel this way even more so because you bet your hand strongly the entire way through & yet he is not scared. You raised pre flop, made a solid bet on the flop, and followed it up with a solid bet on the turn. He can't think you are bluffing here, yet he feels strong enough to play back at you. There are a lot of hands (trips, st) that you would have no outs against.
If you call, you are hoping he has something like KQ or a flush draw - I hate having to call a big bet HOPING he has some kind of limited, specific hand.
Was the Q on the flop a heart? Is your queen a heart? If no to both, he could be making this play with KQ QJ AQ .
Heck, he could have even been slow playing trip 6's or 7's on the flop & when that scary turn card came, he decided no more free cards.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:44 am GMT by Muck
Was the Q the heart on the flop? Would he call that kind of PF raise with 76 when it was short handed and he had a bad position?
Would he play 2 low pair fast and re-raise the flop if he thought he was up against overcards?
From your info I’d suspect he had 87 The T would have brought him a flush and gutshot draw which enticed him to try a semi-bluff.
However there are a lot of other hands here that could beat you : Tough decision, I’d probably fold it but I’m pretty conservative. But that's a nice pot, with those odds I'd be tempted to come back over the top with an all-in.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:53 am GMT by 1988 TR
| Muck wrote: |
However there are a lot of other hands here that could beat you : Tough decision, I’d probably fold it but I’m pretty conservative. But that's a nice pot, with those odds I'd be tempted to come back over the top with an all-in. |
I'm not at all conservative, but I would still probably let this one go unless I didn't respect my opponent.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:13 am GMT by howzit
i hated the check-raise but the bet size is what got me thinking.
the $200 bet, although not pot-sized would force any one-pair hands out and yet i didn't read him for a straight. If he does this w/a straight he is losing tremendous equity.
I got it down to a slowplayed KK/AA, small two pair, AQ, QT, and mmmmaaybe a set. Although this didn't feel like a set. I guess he could have a 87 but I feel like he'd lead the turn and block bet. Check-raising w/pair + FD + gutshot doesn't make sense to me.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:43 am GMT by 1988 TR
| howzit wrote: | i hated the check-raise but the bet size is what got me thinking.
the $200 bet, although not pot-sized would force any one-pair hands out and yet i didn't read him for a straight. If he does this w/a straight he is losing tremendous equity.
I got it down to a slowplayed KK/AA, small two pair, AQ, QT, and mmmmaaybe a set. Although this didn't feel like a set. I guess he could have a 87 but I feel like he'd lead the turn and block bet. Check-raising w/pair + FD + gutshot doesn't make sense to me. |
I guess you already know it wasn't a set, but I'm not sure why you would feel it wasn't?
A flush draw came and also the 10 came that could make a lot of 4 straight hands (Any 9, J, or 6 AK or AJ) & the guy wouldn't want to someone to catch a one card straight on the river - It's pretty much how I would have played a set.
| howzit wrote: | | got it down to a slowplayed KK/AA, small two pair, AQ, QT, and mmmmaaybe a set. |
And the problem is these are all beating you and you are tied with 1 of them.....
I guess we can toss AK into the realm of possiblities - 2 overcards, the nut flush draw, and a gutshot (although you haven't specified weather the A in your hand is a or not).
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 10:49 am GMT by 1988 TR
| howzit wrote: |
Check-raising w/pair + FD + gutshot doesn't make sense to me. |
Well he could have checked hoping he could see a cheap river & you bet enough where he felt like a good semi-bluff was in order. If he did have all those outs, he could go all in & take it down right there & if you called, he had a ton of outs.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:23 pm GMT by Loonbat
Freerolling with AQ hearts, maybe ... ?
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:00 pm GMT by Phil14312
Smells like a semi-bluff with 78 . You said he loves to bet draws, plus he also seems like the player that knows you are capable of laying down TPTK.
If he does have 7 8 , he has a ton of outs (any 9, plus 12 more hearts, plus 2 8's plus 2 7's = 25 outs!
I say lay it down, I am not even counting the fact when you are already behind/drawing dead against a set or a made straight on the turn with 89.
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:08 pm GMT by Loonbat
| Phil14312 wrote: |
If he does have 7 8 , he has a ton of outs (any 9, plus 12 more hearts, plus 2 8's plus 2 7's = 25 outs!
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WOW - how many hearts are in the decks you play with?? And there are 9 9s ...
Posted Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:44 pm GMT by Skribbles
| Phil14312 wrote: | Smells like a semi-bluff with 78 . You said he loves to bet draws, plus he also seems like the player that knows you are capable of laying down TPTK.
If he does have 7 8 , he has a ton of outs (any 9, plus 12 more hearts, plus 2 8's plus 2 7's = 25 outs!
I say lay it down, I am not even counting the fact when you are already behind/drawing dead against a set or a made straight on the turn with 89. |
I thinks you're a little off.
If he had 78 , his remaining outs would be:
9 hearts for a flush
3 Nines for a straight (not counting the 9 of )
3 Eights
2 Sevens
Total of 17 outs.
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