Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:25 pm GMT by age_of_sages
Ok, the situation:
$2/4 limit game. 4 people see the flop and you're allowed to limp in bb with 86o
Flop: 9  7  5
Now, let's say you KNOW someone has a flush draw, someone has bottom pair with an over card and someone has 2 big overcards.
Do you check this flop? Or bet out?
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Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:52 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I bet here, I think. I don't see much of an opportunity to protect your hand since I don't think you can accurately predict that someone will bet from a later position, and flush draws are likely to hang around anyway.
Bet it for value and slow down if another heart hits later.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:21 pm GMT by Fat Tony
i think you absolutely have to bet here. why would you give the guy on the flush draw a free card(s)? you HAVE to make him pay to see additional cards. but like sean already said, be prepared to let it go if the flush hits.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 6:38 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I think I'd probably go for a check-raise here. You could bet out, but if you think someone else will bet, I think it's worth the extra bet. Alternatively you could check/call and go for the check-raise on the turn if no heart hits.
It's close between check-raising and just betting out. If you think someone else will bet, I'd say for check-raise. If you aren't sure, just bet it, and hope someone raises from LP so you can re-raise and possibly isolate.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:00 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | If you aren't sure, just bet it, and hope someone raises from LP so you can re-raise and possibly isolate. |
I can't see why you want to 3-bet here and drive out the two players with practically no drawing chances against you. The flush draw will call, the two players drawing nearly dead will fold. If it gets raised on the flop (assuming last position after two callers between), smooth call to keep the other two in. Check/call-check/fold on a heart depending on your read, lead on any non-heart T or lower, and try a turn checkraise on any non-heart J or higher.
Given the range of opponents hands age listed, the only hands you can protect against are those that you don't fear. You need to build the pot, and hope the drawing hands miss. Best way to do that is wait for the turn to drop the hammer.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:14 pm GMT by age_of_sages
Ok, I check this. Here's why:
As previously said that flush isn't going anywhere. The only hands that are going to fold, are the ones that are already drawing dead, so you want them in the pot in hopes that they'll catch a card on the turn that'll catch them up a bit.
If you bet this flop, chances are you're not going to get raised and you'll be giving the flush draw correct odds to call, and you don't want that. Now if you check and someone else bets, you can then check raise therefore giving the flush draw incorrect pot odds.
I'm also happy if it's checked through. Doesn't really matter if you gave away the free card, if the flush hits, you've saved yourself money. If it misses, you can now bet out giving the flush draw very bad odds to call you. Also it will have let the other hands get a possible card that they like and they'll be more willing to pay you off.
I think this hand is about forcing the other player to make mistakes, and checking is how I'd do that.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:24 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| age_of_sages wrote: | | If you bet this flop, chances are you're not going to get raised and you'll be giving the flush draw correct odds to call, and you don't want that. Now if you check and someone else bets, you can then check raise therefore giving the flush draw incorrect pot odds. |
The problem with your logic here is any decent player holding the flush draw is going to be the one betting and raising against 3 opponents. Your only hope is that you'll bet and get raised by the overs, allowing you to protect your hand that way. If action is on the flush draw in an unbet pot, he bets. If it's already been bet, he raises. Your checkraise isn't going to restrict his odds at all because he's gonna have money in the pot before it gets back to you.
On the off chance that it does check around, if the turn card hits the draw in some other way, e.g. giving him top pair, your bet will fail to drive him out again since he has other reasons to hang around now.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:30 pm GMT by age_of_sages
He's gonna hang around on the turn anyhow, it doesn't matter what card comes up. What you're trying to do, is make it incorrect for him to do so.
Mabe he'll bet out the flop, but maybe he won't people play flush draws differently. And the only way you're going to have the overcards raise a bet is if he's a maniac. Now if you're pretty sure you're going to get raised here, sure bet out. I'm betting noone will raise that hand if you bet out, thereby givin the flush draw good odds.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:46 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| age_of_sages wrote: | | He's gonna hang around on the turn anyhow, it doesn't matter what card comes up. What you're trying to do, is make it incorrect for him to do so. |
That's my point...YOU CAN'T.
| age_of_sages wrote: | | Mabe he'll bet out the flop, but maybe he won't people play flush draws differently. |
I can't imagine any player NOT betting their draw here. If they don't, sit in as many games with them as possible.
| age_of_sages wrote: | | And the only way you're going to have the overcards raise a bet is if he's a maniac. |
WHY? He's not going to put you automatically on a straight. He might even put YOU on a flush draw or a single pair, and plan on making a play at the pot later if a non heart overcard hits. It makes a ton of sense for him to raise your bet if he decides to continue. If he's holding QJ for example, he doesn't want the guy with Q5 or J5 hanging around now does he?
| age_of_sages wrote: | | Now if you're pretty sure you're going to get raised here, sure bet out. I'm betting noone will raise that hand if you bet out, thereby givin the flush draw good odds. |
Even if it is raised, it's unlikely you've reduced the flush draws odds, and if he has the nut draw he's nearly compelled to 3-bet on pot equity alone, not to mention free card potential on the turn.
Perhaps I'm giving these players too much credit, but I don't think anything I'm throwing out here is rocket science. Your entire argument seems based on the idea that these players KNOW you have a straight. You could be betting with as little as T8 here.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:09 pm GMT by age_of_sages
Ok lets look at the numbers.
So you're in BB.
Let's say overs are in MP, flush draw is LP, and 3rd pair is in SB.
On the flop there are 4 bets in the pot.
You bet out, overs call. Now 6 bets in the pot. Only need 4:1 odds to call a flush draw here, so it's correct for the flush draw to either call or raise in this situation, as he knows he'll prolly get followed by 2 more bets.
Ok, now you check, say MP bets. There are 5 bets in the pot, so LP has the odds to call, but not raise. SB folds and you raise. The others still call, so the flush draw is also getting correct odds here.
Now say you check and the MP checks. Therefore it's 4 bets in the pot when it gets to LP. It is correct for LP to bet here, he has the pot odds and fold equity. So LP bets, SB folds and you raise. It's not likely that MP is going to cold call 2 bets with that so he folds. So it gets back to LP and of course he has to call. But what you've done is made him put 2 bets into a 6 bet pot, thereby NOT giving him the 4:1 odds that he needs to make the correct call.
Now for the sake of argument, let's say everyone checks the flop. The turn is and Ace, hitting MP's overs. So now you bet out. MP raises. LP now has to cold call 4 bets into a 10 bet pot giving him horrible pot odds to call here.
Now, say the turn misses MP. You bet out, MP folds. LP now has to call 2 bets into a 6 bet pot, once again, laying him incorrect pot odds.
What I'm saying is yes it's possible he could still get correct odds to call a bet on the flop if you check, there's a good chance that he isn't getting those odds. If you bet out that flop, he's definitely getting correct odds to call or even raise.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:28 pm GMT by Fat Tony
| age_of_sages wrote: | | If you bet this flop, chances are you're not going to get raised and you'll be giving the flush draw correct odds to call, and you don't want that. |
explain to me why you don't want want to be called by a draw when your hand is already made? if i have draws call my raises every time i have a made hand after the flop, i WANT them to pour more money into the pot to cover the times when their draw does indeed hit. in fact, i want to make it as expensive for them to call with a draw as i can, especially in limit since you are by the very nature of the betting structure, limited in how much you can make them pay for their draw.
| Quote: | | Maybe he'll bet out the flop, but maybe he won't people play flush draws differently |
if it's checked around to him as you seem to hope occurs, why wouldn't he bet his flush draw? i think you can pretty much count on that happening. if he's too dumb to bet his flush draw there, all your worrying about giving him correct odds to call was for nothing because such things probably wouldn't even have occured to him.
one thing stands out to me as i read your explanations. they are very well thought out and well written (thou i don't agree with all of your conclusions). you seem to be afraid of the flush draw to the point where you are thinking defensively. remember, you are the favorite!
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:32 pm GMT by age_of_sages
I agree he's probably going to bet his flush draw on that flop. And I want that. I then gives me the chance for a check raise to get the most money in the pot AND giving him incorrect odds to chase his draw at the same time.
I'm not saying I want it checked around, I'm just saying my heart isn't going to break if that does happen.
Posted Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:34 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Fat Tony wrote: | | age_of_sages wrote: | | If you bet this flop, chances are you're not going to get raised and you'll be giving the flush draw correct odds to call, and you don't want that. |
explain to me why you don't want want to be called by a draw when your hand is already made? if i have draws call my raises every time i have a made hand after the flop, i WANT them to pour more money into the pot to cover the times when their draw does indeed hit. in fact, i want to make it as expensive for them to call with a draw as i can, especially in limit since you are by the very nature of the betting structure, limited in how much you can make them pay for their draw. |
If he's not making a mistake by calling, you make more money when he folds.
The problem here is that if you maneuver to get the flush draw to make a mistake, you're going to have to eliminate the other players. Eliminating them is bad for the flush draw, but it's AWFUL for you.
Since the flush draw is likely not going anywhere, and is also likely not going to be making much of a mistake no matter what you do, you probably want to bet, and get a lot of money in the pot, without scaring off the people that are bound to make serious mistakes by a)staying around, and b)pouring money into the pot drawing thin or dead when they improve.
Re: checking through. There's one thing that may be missed here. Sure, making the flush draw incorrectly call means you make more money, but even if you bet, you would rather he fold, and he's correctly calling, you still make more money than if you give him a free card. That's another issue.
Your goal isn't to make the most money from the flush draw, your goal is to make the most money. Getting calls from opponents who are nearly drawing dead makes you a lot more money than making the flush draw make a small mistake (if he ever can actually make one)
| Quote: | | Now for the sake of argument, let's say everyone checks the flop. The turn is and Ace, hitting MP's overs. So now you bet out. MP raises. LP now has to cold call 4 bets into a 10 bet pot giving him horrible pot odds to call here. |
This isn't too horrible for him. If he assumes you're going to call, he's getting 3 to 1. And he knows he's going to make money on the river if he hits. Depending on your inclination to raise, yadda yadda, he may be making a mistake, but I assure you it's not that large of one.
/quote
Posted Mon Jul 18, 2005 3:16 pm GMT by Loonbat
You bet, period ... if the flop were a rainbow, you check.
Posted Mon Jul 18, 2005 4:16 pm GMT by age_of_sages
Well, it appears my playing devil's advocate hasn't convinced anyone checking is the best optoin in this case. 
This was an actual hand, though not one of which I was in the pot.
The way it played out:
SB: Q5o (this is what he said when I asked)
BB: 8 6 
MP: A J
LP: K 2
Flop: 9 7 5
SB: checks, BB: bets, MP: calls, LP: calls, SB: folds
Turn: A 
BB: checks, MP: bets, LP: calls, BB: raises, MP: calls, LP: calls
River: 7
BB: checks, MP: bets, LP: raises, BB: calls, MP: calls
I don't think the BB could have done anything more in this situation other fold the river. He probably got the most money in the pot that he could , and the river just beat him. But it did get me to wondering if there was a way to skew the odds in your favour, so I thought I'd make a case for checking this flop.
You all have set me straight, especially Sean, who I had quite the lively arguement in IRC with. (sorry Sean, I just really love to argue  )
The above is a situation that doesn't happen very often, now I'd like to start a new thread on a similar situation that does happen quite often and we'll see how much arguing we can have over that 8)
Posted Mon Jul 18, 2005 4:35 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| age_of_sages wrote: | | (sorry Sean, I just really love to argue ) |
Nothing wrong with a lively argument. :D
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