AA heads up. Play em fast or slow? |
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Posted Mon Jul 18, 2005 3:01 pm GMT by krakajak
$200 NL. Started off 10 handed, but a few players have busted out and now we're down to 7. It was really aggressive when the table was full, but it has slowed down abit. My table image is very tight. I have been at the table for about 160 hands, and have seen maybe ten flops (combination of bad cards, and every time I had a decent, but not great, hand, I was either in EP or facing a big raise).
The hands I've played so far:
1. A single opponent called my $12 PF raise, but folded to my bet on a ragged flop.
2. I raised $12 PF from EP w/ AK, and got 1 caller. Flop was A, rag, rag, 2 clubs. I checked, he bet $25, I pushed, he called with another AK and we split.
3. I call an $8 raise on the button with AK. The flop is A,rag rag, with 1 spade. My opponent goes all-in for $50. I call. He shows AsJs, and catches runner-runner spades to beat me.
The hand in question:
I have AA UTG. Since it has tightened up a bit, I decide to just raise $6, hoping for a call, or that maybe someone will come over the top of my weak raise. The villain from hand #3 above calls from BB. He has about $90 in his stack after calling.
Flop is J, rag, rag, rainbow. Most likely, my opponent missed this flop. I decide to play it slow at first, and get him to commit some chips before I make my move. I bet $6 into the $13 pot, hoping he'll think I have AQ or AK and am taking a weak stab. He re-raises $6 more. Is my plan working, or did he hit the flop after all? I decide I have 2 options. The first is to play back at him right now, in which case he will probably fold. My other option is to just call his bet, hoping he will think I missed the flop, and am peeling one off. In which case I plan to move in after he bets the turn, unless another jack hits.
Option 1 is the safe play. I win a small pot, with minimal risk. Option two allows me to win a bigger pot, but requires that I give my opponet a free card. Which move will be more profitable in the long run?
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Posted Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:01 pm GMT by TheSalche
your opponent has a 5% chance on turn/river to hit that jack (10%) total, but you're also afraid of the 7% or so chance that he hits his kicker
dunno how my numbers look, but its about 20% for him to hit the jack or his kicker by the river ... so you're a 4 to 1 advantage ... here are the problems though
a. if he hits the jack, do you have what it takes to fold? if you do, then you arent losing any more money here
b. if he hits his kicker, how are you going to know, and how much money is it going to cost you to find out?
if my math is right theres $27 in the pot if you flat call his raise
so now lets say 80% of the time you will make x dollars, and 20% of the time you lose y dollars ... i think its safe to assume when he hits his kicker, you're going broke so thats 10% of the time ... if he hits the jack lets say you lose 1/2 your stack
id venture a guess that you need to consistently get maybe another $20 or so from him to break even
i like a reraise here because if a jack hits, you either a. lose the pot or b. go broke, and if a jack doesnt hit and he misses his kicker, and you push all in, i dont think he will call
id reraise it maybe another $15 - $25, and if you get called push the turn
Posted Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:21 pm GMT by gol4pro
Or he's got a set, and you're in deep shit (5-7% chance). From the other post, it sounds like this guy likes calling raises with Ax, and overplays top pair.
Since I'm more the finesse type of value better, I prefer line 1. If he hits his god damn kicker on the turn, I pay him off, or hit one of my several outs.
Actually, there are 3 lines here.
a) Just call his reraise, and check raise his ass all in on a blank turn.
b) Smallish raise here to about 30$, and entice him in on the turn.
c) Shove your stack in now, and hope he calls with KJ.
I prefer line A, but C is a close 2nd.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:29 am GMT by howzit
| gol4pro wrote: |
a) Just call his reraise, and check raise his ass all in on a blank turn.
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winner, winner chicken dinner.
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