Set VS Straight VS.... err..over-Set? |
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Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:47 am GMT by supafrey
Allright. It's been a while since I've seen any "serious" poker questions on here, so I figured I'd post one and see what happens. Shocking - I know!
Here's a situation that seems to come up alot in the levels I play at (100nl), and I've seen it many times at higher stakes. Keep in mind this is for semi serious money, so we're assuming that the average player is not incompetent.
Let's say you're playing on two tables and on one you pick up 7  7  , and on the other you pick up J J . On the table with the sevens, someone doubles the big blind to $2, and you call hoping for a set to bet with. On the second table, several people limp in before you, so you decide to also call due to probable over cards and possible pairs that make your jacks alot scarier.
1st flop: 7  8  10
2nd flop: 9 10 J
Two sets! Your lucky day! Or is it?
Lets say that on table one there's three people in, including you. The first quickly checks, the second bets half pot. You immediately realize that you don't want to mess around with this pot, especially since you have that second table to worry about! You raise the 4 bucks to 8. The initial checker, however, raises to 12! Spotting something fishy, the first raiser folds. For information (and to hurry the hand up to play #2!) you reraise to 16 total. With this, the fairly tight but aggressive player (who has been caught bluffing on occasion, but is mostly just a solid player) who you're heads up with goes all in for another $60. What do you do?
On the second table, you happily notice your top set, but frown due to the obvious draws on the table. Someone opens with a minimum bet, another calls, two people fold, and it's onto you on the button. Now, again, you're not going to mess around, and you bet out a pot size bet. The person in first position calls, and the person in the big blind thinks about it for the full allotted time and decides to go all in for another $70 bucks into the $21 dollar pot. What do you do?
I'll explain my specific reasoning for these later on... but am curious as to you people's thoughts. 
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Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:55 am GMT by ScanX
1st hand : I raise more, 3x his bet at least and I do not reraise the check-raiser, I try to improve to a full house. if I improve I'm going nowhere, guy will have to show me bigger full house
2nd hand : huge chances u are behind...really depends if u want to gamble. I think u do have to improve to win.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:59 am GMT by supafrey
I fully realize that the min-raise to the raise on flop 1 is a very weak play, and the lack of a call for the turn card to come is also a bit reckless. But you're busy playing several tables, and this slip up occurs. You find yourself in a bad situation, but you don't want to make it worse.
What would you do?!!?
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:01 am GMT by Skribbles
Hand 1: I put in the raise on the flop. When he goes back over the top to make it $12, I slow down and just call. I want to see all the cards in this hand. If he has a straight, fine but there are still outs. Any set has 7 outs to make a full or Quads. If you don't hit a full on the turn you then have 10 outs for the river.
Hand 2: I like the pot size raise. When he goes all-in, I think its a gamble to call. You are quite likely behind although you have definite outs. Its almost even money on the call so its probably -EV if he does have the straight. With this, I guess it would have to do with your read on the guy. He could very well be pushing with 2 pair, lower set or a slowplayed overpair (unlikely).
I'd play these hands exactly the same if someone is putting up some good resistance. If I'm sure they have a straight then I want to keep the betting small until the board pairs. Most players will pay you off with their straight even if the board pairs. So I wait until the river to see if I get that full. Then you can put in a big re-raise and most likely get called on it.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:09 am GMT by ScanX
| supafrey wrote: | I fully realize that the min-raise to the raise on flop 1 is a very weak play, and the lack of a call for the turn card to come is also a bit reckless. But you're busy playing several tables, and this slip up occurs. You find yourself in a bad situation, but you don't want to make it worse.
What would you do?!!? |
at that point, see hand #2 : fold or gamble.
I dont fear set vs set, just the straight.
You gamble vs a straight but if u know (I dunno how) he has a set, then the answer is dead easy : it's a clear fold as it leaves u with 1 out.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:34 am GMT by howzit
your min-raise in hand 1 is so bad. . .it gains you zero information while building a pot. but luckily, your opponent is just as bad. He's letting a hand that's probably worse than him folding when you have 1 pure out and mmmmaaaybe 7 on the turn. I think you can fold the bottom set here. The action just screams strength. check-minraise, all-in. in the lower levels, i used to see this a lot where a weak player would weak-lead in a pretty scary board and then come over the top all-in. Usually w/the goods.
In hand #2, Not enough info? Is he a rock only willing to put it in w/the nut straight? Probably not cuz he probably thinks his middle set or top two is good. the good news is you have the J so pair + FD + SD is out the door. He could also be pushing QQ so I call reluctantly and suck out like a champ.
FYI: top set vs. King high straight is 60:40 dog on the flop. you're getting 91:70 so you'll have to be just about 90% sure he's got a straight to make this fold.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:38 am GMT by howzit
| ScanX wrote: | | I do not reraise the check-raiser, I try to improve to a full house. if I improve I'm going nowhere, guy will have to show me bigger full house |
yes. learn how to stop min-raising w/out a good reason.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:44 am GMT by supafrey
lol this wasn't a real scenario, nor necessarily how i'd play it. Just accept the fact that you're THROWN into this scenario, and you need to stop the bleeding.
Geez. did you guys ever read Chess problems, like in newspapers? If it says "Figure out how to mate in 3!" you can't say : "BUT I NEVER WOULD HAVE PUT MY BISHOP THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!!!"
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:12 am GMT by red_pen
hand number 2, I would call. your pot odds are not enough to call if he's betting a straight and a straight is prolly what he has as being the big blind allows him lots of extra credible holdings like er Q8.
but i still think it is a call, because the margin is made up for by:
1. The chances he's bluffing, semi-bluffing (heart flush), or playing a lower set.
2. The player yet to act might, and i mean might, call the all-in anyway. if they both have straights you're looking good pot-odds wise, and if he makes the two of you for straights he may call with a lower set. either way, it can only help.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:14 am GMT by suitedaces84
I'm calling hand two. Here's why: I'm a 2:1 dog to fill up and I'm getting at least 1.3:1 on my money. If you call it will likely promt calls from open ended straights and four flushes who will now be getting better than 2:1 on their money. Throw one more caller into the mix and this is +EV even if you know you're up against a straight. When you factor in the possibilty that you're up against a semi-bluff or a weaker made hand it's an easy call, IMO.
To summarize:
-You're up agaisnt a straight, you're a 2:1 dog and getting 1.3:1 on your money. This call will only cost you $17 on average.
-It's a weaker made hand, you're a huge favorite and will net $80+.
-You're up agaisnt the straight, but a four flush also calls the all-in. You're a 2:1 dog, who's getting 2.3:1 on their money. On average you will gain $7 here, not great but it's better than folding.
-You're up agaisnt a semi-bluff. Vs a four flush you're 3:1 favorite, vs the open ended it's 2.7:1 favorite or so. These will net you more than $45 each.
I can only think of one situation in which you stand to lose money by calling. And you're not even losing that much money by calling. This money will easily be made up when it's one of the other three.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:35 am GMT by howzit
| suitedaces84 wrote: |
To summarize:
-You're up agaisnt a straight, you're a 2:1 dog and getting 1.3:1 on your money. |
FWIW, ran it through twodimes, it's 1.5:1
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:47 am GMT by suitedaces84
| howzit wrote: | | suitedaces84 wrote: |
To summarize:
-You're up agaisnt a straight, you're a 2:1 dog and getting 1.3:1 on your money. |
FWIW, ran it through twodimes, it's 1.5:1 |
What? The pot is ~$90 after the all-in and it's $70 to call. 90:70 = 1.29:1.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:59 am GMT by supafrey
As if on cue, this came up about two minutes after i posted this.
http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?page=view&hand=90431
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:24 pm GMT by Skribbles
Looks like you lost a few bucks checking the flop.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:45 pm GMT by supafrey
If by few, you mean alot, then yes... Yes i did.  Bastard checking his set. A nice half pot bet woulda prolly led to me taking all his money. Meh. Learn for next time.
But the point of this question in my mind was simple. I've seen a scenario like this, with raise after raise on one another.. and the only thing I end up thinking is:
"Gosh. One of them better have the set, or the straight already"
Those are pretty much the only two hands that any decent poker player would say "Is worth playing the way it is being played".
If we assume that the opponent DOES in fact have the flush/straight already made, but we have the set, then the math usually tells us to fold. (60/40). Meaning that if we ever develop the skills to read such strength with any certainty, it is most definitely a gamble, but a gamble we should "technically" not be willing to take. 3:2 odds at even money (I realize the majority of time it isn't even money, but play along) mean we SHOULD fold if we are not ahead.
But I never would. It's a flaw in my game, but I asked this question because the vast majority of time i would NEVER fold my set, even if it is bottom set. I may be "certain" they have me beat, but I never actually trust my own instincts to that level - perhaps foolishly, perhaps not.
^_^
just something to think about.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:57 pm GMT by ScanX
| supafrey wrote: |
Geez. did you guys ever read Chess problems, like in newspapers? If it says "Figure out how to mate in 3!" you can't say : "BUT I NEVER WOULD HAVE PUT MY BISHOP THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!!!"
:? |
Usually when u post a hand scenario people will comment on what they see as mistakes in the actions that have already been taken, which is totally understandable.
Posted Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:01 pm GMT by supafrey
I fully understand, and hope i don't come across as a prick.
But for alot of the scenarios i hope to post, like the one me and scan just fought for nearly an hour over (concerning AKo flop bluffs) it's best just to assume all facts as absolutes.
8)
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