Flop a Straight or Flop a Flush |
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Posted Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:48 pm GMT by General Sal
I saw this one on the WPT event Caribbean Season 2 ... Gus Hansen beat out Hoyt Corkins... wow! Either way...
I'm confused as to why the 5  6 would be more likely to flop the straight as opposed to the flush. Why is this?
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Posted Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:21 am GMT by TheSalche
hmmm
allright lets do the math ... flopping the flush
11/50 * 10/49 * 8/48 = .75%
k now the straight is WAY more freaking complicated ... i think the reasoning that its great chance is that there are a lot of first cards that can come ... and the order doesn't matter, so for your first card it can be a 2,3,4,7,8,9 ... say its a 2 then the next card has to be a 3 or 4, if the first card is a 3 then next card can be a 2,4,7 ...
you can see how this may get long and complicated
Posted Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:42 am GMT by starfishblue
K I did probability and stats, lemme have a go.
4 ways to flop the straight:
2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7 8
5 6 7 8 9
Take the first example, 2 3 4 5 6
pr(first card is either 2, 3 or 4) = 12/50 (12 outs)
then have 8 outs, then 4 outs...
hence pr(2 3 4 5 6) = 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48 = 0.00327
cause four straight possibilities:
1.3% of making a straight on the flop.
But correct me if i'm wrong.
Posted Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:10 am GMT by suitedaces84
| TheSalche wrote: | | 11/50 * 10/49 * 8/48 = .75% |
FWIW, 8/48 should be 9/48.
Posted Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:41 pm GMT by TheSalche
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | TheSalche wrote: | | 11/50 * 10/49 * 8/48 = .75% |
FWIW, 8/48 should be 9/48. |
you think you're better than me cause you can count backwards suitedaces ... some of us haven't had the same education privledges as you have allright?
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