Help me beat my dad at a argument |
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Posted Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:21 pm GMT by no root toe
My dad says theres no way you can find the odds of one guys hand beating another in a showdown pre-flop. I try to explain to him that theres only so many different combonations of 5 community cards. and one guys hand is going to win X number of times out of the total number of combonations. and the othere guys hand is going to win Y amount of times over the total amount of combonations. To rebuttle my dad says that there is so many combonations that its infinate. I told him theres alot but not infinate, thats why they have computers figure out the odds for the tv poker tournys. I know im right cause i did this kind of odds and percentages in like 3rd grade. its really simple but he just cant understand it. So maybe if he reads this thread of your replies that he might start believing.
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Posted Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:40 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| no root toe wrote: | | My dad says theres no way you can find the odds of one guys hand beating another in a showdown pre-flop. |
You could. But, man, I'd sure hate to do it. | no root toe wrote: | | I try to explain to him that theres only so many different combonations of 5 community cards. and one guys hand is going to win X number of times out of the total number of combonations. and the othere guys hand is going to win Y amount of times over the total amount of combonations. |
Close, but there are some boards that will result in a tie. The rest is dead on. Given your cards and your oppoent's cards there are 48c5 or 48!/(43!*5!) or 1,712,304 possible boards.
| no root toe wrote: | | To rebuttle my dad says that there is so many combonations that its infinate. |
simpson's character = "comic book store guy"
Worst reuttle ever.
/simpson's character
Here's why: 1,712,304 < infinity
| no root toe wrote: | | I know im right cause i did this kind of odds and percentages in like 3rd grade. its really simple but he just cant understand it. So maybe if he reads this thread of your replies that he might start believing. |
If you're secretly the one who believes it's not possible to calculate the odds preflop and are too embarressed to admit it, it's okay. 
There are programs that actaully do this online. I don't have a link to one, someone else may.
Posted Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:42 pm GMT by TheSalche
gotchya covered suited
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem/
this program uses something called the Monte Carlo method I believe ... which basically goes through all the possibilities using some super math algorithm or something ... who knows?
Posted Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:49 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| TheSalche wrote: | | this program uses something called the Monte Carlo method I believe ... which basically goes through all the possibilities using some super math algorithm or something ... who knows? |
Let's just call it computer magic and be happy it works.
Now I kinda regret spending so much time dealing cards over and over again just to come up with a lousy approximation!
Posted Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:07 am GMT by no root toe
thanks suited, ands believe me, i was the one saying you can calculate them and my dad is the one who doesnt believe me. I;m currently in geometry and he just knows how to find the area of a rectangle.
Posted Mon Aug 15, 2005 7:15 pm GMT by tame_deuces
But can you actually calculate it, or do you have to try all the different solutions and then give the odds?
Kinda like the 8 queen problem, if anyone knows that (googling will help if not). That one can't be solved with a mathematical equation, only by trial and error, or the smart version of trial and error, recursion.
I'm just curious, since I'm probably a geek at heart.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 5:38 am GMT by Muck
| tame_deuces wrote: | | But can you actually calculate it, or do you have to try all the different solutions and then give the odds? |
I wrote one of these in Uni. It takes 3 seconds to calculate the odds for 4 players on the flop.
Since there are 1640 possible finishing boards that’s 547 boards a second, so preflop, with 1712304 finishing boards, it would take approximately 52 minutes.
Now I wrote it in java and didn’t optimised what so ever but I’d still be surprised if the site linked to uses a brute force algorithm like mine, considering it takes less than a second to come back with results.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 7:59 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Muck wrote: | | Now I wrote it in java and didn’t optimised what so ever but I’d still be surprised if the site linked to uses a brute force algorithm like mine, considering it takes less than a second to come back with results. |
It's a Monte Carlo simulation, which are the same calculations, but against a smaller representative sample.
The hard part of the simulation is creating the sample, not the calculations afterwards.
| no root toe wrote: | | I know im right cause i did this kind of odds and percentages in like 3rd grade. |
They need to go back to proper punctuation and spelling of the word "infinite" and leave the statistics for high school.
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