Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:22 pm GMT by Skribbles
Very early in tourny, no read, all players within 100-200 chips of the starting stack of 2500, Pokerstars $500,000.
Blinds 15/30
I'm SB with 4  4  .
2 limpers, I complete, BB checks.
Flop: 4  8 T
I check, BB min bets, CO calls, Button raises to 120.
I re-raised to 300 and took the pot down there.
Should I have just called the raise then check-raised the turn? I feel that I had an oppurtunity to win a good pot but check/raising a re-raised pot scared everyone off. I was worried about the flush and assumed that if I just called the 120 that the other 2 players would also call.
Had I called and another club hit the turn I wouldn't have been able to call a large bet with 3 other people in the hand. Had the turn come and A or K non-club, someone would have most likely made top pair and I would have gotten paid off very well.
I know that it is always better to take down a small pot than lose a big one but I think I really screwed this one.
Thoughts?
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Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:24 pm GMT by Loonbat
I like your play on a flop which could become a nasty board. Only slowplay the set when the flush or str8 seems highly unlikely ... well done.
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:47 pm GMT by Soup_dog
I think you made the right play. Take it now instead of getting sucked out on.
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:20 pm GMT by TheSalche
true that this is a nice pot to take down early, but lets consider some math ...
if you take down the pot right here, you will net 270 chips
now, lets assume that nobody can draw to a better hand than yours besides a flush (safe assumption)
25% of the time you will lose the pot on the turn to another flush card, in which case you lose 150 chips (assuming BB and CO don't reraise the flop)
75% of the time you will net 270 + 90 + 90 + whatever else you get the button to bet ... lets assume he bets 150
25%*-150 + 75% * (600) = -37.5 + 450 = 412.5 which is greater than the 270 you would win off the flop
of course that 600 may be less if BB, CO fold and/or the button doesn't bet as much
and dont forget, if the 10 of clubs comes, you're getting all of somebody's chips
might be a better idea to flat call and check out the turn, and try to build a big stack early on ... but you're the one whos got all the MTT wins under his belt skribbles
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:31 pm GMT by Dave B
25% of the time you will lose the pot on the turn to another flush card, in which case you lose 150 chips (assuming BB and CO don't reraise the flop)......
 WRONG 16%
now, lets assume that nobody can draw to a better hand than yours besides a flush (safe assumption)
 WRONG J9 97 56 67 for straight or any pair higher than 4s can hit a bigger set
Sorry Salche, good thoughts, I agree with the risk/reward analysis, but swing and a miss on the execution.
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:15 pm GMT by Skribbles
Had the stack sizes been different, with me having a sizeable lead over the other players, I would have definitly slowplayed and tried to get a bigger pot. But with the stack sizes being equal I would have been crushed/out if I lost to a flush/straight.
Thinking about it more, I should have flat called and hoped for a Tc or any none club. Even if a flush/straight card hit I would have had outs to take the hand back.
A missed oppurtunity I believe which I think cost me the tourny. With that win, I was back at about dead even. Lost a hand after that, 2 pair vs str8, then I was short stacked and had to push with my TT on a 9 high flop (beat by JJ). Had I gotten paid better on my set, I would not have been short stacked after losing my next hand and probably wouldn't have pushed with TT.
Note: By "costing me the tourny" I wasn't trying to insinuate (sp?) that I was going to win, just that it crippled my chances by how things played out.
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 2:15 pm GMT by 1988 TR
I like the raise - I kind of frown on slow playing. Let a guy on a draw make a mistake or let someone overplay A10. No need to get cute here.
NH
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:03 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Salche, you also have to consider a player with a made hand. You could be up against something like an overpair or top two or whatever. The chances of being outdrawn there are even lower, but there are a lot of turn cards that will kill action from weaker made hands. Your oppoent is showing a lot of strength. I'd try to get money in the pot before they get spooked by a scary turn or river.
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:09 pm GMT by TheSalche
blah ...
had a feeling i was being too creative for myself
though isn't the chance for the 3rd flush card on turn and river 25% each dave? combined is 35%
good point about other made hands suited ... ive noticed that scary flush card does kill action too
lol, this is one of the many reasons why i am pretty bad at MTTs
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:53 pm GMT by Skribbles
| TheSalche wrote: |
though isn't the chance for the 3rd flush card on turn and river 25% each dave? combined is 35%
|
Yup. In tournys I try to stay away from the %'s and play the my chip count more. In this case I couldn't absorb a big lose if someone hit the flush since my chip stack was basically equal to the other players in the hand (all within a couple hundred chips of 2500). Had the other players been less than 1000 chips, then I would have just called hoping for them to improve slightly (paying me off more) and risk getting drawn out as the reward would out-weigh the risk IMO.
In a cash game (which I'm awful at) I would check/raise this every time with all the draws out there to take down the pot.
Posted Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:06 pm GMT by Dave B
No, if you are 4 to the flush the odds of a 5th suited comming on the turn is 18% and river is 18% for a combined 36%.
I used 16% because a 10c gives you the boat-so he is only drawing w/ 8 outs if he solely has a flush draw.
You really need to know the math here guys. Over 200-400 hands in a night, 5-10% makes a BIG difference.
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:34 am GMT by Skribbles
Sorry, was slightly off. As I posted above though, I don't use %'s very much. I'll look at pot odds and go from there. If I'm getting about 3:1 or so and I know my implied odds are goods then I'll play it. This is probably why I'm not good at cash games.
For tourny play, I don't think odds matter at all. All it takes is for you to be on the wrong end of the odds once and your done.
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:40 am GMT by Dave B
No offense, but how do you calculate pot odds or implied odds if you dont know what your odds are of making your hand?
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:55 am GMT by Skribbles
Very roughly.
When I replied to Salche's post I guess I should have corrected him. I know that it is aprox. 35% when you have a 4 flush that you will catch in one of the last 2 cards and aprox. 20% on the river, if you still have all 9 outs.
I don't know the exact odds of every situation but I can figure out roughly what my odds are in my head for my outs.
Again though, for tourny play I don't think odds are very usefull. If you are getting perfect odds to draw to a nut flush but its going to cost you all your chips, will you take it?
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:00 am GMT by Dave B
If I am on a draw, I want the odds in my favor. Even in cash games, I rarely commit chips if I dont feel like I am getting positive value out of them.
Playing even odds is just gambling, I prefer to play poker 
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:16 am GMT by Skribbles
Alright then.... you're getting 6.5:1 odds to catch your nut flush on the river with all 9 flush cards live but it will cost you your whole stack? Take it?
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:17 am GMT by suitedaces84
A lot of the confusion about the odds is because you have a set. If you had a single pair you would be roughly a 2:1 favorite (assuming they see both the turn and river). However, since you have a set a flush draw would be a 3:1 dog because they're only drawing to 8 outs on the turn and subject to redraws. If they miss on the turn they only have 7 outs on the river.
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:25 am GMT by Dave B
everything is situational, but 6.5 to 1 w/ 19% odds of hitting, I would fold if I am left w/ enough to be healthy going forward.
81% chance if going home, I dont call.
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:55 pm GMT by TheSalche
| Dave B wrote: | everything is situational, but 6.5 to 1 w/ 19% odds of hitting, I would fold if I am left w/ enough to be healthy going forward.
81% chance if going home, I dont call. |
this is a good point ... sometimes you have to throw out the math and recognize if you lose the hand you're out and then the math really doesnt matter ...
ive been reading posts @ 2+2 forums and those guys are all math ... they were thinking about calling all in vs. another big stack in an SnG with Jack 10 suited just because they would be getting 2 to 1 on the call ... not the right choice at all in my mind
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:57 pm GMT by Skribbles
| TheSalche wrote: |
this is a good point ... sometimes you have to throw out the math and recognize if you lose the hand you're out and then the math really doesnt matter ...
|
The difference between a good player and a great player IMO. Knowing when to take the risks and knowing when to play by the numbers.
Posted Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:27 pm GMT by arras
Does anybody know of a site or something where you can practice figuring your pot odds vs. your outs? Something with an answering key preferably.
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