Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 4:52 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
It's the $1/$2 NL live game, and I'm in middle position with QQ.
UTG raises to $7. EP calls $7. Folded to me, I raise to $20. Button calls $20. Blinds fold. At this point, the pot is $57. UTG re-raises $47 more to $67 total. EP folds. Pot is now $124, offering me 124-to-47 (about 2.64-to-1) on my money. The guy had just sat down, so I had no idea what kind of player he was, but his big re-raise meant I had to put him on Aces or Kings. However, with the huge pot odds, I ended up calling. Is that really worth debating, or was this a no-brain call?
Turns out he had KK, but I got lucky and caught my Queen on the turn. I figured I couldn't lay down QQ with over 2.5-to-1 on my money, on the possibility that he had AK, or better, JJ. Thoughts?
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Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:55 am GMT by suitedaces84
Like you said you're getting 2.6:1 and absolute worse case you're a 4.4:1 dog. And if you can get the button to hang around you could end up getting better than 3.6:1.
If he has aces or kings 75% of the time, AK 25% of the time and the button never calls it's a break even call (less rake). Unless you can be more than 80% sure he's got aces or kings it's a call, given that he just sat down I don't think that's possible.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:45 am GMT by Soup_dog
I would make a crying call. Had a similiar thing happen last night. Guy raised me huge post flop against my pocket queens when the flop was KJx. He ended up having AJ and made my night.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:45 am GMT by Aves
First off, in this type of problem, I think it's extremely important to list the stack sizes of those involved in the hand.
I believe it was Cloutier who said you shouldn't reraise preflop with pocket Qs, and I think that's good advice to follow here. You can see if the flop comes with a dreaded Ace or King and you're in position so you can make better decisions after seeing what he does.
In the actual hand you reraised. This is not a horrible move, if you are willing to fold it in the event of a re-reraise, depending on the amount. I think at this point, with an unknown, you should peg him as doing "normal" plays (i.e. he's not superaggressive and will do this with hands like AJ or pocket tens), so like you said you pretty much HAVE to put them on AA or KK. So you should be folding unless you think you have the implied odds to stack them if you hit your set on the flop. In this case, UTG rereraised $47, and at about 8-1 to hit a set, he would need to have about $350 more. (This isn't even considering the slim chance that he might flop an overset).
I think from the action preflop, you can safely assume he has AA, KK, AK, or QQ (the former 2 being much more likely). If you put him on JJ, AQ, or worse, I think it's because you are hoping he has those hands, and that you have fallen in love with your own hand.
A mathematical way to look at it is theres 6 ways UTG can have AA or KK, 16 ways to have AK, and 1 way to have QQ. If you assume there is about a 70% chance he has AA or KK, and about 30% he has AK or QQ,
(0.7/0.5) * (6*2)/29 * 0.2 = 0.116
(0.3/0.5) * 17/29 * 0.55 = 0.193
Overall, you have about 30.9% equity in the hand, which I don't think is enough to continue with the hand.
Lastly, I just want to point out that I think your analysis of getting 2.64-1 pot odds is somewhat flawwed. Your analysis would be correct if calling the reraise would put you all-in. However, you should be considering the stacks you and your opponent have left as you most likely will not be checking it down. If the button folds, there is only about $30 in dead money in the pot and if you assume that you guys get it all in eventually, and assume you each have let's say $200, then your odds are more likely to be around 1.15:1, which I think should point to a fold after the rereraise.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:59 am GMT by mangothebear
I completely disagree with T.J. Cloutier when he says you shouldn't reraise with QQ. When he wrote that, poker was a completely different game, where people played a lot tighter and would only raise preflop with AA or KK. This is why Brunson's super aggressive style worked back then. Today, the game is completely different, and people could raise preflop with nothing.
The REASON I reraise with QQ is the following:
If QQ is the best hand preflop, I want to be raising so there's more money in the pot, or conversely, to take the pot down right there.
If someone has AA or KK, I DON'T want to just call the raise and then get trapped all in when there are no overcards on the flop. It's a test, to find out if QQ IS the best hand. If they just call my bet and no A or K comes, then I gotta feel pretty good about my hand. HOWEVER, if they come over the top of my RERAISE, I will lay it down to a solid player, because I will be reraising enough that they won't make that move without AA or KK. If they're a maniac, I might move in on them.
So basically, reraising QQ allows me to avoid going all in on a later betting round when they have KK or AA, but also allows me to maximize the pot when I DO have the best of it.
EDIT: Just wanted to note that this is NOT a comment about the above hand where QQ was the initial raiser. It was about reraising someone who had raised initially.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:10 am GMT by screwthepooch
| Soup_dog wrote: | | I would make a crying call. Had a similiar thing happen last night. Guy raised me huge post flop against my pocket queens when the flop was KJx. He ended up having AJ and made my night. |
Soup...I'd love to know how much of a post-flop raise he made that you would call. Maybe I'm a pushover, but it's pretty hard for me to stay in a hand with a pocket pair when there's an over-card like that on the board AND I get raised....again, maybe I'm just a coward, but I don't like to marry my queens....just rent 'em for the night 
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:11 am GMT by suitedaces84
| Aves wrote: | | Overall, you have about 15% equity in the hand, which I don't think is enough to continue with the hand. |
Really?!
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:32 am GMT by Aves
I think there is a mistake in the math, it should be about 30.9%, I edited the original reply. Thanks for pointing it out.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:35 am GMT by Soup_dog
| screwthepooch wrote: | | Soup_dog wrote: | | I would make a crying call. Had a similiar thing happen last night. Guy raised me huge post flop against my pocket queens when the flop was KJx. He ended up having AJ and made my night. |
Soup...I'd love to know how much of a post-flop raise he made that you would call. Maybe I'm a pushover, but it's pretty hard for me to stay in a hand with a pocket pair when there's an over-card like that on the board AND I get raised....again, maybe I'm just a coward, but I don't like to marry my queens....just rent 'em for the night |
Lets see. If I can remember correctly, the pot was built by my limping under the gun hoping for a raise behind me. It was and got a couple of calls. The initial raise wasn't very big and I wanted to eliminate a bunch of the stragglers so I made a substantial raise and got what I wanted... a heads-up match. If I remember correctly, the pot was about $75 and he pushed all in for my last $20. So thats like what... 100/20? Something like that.
Anyways, after thinking about it for a bit, if I was in his shoes I would have checked/called or checked raised. When he led out by putting me all-in I decided that he didn't really want a call. So I did.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:37 am GMT by Loonbat
| Aves wrote: | First off, in this type of problem, I think it's extremely important to list the stack sizes of those involved in the hand.
I believe it was Cloutier who said you shouldn't reraise preflop with pocket Qs, and I think that's good advice to follow here. You can see if the flop comes with a dreaded Ace or King and you're in position so you can make better decisions after seeing what he does.
In the actual hand you reraised. This is not a horrible move, if you are willing to fold it in the event of a re-reraise, depending on the amount. I think at this point, with an unknown, you should peg him as doing "normal" plays (i.e. he's not superaggressive and will do this with hands like AJ or pocket tens), so like you said you pretty much HAVE to put them on AA or KK. So you should be folding unless you think you have the implied odds to stack them if you hit your set on the flop. In this case, UTG rereraised $47, and at about 8-1 to hit a set, he would need to have about $350 more. (This isn't even considering the slim chance that he might flop an overset).
I think from the action preflop, you can safely assume he has AA, KK, AK, or QQ (the former 2 being much more likely). If you put him on JJ, AQ, or worse, I think it's because you are hoping he has those hands, and that you have fallen in love with your own hand.
A mathematical way to look at it is theres 6 ways UTG can have AA or KK, 16 ways to have AK, and 1 way to have QQ. If you assume there is about a 70% chance he has AA or KK, and about 30% he has AK or QQ,
0.7 * (6*2)/29 * 0.2 = 0.058
0.3 * 16/29 * 0.55 = 0.091
Overall, you have about 15% equity in the hand, which I don't think is enough to continue with the hand.
Lastly, I just want to point out that I think your analysis of getting 2.64-1 pot odds is somewhat flawwed. Your analysis would be correct if calling the reraise would put you all-in. However, you should be considering the stacks you and your opponent have left as you most likely will not be checking it down. If the button folds, there is only about $30 in dead money in the pot and if you assume that you guys get it all in eventually, and assume you each have let's say $200, then your odds are more likely to be around 1.15:1, which I think should point to a fold after the rereraise. |
You're making some big assumptions, the first concerning the caliber of players in a 1/2 NL (usually $200 max) game. Live, this is the lowest level NL game generally spread. As a result, the players are typically no better than 3/6 limit players. Just because there is a large reraise doesn't necessarily narrow the hands you're against to an AA, KK, or AK. You'd be surprised what an AJo (or even a mid pp) would do in this position in one of these games.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:42 am GMT by suitedaces84
| Aves wrote: | | If I did my math right. It's entirely possible that it could be wrong so I hope people check it. |
Well, it's wrong. :D
I don't have pokerstove on this computer, but if he's got AA/KK 75% of the time and AK 25% of the time he'll have 28% equity, which is good enough for a call. When you factor in the chance that the button calls or UTG is holding JJ/TT/AQ it becomes a very easy call. I'll agree he's likely beat here, but without a great read there's no way he's beat often enough to fold.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:49 am GMT by howzit
this is live, you should be using your detective skills better and sniff out how strong he is. Also, stack size please.
oh yeah, have a plan for christsakes. What will you do on an all unders flop? What will you do if you flop a set? What will you do w/an ace on the board? Think about these things BEFORE you call.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:59 am GMT by Aves
Mango, you said,
"If someone has AA or KK, I DON'T want to just call the raise and then get trapped all in when there are no overcards on the flop. It's a test, to find out if QQ IS the best hand. If they just call my bet and no A or K comes, then I gotta feel pretty good about my hand. HOWEVER, if they come over the top of my RERAISE, I will lay it down to a solid player, because I will be reraising enough that they won't make that move without AA or KK. If they're a maniac, I might move in on them."
Reraising is a very viable play and I sometimes do it too. It all depends on the situation. After more thought, I think OP's line was fine since there were others still in the hand and you don't want people with KJ or AT to stay in (although I wouldve reraised a little higher). But after the re-reraise, I still think it's a fold unless they each have about $350 left in their stacks.
Also, Loonbat, you said,
"You're making some big assumptions, the first concerning the caliber of players in a 1/2 NL (usually $200 max) game. "
I agree that players in the 1/2 NL are generally not that good, but I still think in the face of a re-re-raise, I think you can be about 70% sure he has Aces or Kings. Everyone is welcome to their own opinion and choices though, and that's the beauty of poker.
And suitedaces, you said,
"Well, it's wrong.
I don't have pokerstove on this computer, but if he's got AA/KK 75% of the time and AK 25% of the time he'll have 28% equity, which is good enough for a call. When you factor in the chance that the button calls or he's holding JJ/TT/AQ it becomes a very easy call. I'll agree he's likely beat here, but without a great read there's no way he's beat often enough to fold."
Again thanks for pointing out the mistake. I d/led pokerstove but didn't see the option of assigning probabilities of players having certain hands. But, my edited calculation is pretty close to what you state. I think if you include the factors of the button coming along, and the chance of UTG holding a lesser quality hand, it can be a close decision, but I wouldn't say very easy call. That's the beauty of poker though. Different people will choose different things.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 12:05 pm GMT by Loonbat
| howzit wrote: | | this is live, you should be using your detective skills better and sniff out how strong he is. |
I'd ask him and sweat him ... "Aces ... kings?" If he smiles, reraise him all-in and hope to suckout with your two-outer.
| howzit wrote: |
oh yeah, have a plan for christsakes. What will you do on an all unders flop? What will you do if you flop a set? What will you do w/an ace on the board? Think about these things BEFORE you call. |
Good idea - always think a move ahead. What do players recommend for these 3 scenarios:
A) All unders
B) Flopping a set
C) Ace on the flop
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 12:07 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Aves wrote: | | I think you can be about 70% sure he has Aces or Kings. |
That would make it a call.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:33 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Sorry guys, I forgot to mention that his re-raise put him all-in, and I had about $35 left after the call. So my odds were the total for the hand, not just the odds before the flop. That would have been important to mention, but it was like 2am when I posted and I'd just got off a real monster session at UB, so I was a little tired. The fact that it was an ALL-IN call probably changes the dynamics a bit.
I had probed him for tells and he didn't move, so I could only take his reraise all-in to indicate Aces or Kings. However, in my card room, I see players pushing in cash games with as little as AK, JJ, or even 88!!! But at a little over 2.5-to-1, I didn't want to take the chance he was pulling a fast one, and I still had $35 left if my read was correct. My read WAS correct, but I got lucky enough to hit the two-outer. But hey, I'm entitled to get lucky every once in awhile.
Even if I hadn't re-raised with the Queens, that guy and I probably would have got our money in on the flop, which was full of unders.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:57 pm GMT by howzit
you should've noticed his stack before raising. As is, you're calling here.
Posted Tue Aug 16, 2005 4:06 pm GMT by howzit
| Quote: |
Good idea - always think a move ahead. What do players recommend for these 3 scenarios:
A) All unders
|
go broke.
probably do a installment plan
| Quote: |
C) Ace on the flop
|
use a read and try to play pokah. Most likely dump it if UTG is reasonable.
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