Posted Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:57 pm GMT by Phil14312
$5 rebuy tourney on pokerroom. Started with 562, down to 61. Pay-outs start at 60 with $35 down to #40. We are hand-for-hand play until the bubble breaks.
I have just recently folded in a big pot to keep from going out about 5-8 hands ago. Blinds are at 2,000/4,000 and I have 14,000 in front of me. I am also ranked about 54 going into this hand, so I can fold my way in, its about 5 hands until I'm the BB.
I have QQ. A short-stack (who has me covered by about 500 chips) goes alll-in, the really, really short stack calls (about 7,000). What do you do? I'm pretty sure I have the best hand, but if I call and lose I am out 61 probably, I don't know what position I would be in if more than 1 player was eliminated on the same hand.
My thinking: I payed 10 bucks for this tourney (buy-in + add-on) and 60 pays me a profit of $25. If I make it to the final table, things get interesting. If I triple up, it puts me at average stack, then all I need is to get a hand or two. If I call and lose, I get zilch for about 4 hours of work.
I called. Results after a few people give me some opinions.
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Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:14 am GMT by zinn0
Personally, I would have folded here being so close to the bubble. I really hate to be all in with two other players in the pot with me, unless I am the one who made the all-in move. Whose to say one of the other guys didn't have AA, or KK? Even AK is basically a coin flip situation. Too many ways to get beat when this happens.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:18 am GMT by Skribbles
Bubble time is all personal preference.
Sure you could make a $25 profit.... but you could also make a $1000 profit. Your choice.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:24 am GMT by wEbMaStEr
I just follow skribbles around and say "what he said."
If it were me tho ......
take your chances, it's $25. If you bubble out at least you have 4 hours entertainment for $10, how often can you say that?
If you triple up you're in really good shape.
Bold moves young man, bold moves!
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:26 am GMT by 1988 TR
| wEbMaStEr wrote: | I just follow skribbles around and say "what he said."
If it were me tho ......
take your chances, it's $25. If you bubble out at least you have 4 hours entertainment for $10, how often can you say that?
If you triple up you're in really good shape.
Bold moves young man, bold moves! |
Good points.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:43 am GMT by red_pen
call. if you and mr 7000 get busted out the same hand you make the money (if the "standard" rules apply). you are only really scared of mr 7000 winning and your being beaten by original all-in man. obviously this can happen, but for it to be perilous certain (unlikely) card combinations need be in play. Off the top of my head, and ignoring flush/straight draws:
Mr all-in = overpair, Mr 7000 = underpair which hits;
Mr all-in = overcard which hits, Mr 7000 = underpair which hits;
Mr all-in = underpair which hits, Mr 7000 = better pair which hits;
Mr all-in = overcard which hits, Mr 7000 = overcard which hits harder / better kicker; (unlikely because of shared cards or both A and K appearing on board). there are of course others - like two overpairs...
And you can't hit your set yourself
most of the time you are against an underpair and overcard(s) and you'd be damn unlucky here to be mr bubble because they both have to hit and be a certain way round. i.e. If mr all-in is playing an underpair you'd be safe(ish) regardless. d'y follow?
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:21 am GMT by Idaho
You gotta call and hope they both have AJ!
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:22 am GMT by Loonbat
| red_pen wrote: | | call. if you and mr 7000 get busted out the same hand you make the money (if the "standard" rules apply). |
Standard rules dictate that if two players are taken out in a hand, the one with the greater starting chip stack places higher (better).
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:35 am GMT by Odin
Are they tight players, loose, agressive?
I play in a lot of tourney games and I gotta say I would probably move all in there as well. If you're afraid to triple up because you might be out 25 bucks (which isn't that much money, let's face it) then you'll never understand what makes a great poker player great.
Fortune favors the bold, this is a situation where I'd move all in and see what cards you're given. Being beaten preflop is a small chance, so play those statistics.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:40 am GMT by screwthepooch
I would go all-in and if you're out of the money, no biggie...I play to make the final table and $25 is too small for me to worry about if the payoff will be much bigger for manning up here. Although....i don't like the idea of being the 3rd person in this hand....on second thought, maybe I fold. I have to think that for the others to risk going out 61st, one of them has to have me beat...hopefully I didn't click call before I thought about it...LOL.
Tough choice.
On a side note, I was in a $26 Satellite tourney last night and this guy was faced with something somewhat similar. Tourney started with 49 and top 5 get a $200 buy-in for a $200k guaranteed tourney on Sept 10th. 6th place gets $94. It's down to 6 of us, with 2 small stacks of about 3500. Blinds were about 150-300 and the largest stack who had about 18,000 chips and this other middle stack guy who had about 11,000 chips get into a hand where the flop comes Q,4,9. (I had J,10 but threw away after the 11k guy bets 3k). The large stack comes over the top and goes all-in. 11k guy thinks about it and thinks about it and calls with Q,9. As you might guess, large stack has pocket 4's and takes the guy out. Terrible terrible call being just one spot away from the buy-in. I don't know if the fact that the consolation was $94 may have made it not a big deal to call, but I think it was a terrible call.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:01 am GMT by Odin
Why would calling with top TWO pair with two cards left be a terrible call? You've got a very strong hand with outs.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:20 am GMT by Skribbles
| Odin wrote: | | Why would calling with top TWO pair with two cards left be a terrible call? You've got a very strong hand with outs. |
4 outs isn't something I want to risk a tourny on.
I would lay it in this situation. This is much different than being on the bubble in a cash tourny. The prizes do not increase as you move up in a satelitte therefore it is a battle to survive not to amass chips.
What the hell the guy is doing in this hand anyway with Q9???
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:26 am GMT by Odin
Yea, but theoretically you're only be beaten if he's holding 99, QQ, or 44 in his hand...low odds. Plus, the 3k bet technically should've shoved the pocket 4's guy out of the hand...that's kind of a ballsy play. He probably put the guy on a draw or AQ, which is reasonable.
"What the hell the guy is doing in this hand anyway with Q9???"
he was making a play at the pot with a 3k raise that ended up in him flopping top two pair and the big stack overbetting the pot with that all in.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:37 am GMT by Skribbles
| Odin wrote: | Yea, but theoretically you're only be beaten if he's holding 99, QQ, or 44 in his hand...low odds. Plus, the 3k bet technically should've shoved the pocket 4's guy out of the hand...that's kind of a ballsy play. He probably put the guy on a draw or AQ, which is reasonable.
"What the hell the guy is doing in this hand anyway with Q9???"
he was making a play at the pot with a 3k raise that ended up in him flopping top two pair and the big stack overbetting the pot with that all in. |
I missed read the post on thought 44 was the 3K raiser.
True he is only beat by 3 hands but with two short stacks ready to drop why bother? The big stack could have JT or a Q with a better kicker that he could outdraw with. He doesn't need the chips so why take the risk? In a cash tourny, top two is good for a push, but not on the bubble of a satellite.
Why was he bothering trying to steal the blinds of 450 when he is sitting on 11K in chips. Those extra 450 are not going to help him out. Even worse is that he is trying to steal them from the chip leader. I could understand raising the short stacks blinds.... but not trying to steal from the chip leader for a petty 450 chips.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:54 am GMT by Odin
Without knowing how the chipleader was playing, I'd say perhaps he was playing very conservative waiting for the other two to drop out. What's the rule? The big stacks should focus on the lil guys and avoid conflict with each other. I can only assume he was trying to make a move with Q9 or perhaps he was on tilt?
Dunno, but as the big stack I'd be hesitant to call with 44. The 3k bet smells of pocket pair or big overs and an eventual all in...someone doesn't just bet 30% of their stack pre-flop and fold.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:56 am GMT by Skribbles
| Odin wrote: | | What's the rule? The big stacks should focus on the lil guys and avoid conflict with each other. |
Exactly. So why would the chip leader push all-in? He obviously had a big hand and wasn't worried about getting called.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:03 am GMT by Odin
Oh I get the post flop play from the CL's perspective, but to put someone on 44, QQ, 99 is pretty tough in a three handed.
The all-in play ended up working this time but I still think it's premature.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:05 pm GMT by screwthepooch
| Odin wrote: | Oh I get the post flop play from the CL's perspective, but to put someone on 44, QQ, 99 is pretty tough in a three handed.
The all-in play ended up working this time but I still think it's premature. |
I honestly wouldn't have taken the chance that either of them took because they are one spot away from the goal. But at least the chip leader had trips and you have to be scared of going head to head with the chip leader when there's really no point to it. The guy with Q,9 (2 pair) still would have had 8k left if he had folded, more than enough to make the top 5 if he was careful. Seriously, only get involved with the short stacks in that situation. It's just not worth it.
My apologies to the original poster...I realize we have hijacked your original post. Sorry about that.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:29 pm GMT by Phil14312
Yes the ol' hijack, no its fine, its a very similar situation and I think it deserved mention.
I called and won, original pusher had KQ and shorty had 77. My 50% chance of winning held up and I was an average stack going into the final 60. I ended up in 32 when my top-pair crappy kicker ran into top-pair better kicker. Oh well.
Posted Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:36 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| Odin wrote: | Yea, but theoretically you're only be beaten if he's holding 99, QQ, or 44 in his hand...low odds. Plus, the 3k bet technically should've shoved the pocket 4's guy out of the hand...that's kind of a ballsy play. He probably put the guy on a draw or AQ, which is reasonable.
"What the hell the guy is doing in this hand anyway with Q9???"
he was making a play at the pot with a 3k raise that ended up in him flopping top two pair and the big stack overbetting the pot with that all in. |
Did you notice that the prize structure was the same for the top 5? Why risk anything with 6 people left & a good chip stack. The chip leader could have showed me his cards before I acted and had AQ and I still wouldn't call. Why would I????
I can fold & place. Why play?
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