WPT hand that is driving me crazy |
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Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:26 am GMT by jenny72
I am playing in the WPT even in LA and am taking a break till 4 this afternoon.
Anyway, the rounds were 90 minutes and we all got 10k in chips, buy in is 5k.
Who's on my left and is the big blind when I am the small blind?
Phil Ivey. Television cameras are focused on out table, photagraphers are buzzing around and Ivey takes it all in stride while I can't seem to get used to all the attention.
Here is a hand that happened about 3 hours into the tourney, what would you have done here????????
I have 12k in chips when this hand starts, the guy in the big blind has about 16k in chips.
In middle postion I limp in with 8-10 clubs, the guy in front of me limped in also. Everyone else folds, the big blind ( who is handicapped and plays with his feet! ) checks his hand... we see the flop.
The flop is A, K, 5 .. all clubs. I have flopped a 10 high flush.
The blind bets about $300, the guy next to him folds.. I raise $1000, the blind who led out calls me.
Turn card is a small red card. The guy in the blind checks to me.
I bet 3k thinking he will lay it down. He calls again.
River card is another small red card the board does not pair.
I am expecting a check from the guy I am against... what does he do???
He goes all in!!
Sooooo... now what to do???? If he has a higher flush and I call him I am out of the tourney. If I call and beat him I am chip leader for the table and am in great shape.
What would you guys have done????????
I will tell you what I did a little later. 8)
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Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:38 am GMT by UrAteUp
There are several hands I might put this guy on. The top being AA, KK or AK. I would not be afraid to call with the flush. I am now very curious to see what you did and to see what he had.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:51 am GMT by 1988 TR
Wow, what a tough situation....
Does he have a higher flush and is just being careful, making sure the board doesn't pair before he commits his chips? Or does he have a baby flush & when no more clubs come, he feels pretty confident that he is winning... Or did he flop trips & again is feeling confident after no more clubs came... After all the AK of clubs is out there, who would player lower cards than that?? 
I think I would make a crying call.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:33 am GMT by howzit
BB hand range, Q3, Q2, Q4, J6, J4, 79, 93. You get the idea.
I don't play tourneys but w/out a read in a cash game, this is an easy call.
No reads? A description of the player would help too. There's just about $16k in the pot w/you having ~$8k giving you 2:1. I don't see a set playing this hand this way, it's just retarded not to do something on the turn or flop on this hand.
That said, he's in the blind so he can have any suited clubs and on Baye's theorem alone, there are more flush draws worse than yours than flush draws bettter than yours that he would play in the same way.
I probably think he has a flush as well and getting 2:1 I call.
A very good NL player says this about playing suited connectors. Raise to get the other flush draws out but limp w/a suited ace to keep the same flush draws in.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:35 am GMT by howzit
btw, i should comment that I do not play tournaments nor spend time thinking about tournament strategy so my choice is only based on opponent's hand ranges.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:37 am GMT by screwthepooch
I would call also. I hope he was just totally bluffing, but probably he had AK or trips as 1988 said. I just am not going to lay down that flush at this point. Your raise on the flop might have led him to believe that you DID NOT have the flush so he might feel he is good here. IMHO.
Can't wait to hear the results.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:40 am GMT by howzit
| screwthepooch wrote: | Your raise on the flop might have led him to believe that you DID NOT have the flush so he might feel he is good here. IMHO.
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better put into words but that's my thinking. I think BB thinks he is ahead here and therefore must have the flush.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 2:00 pm GMT by Geno
I would call here with a slight wince and just hope he's playing a flopped set or perhaps even 2 pair. I would say that you called but we'll see 
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 2:53 pm GMT by jenny72
Interesting responses, all make total sense.
Here is what I did on this hand.
The guy in the big blind was interviewed before the tourney by a film crew because he was a parapalegic ( spelling? ) player who had no use of his hands. He litterally had to use a block of wood to slide his cards up with his FEET!
He was very tight and was getting autographs from players at our table and other tables.
The first mistake on my part was playing the hand in the first place. But since the table had a lot of limping, including Phil Ivey, I went with it to see a flop.
When my opponent called my 3k bet on the turn I put him on either a set, 2 pair or perhaps he had the queen of clubs and was trying to suck out on the river.
When he went all in I sat there for about 2 minutes running down what he could possible have, how he played the hand and if he was willing to risk his tourney on a bluff or weak hand.
He was wearing these huge dark glasses so I couldn't get a read on his eyes. I asked him if he had a flush, I told him I had a flush, a big flush... he just sat there.
I have a tournamnet rule that has served me well in real life and on line. This rule has made me a lot of money over the years and it was why I was ( am ) playing in the WPT with the big boys.
The rule is..... NEVER bust out of a tounnament in the early stages by making a call that could indeed bust you. Yes, you might have the best hand, yes you could make a huge move and get some chips, but if your wrong, your done.
So after an eternity I mucked the hand.
The guy in the big blind took his cards, slid them up on his triangle block of wood and then flipped them over with his foot showing.......
9Clubs
7Clubs
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
The good news is that I was alive and still very much in the tourney.
Trust me, I wanted to go back in time SO bad and make the call, but I also knew that he could have had Q-2 of clubs in the blind... If that was the case my 5k entry would have been toast and I would have been off to Disneyland.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:18 pm GMT by Loonbat
| jenny72 wrote: | | If that was the case my 5k entry would have been toast and I would have been off to Disneyland. |
There are worse ways to spend your time ... 
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:36 pm GMT by crack
Yes, I am suprised nobody picked up on it in the first place. Your mistake is playing T8s in MP IMO.
I didn't see what the blinds were, so I can't really judge just how bad a move that T8s limp was. I would prefer to play with more players in and with a better position (You didn't know what the players to the left of you would have done)
And while also mentioning the hand range of the BB. While it is correct to mention Qxs and Jxs, nobody mentioned XXs. Ok with the All In you could possibly eliminate the small suited hands like 32s, 43s, 42s etc.
What I am really interested in is how screwthepooch can put this guy on AK or trips without knowing anything about the player? You cannot put a guy on a hand at that point I don't think because we have no reads on how he plays. FOr all yu know he could have been a maniac and have anything. He could be tight and only peddle the nuts and be holding Qxs. You just don't know until we have a profile on the player. Not everyone plays a standard TAG game.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:45 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Crack - I think you can put him on some sort of decent hand just by the fact that he called some very large bets & then went all in. To call two big bets and then go all in against a scary board, usually is not the sign of a bluff - I don't need a player profile to know this.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 4:28 pm GMT by crack
Although I agree it indicates strength, you are jumping in head first if you think his way of playing automatically means AK or trips. The greatest thing about poker is people can play various styles.
I am not going to put him on a hand without knowing a bit of background info I'm afraid. I didn't say it was a sign of a bluff either.
I am saying it's not the greatest idea to be so pre-judgemental without knowing a single thing about this player before this hand.
IMO anyway.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 4:32 pm GMT by screwthepooch
| crack wrote: |
What I am really interested in is how screwthepooch can put this guy on AK or trips without knowing anything about the player? You cannot put a guy on a hand at that point I don't think because we have no reads on how he plays. FOr all yu know he could have been a maniac and have anything. He could be tight and only peddle the nuts and be holding Qxs. You just don't know until we have a profile on the player. Not everyone plays a standard TAG game. |
Crack,
Not sure what you're looking for out of me. Of course I don't have a read on the guy outside of the specific moves in this hand. I wasn't in the hand or at the tournament. In fact none of us were. I'm merely basing my opinion on the only facts I know. I'm giving the guy credit for a hand, but as I said, I'm not willing to believe he had my flush beat (or Jen's). Apparently I made the right decision. Not that folding was wrong. If I had said "the guy doesn't have shit", call him in a heartbeat, I can understand your criticism. Based on the only information I have I think I made a fair assessment.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:11 pm GMT by Geno
Shoulda called 
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:29 pm GMT by crack
My problem is the facts that you had were not enough to put him on a hand.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:35 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| crack wrote: | | My problem is the facts that you had were not enough to put him on a hand. |
Sure they were...
You can put someone on a range of hands given cards on the table and betting patterns... You may not be right, but you can do it.
Even if you are there, you may have more information to put someone on a hand - It still doesn't mean you are any closer in figuring the guys hand.
It's pretty much what poker is all about.... Not sure where you are going with this.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:37 pm GMT by 1988 TR
See - I wasn't even there, but was still able to consider what his hand eventually turned out to be in my analysis :
| 1988 TR wrote: |
Or does he have a baby flush & when no more clubs come, he feels pretty confident that he is winning...
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Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:15 pm GMT by ScanX
| 1988 TR wrote: | See - I wasn't even there, but was still able to consider what his hand eventually turned out to be in my analysis :
| 1988 TR wrote: |
Or does he have a baby flush & when no more clubs come, he feels pretty confident that he is winning...
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I dont want to be picky but in your analysis u also mentionned bigger flush and set...was hard to go wrong :) (I know there aint other hands u can decently put the guy on)
in cash game or some random online (or live) tourney/S&G, this is an insta call...the question is, do u want to risk the WPT on that hand.
would be hard.
jenny : was that paraplegic guy the one we could see on some WPT final table in the previous seasons (with Ivey managing the chips for him) ?
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:21 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| ScanX wrote: | | 1988 TR wrote: | See - I wasn't even there, but was still able to consider what his hand eventually turned out to be in my analysis :
| 1988 TR wrote: |
Or does he have a baby flush & when no more clubs come, he feels pretty confident that he is winning...
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I dont want to be picky but in your analysis u also mentionned bigger flush and set...was hard to go wrong (I know there aint other hands u can decently put the guy on)
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Do you ever read post & comprehend them? Or do you just post the first thing that comes to your mind (usually trying to bash someone)?
In my analysis, I put him on a range of hands (the baby flush just being one of them), and at the end decided I would call.
Crack said you couldn't put someone on a hand since we weren't there. I disagreed & said you absolutely can, in fact, I did.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:31 pm GMT by ScanX
| 1988 TR wrote: | | ScanX wrote: | | 1988 TR wrote: | See - I wasn't even there, but was still able to consider what his hand eventually turned out to be in my analysis :
| 1988 TR wrote: |
Or does he have a baby flush & when no more clubs come, he feels pretty confident that he is winning...
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I dont want to be picky but in your analysis u also mentionned bigger flush and set...was hard to go wrong :) (I know there aint other hands u can decently put the guy on)
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Do you ever read post & comprehend them? Or do you just post the first thing that comes to your mind (usually trying to bash someone)?
In my analysis, I put him on a range of hands (the baby flush just being one of them), and at the end decided I would call.
Crack said you couldn't put someone on a hand since we weren't there. I disagreed & said you absolutely can, in fact, I did. |
Same question to you + do you have to be aggressive everytime someone is just teasing you ?
I read your analysis and said that it was indeed the hands u could put him on just by the betting pattern, ok ?? Or maybe u dont read what is between parenthesis ?
Thought u had chilled but I guess I was wrong.
Oh and about bashing other people, I think u got your share of that.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:44 pm GMT by crack
I didn't say you can't put the person on a hand because we weren't there. Please reread my post. What I said was you can't put the player on the hand without more information. Information Jenny did not give until his reply.
"You may not be right, but you can do it"
My exact point. Maybe I should have reworded it better. Of course you can put someone on a hand, you may not be right. I feel with such a small amount of information in the initial post you may not be right a lot of the time.
You can put someone on a hand just by looking at them when they are dealt their cards. You will not be right most of the time.
Couple this together with knowing the players style of play (someting that was not knowin in the first thread) along with the way he played the hand then you have enough information to make a good judgement.
Using the information given in the first post, putting him on a set or two pair is bad judgement. As it turned out to be.
You also mentioned betting patterns in your last post. How do you know his betting pattern when the only information given for this analysis is the initial hand you are in? If you mean his play on the FTR then that is hardly comprehensive enough to stake your WPT entry on it, is it?
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:09 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Crack, I understand what you are saying.
I play mostly on the internet, so I have to rely on betting patterns to make decisions. Often time, you will never had played with a certain player before, so the only thing you can go on is how the hand was played.
To get to my conclusion, I need to :
1) Put him on a range of hands - Likely to Most likely - Betting patterns is my best way to try & make sense of what hands would be played a certain way
2) Consider pot odds
3) Consider my stack if I call and lose, call & win, or fold
4) Check my stones
Based on the above, I would have called due just thinking I can put him on more losing hands than I can hands that will beat me. The pot odds would have been enough for me to make the call.
To others, it wouldn't have been enough to make the call - At the end of the day, it is up to the individual to make the decision if they have enough information to put their WPT entry fee on their read.
And to be honest, talking about making the call on this board is one thing, but actually doing it in real life is quite another - With the heart pumping, the cameras rolling, and the pressure building.... These factors make it an even tougher call.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:47 pm GMT by crack
1988, I see what you are saying, but I am not even thinking about the call. So I am not looking at the pot odds.
My point is playing against an unknown and putting him on Trips or two pair (AK) when you have no information on the player except the way he had played this hand. I don't think the initial info is enough to make that judgement and I was right, this time.
Betting patterns are a good way to put a player on a hand. But without seeing how he has played before, how do you identify his betting patterns? All you can do is judge how you would play the range of hands and how you think he would play a range of hands as a standard player.
In a $5k buyin however I have a feeling that most unknown players are going to play anything other than standard, which makes putting him on a hand with the initial info a very difficult thing to do.
This thread seems to have degenerated a bit from the initial point so I apologise for that.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:59 pm GMT by screwthepooch
Crack,
If we follow your logic, then our response to the initial post would be this:
Hell if I know...figure it out for yourself.
Your premise seem to be, if you're not able to make a fully informed guess then don't even try. Not sure how that is helpful for a forum in which the point is to discuss "Hand Analysis". No one at this forum will ever have the info you want us to have.
So, for me, I'll stick to answering the posts and postulating based on the limited info provided.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:02 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| crack wrote: |
In a $5k buyin however I have a feeling that most unknown players are going to play anything other than standard, which makes putting him on a hand with the initial info a very difficult thing to do.
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Why do you think this? Do you think because the buy in was 5k, they will be playing some super special brand of poker?
I reviewed a small range of hands the player could have & one of my possible hands was correct, so I don't think its that difficult. I'm sure most people would have a baby flush as one of their guesses.
I would also dismiss AK as one of the range of hands just by going by the pre flop betting - I would have exected a raise by the BB holding that hand.
By the way, pooch thought I said he most likely had AK, but if you re-read my post, I didn't say that at all. What i said was he was feeling better about the baby flush since the AK of clubs was on the board (the most likely cards someone would have called pre flop with suited). And by trips, I would most likely mean 55 - AA or KK would have had to made a gutsy slow play pre-flop - Not impossible, but certainly unlikely.
Posted Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:49 pm GMT by crack
Pooch: Why are you completly missing the point in what I am saying? I am saying there was not enough information to put him on a hand. You don't know how he is going to play. You don't know his style. You can put him on a hand yes, but like I said earlier your judgement is going to be a bad one. And it was. You put him on AK or a set, even though you don't know how he would play. You don't even have the player generalised as tight/passive loose/aggressive etc.
What you are doing is just taking a random guess because how he played this one hand. You were wrong on this ocassion and I expect if you make judgements like this you will be making a lot of bad judgements.
IMO anyway.
If you want to make random guesses in hands then that's fine. Good luck with it. My aim is to learn about poker and chip in with my poker knowledge to help people. I tried to help you by telling you that putting people on hands in that situation is bad with such bare information.
No. I do not think because the buyin is 5k they will be playing a super special brand of poker. However if you are buying into a tournament for $5k then your general unknown player is going to be able to pull a lot more moves out than the standard players.
I am not going to try and put a player on a hand without more information. I will not be replying with guesses just on the information provided. It's obviously just the way I think about poker. I would prefer to have more information before I make judgements on players.
I have taken on board what you have said TR.
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:01 am GMT by 1988 TR
| crack wrote: | Pooch: Why are you completly missing the point in what I am saying? I am saying there was not enough information to put him on a hand. You don't know how he is going to play. You don't know his style. You can put him on a hand yes, but like I said earlier your judgement is going to be a bad one. And it was. You put him on AK or a set, even though you don't know how he would play. You don't even have the player generalised as tight/passive loose/aggressive etc.
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I hear where you both are coming from....
Pooch is of the opinion that the board is for analyzing hands with the information that is given - Fair enough. I think the key point is he had the opponent on a worse hand than the heros flush.
Crack is of the opionion that it helps to actually be there to get all the inforamtion you can - Again, fair enough.
You both have good points - Maybe time to agree to disagree?
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:28 am GMT by crack
Yeah sure. With something like this I do want to be there to give my full honest answer. However a bit more info would be a start, like what Jenny has rated this player as. (He said in his reply very tight)
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:01 am GMT by screwthepooch
Crack,
Perhaps you got too hung up on my specifics when I said it could be trips or AK. I did not really mean to imply that I actually put him on one of those two. What I meant was that I would give him credit for a quality hand, but not enough to beat my flush. Really all this is about is the question: Would I call with my flush. And, I said "yes". The reason is because I felt he would bet the same way if he had one of the other hands (AK or trips) or even a baby flush. But regardless, I would have called.
The problem you are posing about putting someone on a hand with little information is understandable. I'm not really claiming I can put a guy on a specific hand, although I know that 1988 TR can do it with uncanny regularity. As TR says, you can at least attempt to put the guy on a range of hands. And, as is often the case (especially in a Tourney), you may have absolutely no read on a player who may have just sat at your table. That doesn't change the fact that you still must attempt to make a decision based on the limited information. I'm certainly not going to just fold a good hand in order to wait for some more data. So, as is often the case, I will use what I have available and make the play i think is best...wrong or right. Sometimes I get beat and sometimes not. That's poker.
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:32 am GMT by NickHow
| screwthepooch wrote: | | That's poker. |
I'm sure there is a rule about banning people who say that 
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:33 am GMT by crack
I didn't say fold the hand because there was limited information. You are misunderstanding what I am saying. I say to make a good enough judgement on this hand and to lengthen your tournament life you need more information before you can decide what hand to put him on and what you should do.
When you say " but probably he had AK or trips as 1988 said"
How else am I supposed to take that except that you are implying he had AK or trips? You also did not mention a baby flush in your hand range.
But whatever. We all have our own ways of interpreting the game. I mean as you said, that's poker right?
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:35 am GMT by NickHow
| crack wrote: | | that's poker right? |
Ban!
(Oh man I'm bored)
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:39 am GMT by jenny72
Jennifer Harmon had a hand last night that should show my point about not CALLING your chips off in a tourney if at all possible.
She had AA preflop made a raise and was called by one player.
The flop was 10 - 9- 5 rainbow.
Her opponent went all in for about 50k in chips. If she loses the pot she is out.
What do you do? To make the money you had to come in the top 72, at this point in time there were about 100 players left.
Well, she folded and he showed trip 10's. Maybe she had a read on him, but is this an incredible laydown or what????
If you guys are not making it into the money in tournaments as aften as you would like, this type of hand is something we can all learn from.
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:45 am GMT by screwthepooch
| crack wrote: | I didn't say fold the hand because there was limited information. You are misunderstanding what I am saying. I say to make a good enough judgement on this hand and to lengthen your tournament life you need more information before you can decide what hand to put him on and what you should do.
When you say " but probably he had AK or trips as 1988 said"
How else am I supposed to take that except that you are implying he had AK or trips? You also did not mention a baby flush in your hand range.
But whatever. We all have our own ways of interpreting the game. I mean as you said, that's poker right? |
I was loosely quoting TR and perhaps should have added a comma to distinguish that I believe he might have had AK, or "trips as 1988 said". Either way, at this point, it seems that you are nitpicking about 1 line in a post that was otherwise correct. Poster asks what would we do...I said Call. End of story.
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:46 am GMT by 1988 TR
Damn...
Exactly how dead is that horse you guys are beating?
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:19 pm GMT by Loonbat
| 1988 TR wrote: | Damn...
Exactly how dead is that horse you guys are beating?
|
It's not dead yet ...
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:06 pm GMT by screwthepooch
| jenny72 wrote: | Jennifer Harmon had a hand last night that should show my point about not CALLING your chips off in a tourney if at all possible.
She had AA preflop made a raise and was called by one player.
The flop was 10 - 9- 5 rainbow.
Her opponent went all in for about 50k in chips. If she loses the pot she is out.
What do you do? To make the money you had to come in the top 72, at this point in time there were about 100 players left.
Well, she folded and he showed trip 10's. Maybe she had a read on him, but is this an incredible laydown or what????
If you guys are not making it into the money in tournaments as aften as you would like, this type of hand is something we can all learn from. |
That is a great laydown. I would never put a guy on trip 10's going all-in there. I would more likely guess he had 2 pair such as 10,9, although I'm not sure why he would be calling pre-flop raise with that. Online I would guess he had overpair and I probably would have called. However, I'm not playing $5,000 tourney's either. It seems to me that guy should have slow-played and really lost a chance to gain some chips. I mean, what the hell is he afraid of?
Being a live tourney, I would be interested to see what the reads are on some of these players versus online where obviously there are no physical tells.
Posted Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:51 pm GMT by crack
| 1988 TR wrote: | Damn...
Exactly how dead is that horse you guys are beating?
|
I agree. Screwthepooch just made a mistake by not reading what you said properly which is how the debate started.
I am just trying to give my insight an help improve peoples game and mine. I think I have done that. Nice debating with you 1988 and screwthepooch.
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