Posted Sat Sep 10, 2005 8:14 am GMT by Idaho
I'm beginning to doubt myself...
I always assumed that if you had an outside straight draw on the flop, then you were a 4-1 shot to make your straight on the turn and river.
Likewise if you have a single ace versus KK preflop then you have a 30% chance of catching an ace on the board.
Am I wrong? Can anyone show me the workings?
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Posted Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:18 pm GMT by Iron Butt
An open-end straight draw is 8 outs, 32%-ish to the river or 2 to 1 against.
I don't know a method for figuring odds of hitting the flop with an ace... I guess using the same principles of the rule of 4 & 2, we would say that there are 50 unknown cards and 3 outs preflop. So 3 outs x 2% x 3 cards... a little over 18%? Just a guess, if this is way off I'd like to know.
Posted Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:01 pm GMT by starfishblue
This is my cheapo rule-of-thumb.
It's only a rough approximation of course:
Open-end straight draw = flush draw
(8 outs and 9 outs respectively)
Anyway: After the flop, the odds of hitting your draw, on the turn OR the river is 2-1. And the odds of hitting it individually is 4-1.
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