Posted Tue Sep 13, 2005 7:27 pm GMT by Ciso_B
okay, big live tourney.
You have AJos on button , blinds $300/$600..... everyone folds to right of you , he raises to $2,000 ....( he riases in late alot with weak holdings eg- suited connectors ) you opt to raise to $8,000 which you think would force him out, when he comes over top all in for $9,000 more. You had $32,000 before you raised to $8k now you are on $24k and its about $9,000 more to call... Do you call?
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Posted Tue Sep 13, 2005 7:51 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
So if I understand correctly, the pot is now $300 + $600 + $2000 + $8000 + $17000 (he raised your $8000 total by $9000 more) = $27,900, giving you slightly better than 3-to-1 odds on your call, after which there will be no more betting. So what are the possible hands he could have that would give you favorable odds to call?
AA: Yikes, this is a really bad situation, and you're less than 12% to win.
KK, QQ, or JJ: You're a fairly sizable underdog against all of these hands, a little worse than 7-to-3 or so on average. With your pot odds, you might have to call this, unless you feel that you're a much better player than the field and could outplay them in the long run with your $24,000 stack. Here, it's also important to consider what the average stack size is in the tournament. With blinds $300/$600, your M is about 26 if you fold, which still isn't too bad. However, if your Q (ratio of your chips to average chips) is abnormally high or low, it might be worth the risk to your chip stack. If you call and lose, your M will be reduced to between 16 and 17, so you would have to hustle a little bit more.
AK or AQ: Behind AA, this is the worst situation for you, in which you're slightly worse than 3-to-1 underdog. AK is more likely than AQ in this situation.
TT or any lower pair: Not bad, you're in a race. With pot odds, you would call this one every time. With his bet, though, I doubt he'd have anything lower than 10's.
Any weaker Ace: Now you're the big favorite, but would he push with a weaker Ace?
Two live cards: like KQ the like. You're a slight favorite against KQ, and about a 2-to-1 favorite if he has two unpaired cards below J. But that doesn't seem all that likely either.
Given what we've seen, I'd say the most likely holdings for him are big pairs and AK, all of which you're an underdog against. Now it's a matter of deciding which cases are the most likely and seeing where your pot-odds stand. That's the strict by-the-numbers analysis, but AJ really isn't a very good hand, and if you narrow the possible spectrum of hands to pairs JJ or higher, along with AK and/or AQ, I think this becomes a fold. I'd take my M of 26 at this point and try for a better situation. You raised to see if he would fold. He didn't, and not only is it likely you're beat, but you're likely a huge underdog against the range of hands he's representing.
This is certainly a tough situation because your pot odds are pretty favorable, but at the end of the day, AJ just isn't a very strong holding, especially when your opponent has come over the top.
Posted Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:11 pm GMT by Ciso_B
well thought out and very correct , that AJ is very weak esp when facing an all-in, it was the last hand of the break at day 2 of wpt for me, and i for called, he flipped over AKos. And he doubled up, when he went all in , I felt i was committed - i realised i was getting 3-1 but didnt wittle through the hands he could for long since everyone was getting up and moving around, bad play. I hoped he had TT or something but really i think i should have passed there.
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