Check-raising the weak side of a paired flop. |
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Posted Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:46 pm GMT by Tadzio
Me: 2900
Villian: 5000
Anon: 7100
Blinds 25 and 50
Dealt to me: 44
PF:
Me (button): Raise 100 to 150
Anon (SB): Fold
Villian (BB): Calls
Flop: 77K
Villian: Check
Me: Bet 200
Villian: Raise 400 to 600
Me: All-in
Villian: Call
He shows KJ and a 4 doesn't come.
I admit this isn't the best hand I've ever played, but that's not what concerns me. I had been very tight the whole SnG and I'd seen him get caught a couple times trying to check-raise boards with scary flops (when he had nothing), and that's what I put him on here. What I don't get is why you'd want to check-raise the weak side of a paired board... and then call a tight player that comes over the top of you all-in. He ended up with all my chips, so it looks like he played the hand perfectly based on his table image to "trap" me... but I still don't really understand why he'd play the hand that way.
I guess he figured he'd survive the hand if he lost, but if people called bets based on whether they'd survive the hand, there'd be a lot more variance in this game.
Thoughts?
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Posted Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:53 pm GMT by supafrey
From his standpoint, he didn't really do anything wrong. You should have folded to his re-raise, most probably.
Three handed, I get KJ I'm going to atleast see a flop. With a K77 flop, I want you to bet out (especially if you think i'm a loose monkey) and go over the top of you. If you'd have folded right there, I would gladly take down what pot there was. Your over the top is sketchy, because noone's going to put you on a seven, and it's much more likely that you have a mid pocket pair and want to scare him outta a weak king.
Atleast, that's what I'd be thinking when confronted with your play. AK-KQ are also possible, but not especially a threat big enough to scare me off of this flop, personally. I'd have done exactly what he did, and folded if I was you, instead.
Your thoughts on "I was so tight, and strong, why didn't he fold?!" Don't really make all that much sense. You have to put him atleast on SOMETHING with the re-raise, and him calling an additional 1150 into a pot that's 2500+ or so is a NO BRAINER with the king. You chose a time to make a move where the amount of chips out there made it a poor decision.
My two cents. ^_^
Posted Wed Sep 14, 2005 10:59 pm GMT by Tadzio
| supafrey wrote: |
Your thoughts on "I was so tight, and strong, why didn't he fold?!" Don't really make all that much sense. You have to put him atleast on SOMETHING with the re-raise, and him calling an additional 1150 into a pot that's 2500+ or so is a NO BRAINER with the king. You chose a time to make a move where the amount of chips out there made it a poor decision.
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I made a mistake on the chip count and corrected them. Do they change your analysis (I doubt that they do).
As far as calling myself tight, that's what I was. I'd played, literally, 5 other hands that SnG. And I didn't say I was strong. I won 2 pots, laying down the other 3 hands on the turn. I figured he saw me as tight-weak and was buying a pot. I figured wrong...
Now, you said that no one would give me credit for the 7. Okay, had I called the re-raise to push on the turn or river, would you be more likely to give credit, or did my PF raise ruin any chance of representing the 7?
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:38 am GMT by gumby_ng
You're assuming that the other players even notice that you are playing tight in the first place.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:04 am GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | You're assuming that the other players even notice that you are playing tight in the first place. |
Precisely one of the points that I was going to make.
Also, your reraise almost screamed "I don't want a call here! Don't call!"
If you had a 7 you wouldn't have wanted to scare him away and would've just called to see if he'd dump more into the pot on the turn. At least, that's how I'd have seen it from his perspective. As your opponent I would've figured myself to be ahead at this point and would've probably called you as well.
JMHO, of course.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:45 am GMT by supafrey
No, no difference with any changes I see. Still the same situation.
And the stop and go type of dealie wouldn't do THAT much in this situation. The pot odds dictate a call with that kind of hand. You had to throw it away to the re-raise, no other play would have won it for you IMHO.
Any money you don't lose is the same as money you win, right? If you had folded when you should have, you'd have remained in the tourney with some chips. =/
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:12 am GMT by 1988 TR
I don't mind the play pre flop or the flop bet. Once he re-raises though, I would just lay it down.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:10 pm GMT by howzit
dump it to the raise.
what hands does he think you'll let go by check-raising? what hands do you think would check-raise you here?
if you want to continue w/the hand, how would you play a 7 or KQ/AK here? it'll be expensive to play on the further streets, if you think he'll check the turn then you can make more money by just calling here. But if you think he'll come w/at least a 2/3 pot bet or more, raising will make you more money. Folding is the wisest move though.
He'll have to fold a god-awful % of time for you to 3-bet the flop.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 1:05 pm GMT by howzit
start w/you having 2 outs (which is too high because he can pull another king or a seven) so let's discount that to about 1.5 outs. you'll have around 8% pot equity here by moving in.
Flop: ($325) K 7 7
hero's stack on the flop is 2750 TC, villain covers. 200 bet then 600 check-raise.
pot = 1125:400 which ~2.8:1 to call.
if hero folds, he loses nothing. if hero pushes and villain folds, he'll win $1125. if hero pushes and villain calls, he'll win approximately whatever is in the pot already + what he'll have left over after calling the raise 8% of the time. this is equal to 1125 + 2150 = 3275 TC after calling off 400.
Hero will lose his stack of 2,550TC 92% of the time.
break-even (x=% of time villain will fold)
1125x + (1-x)3275*0.08 - 2550*0.92
1125x + (1-x)262 - 2346
1125x + (1-x)-2084
1125x -2084 + 2084x
2084 = 3209x
x = 64.9%
villain will have to fold ~65% of the time here to make this move break-even.
The point is, figure out your equity in these situations, opponents hand-ranges and his ability to lay down those hands w/in that range you give him.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:40 pm GMT by snoogins47
Betting the flop is a must, folding to his raise tends to be a must as well.
It's basically a situation where the opponent could be bluffing, but you're investing your entire stack on the hope that he is. He's hardly ever folding a better hand, with the notable exception of maybe some smaller pair. He might not even fold those. You're behind most of the time, you're called a lot of the time, and when these happen, you have a tiny chance of winning.
I say just give it up on the flop. And I'm a maniac, so that's sayin' something.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 4:21 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| snoogins47 wrote: | Betting the flop is a must, folding to his raise tends to be a must as well.
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Yah... Going all in when you can only beat a bluff is not the best route to go.
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 5:09 pm GMT by supafrey
Crack brought up a an interesting point in IRC, actually. What's the buy in on this tourney?
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 6:02 pm GMT by Skribbles
| gumby_ng wrote: | | You're assuming that the other players even notice that you are playing tight in the first place. |
Posted Thu Sep 15, 2005 6:32 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| Skribbles wrote: | | gumby_ng wrote: | | You're assuming that the other players even notice that you are playing tight in the first place. |
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The other players are too busy watching The Cosby Show reruns....
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