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analyze this



Posted Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:13 pm GMT by zinn0
How would you guys have played this hand differently? Looking back now, I think I might have raised the flop instead of the turn, but what do I know?


PokerStars Game #2606988670: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/09/18 - 18:06:56 (ET)
Table 'Esperanto' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Eldrik ($50.45 in chips)
Seat 2: diolefin ($2.70 in chips)
Seat 3: cmaher1987 ($31.95 in chips)
Seat 4: mcjohnz ($65.85 in chips)
Seat 5: sks13 ($35.80 in chips)
Seat 6: jillaj ($97.25 in chips)
Seat 7: zinn0 ($38.90 in chips)
Seat 8: Quattlecom ($18.30 in chips)
Seat 9: aligned1 ($25.60 in chips)
diolefin: posts small blind $0.25
cmaher1987: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zinn0 Seven of HeartsNine of Hearts
mcjohnz: folds
sks13: folds
jillaj: folds
zinn0: calls $0.50
Quattlecom: calls $0.50
aligned1: folds
Eldrik: folds
diolefin: calls $0.25
cmaher1987: checks
*** FLOP *** Eight of HeartsJack of DiamondsThree of Hearts
diolefin: checks
cmaher1987: bets $1.50
zinn0: calls $1.50
Quattlecom: folds
diolefin: folds
*** TURN *** Eight of HeartsJack of DiamondsThree of Hearts Ace of Spades
cmaher1987: bets $1.50
zinn0: raises $2 to $3.50
cmaher1987: calls $2
*** RIVER *** Eight of HeartsJack of DiamondsThree of HeartsAce of Spades Ten of Spades
cmaher1987: checks
zinn0: bets $5
cmaher1987: calls $5
*** SHOW DOWN ***
zinn0: shows Seven of HeartsNine of Hearts (a straight, Seven to Jack)
cmaher1987: mucks hand
zinn0 collected $20.95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $22 | Rake $1.05
Board Eight of HeartsJack of DiamondsThree of HeartsAce of SpadesTen of Spades
Seat 1: Eldrik (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: diolefin (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: cmaher1987 (big blind) mucked Six of HeartsJack of Hearts
Seat 4: mcjohnz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: sks13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: jillaj folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: zinn0 showed Seven of HeartsNine of Hearts and won ($20.95) with a straight, Seven to Jack
Seat 8: Quattlecom folded on the Flop
Seat 9: aligned1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


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Posted Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:45 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I think in this hand you are at best 60ish% to win on the flop and 30ish to win on the turn (that is your odds if villain is holding higher cards than you that are non-heart and he has no pair).

If we give villain some credit for his bet on the flop and assume he has a jack, you are likely coinflipped.

In a worst case scenario he is betting the flushdraw with overcards and you are up the creek without a paddle, but as usual on baby-flushdraws, we happily assume that to be 'less likely'. Smile

But anyways, if you want to build the pot or try to buy it, the flop would be a better place to do it. Simply calling the turn here is ok play in my book, since you are not likely to win unimproved closing the betting can be ok. It does however give away some information on your hand, which I guess not all NL players like to do. So betting the ace can be an ok idea, but the turn raise is probably too small to get anyone out of the pot (if you want to take it down there).






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