Posted Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:21 am GMT by Muck
This is probably better suited to the “Odds and Probability” forum but JohnnyCache has been trying to encourage more tech discussions so I thought I’d post here since this could be considered a tech post too.
Anyway, I recently had a heated discussion with a first time poster regarding the odds on Betfair Poker Exchange and an e-book he was linking to.
I decided to quickly show him and anyone else who's interested that the odds offered and requested are either side of even money. So an e-book could not offer any information that would improve your chance to profit, unless it said “Don’t bother playing. The End”.
I modified some of my poker game code to brute force crunch all of the possible hands and calculate the odds of winning at showdown. Here are a few examples to illustrate what I mean:
Screenshot 1
Screenshot 2
Screenshot 3
Screenshot 4
I suppose there is still space to offer your own unfavourable odds (better than those currently available) but the edge would be so low it would take a long time or a large bankroll to be profitable.
So what do people think?
NB: This post is in no way intended to imply Betfair are doing anything underhanded or dishonest. I’ve used their site in the past and thinks it’s one of the best places on-line for offering or taking a bet.
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Posted Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:44 am GMT by JohnnyCache
What all do you code in? Java and such?
Posted Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:30 am GMT by Muck
My dissertation was written in Java and provided me with the foundation classes for all of my subsequent poker programs.
The code for this program is still a little rough around the edges, in example 3 you can see I haven’t put in any handling for eliminated hands :
But it still proves the point that these odds aren't just guesses. Chances are other users are using similar programs.
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