Posted Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:16 pm GMT by Tadzio
I've been considering introducing this play into my repertoire for a little while, and I'd like to get some thoughts on it. I'm sure it's not an original idea, but I think over the long-term, the risk involved is worth it.
The idea is that when you're pretty sure you're ahead, but you're vulnerable, you give draws odds to call on the flop, only to "sucker-punch" them on the turn. For example:
You: A  K
Pot: 80
Flop: A  A  6
You: Bet 40, giving the flush draws 3 to 1 on their money, which is odds to call.
What they don't realize is you're only giving them odds for 5 to 1 bet, because if the turn isn't a , you're gonna bet pot and/or go all-in on the turn (depending on circumstances), giving them horrible pot-odds to call and see the river.
I think this is a way of using controlled risk (the control is the knowledge that they'll only suck out on you 20% of the time-- unless they make a stupid call on the turn-- although they're thinking they have a 33% chance to do so) to maximize profits on made hands.
Additional benefits: If (in the given example) a K hits on the turn, you can give the draws odds to call twice more (the turn and the river) because you'll have the nuts. And there'll be more people around to suck money out of by the end of the hand.
Additional risks: Beyond the controlled risk of a flush coming on the turn, you make it difficult to spot a player that flopped a full-house. Normally, if you bet pot on the flop, you could predict that 90% of the time you'd be called by another A, a 6, or 66 A6. Playing the hand to pull in the draws risks these players going unseen (unless they decide to reveal themselves with a re-raise).
Are the risks worth the rewards over the long-term? Could the same principle be used occasionally with TPTK or would that be risking too much? This is what I'm trying to figure out.
Thoughts? Opinions? Personal anecdotes?
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Posted Sun Sep 25, 2005 4:44 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I generally don't expect to see both the turn and the river card for the price of calling the flop bet. I count my pot odds one card at a time. And I cut them a little slack based on the type of player I am up against.
To me it have always seemed like the natural thing to do as long as my opponent have enough chips left to make the river card expensive on the turn.
I thought that was what everyone that used pot odds did. 
Posted Mon Sep 26, 2005 5:18 am GMT by Muck
Indeed pot odds only apply to the next card. Anything beyond that is implied odds.
If you offer them a good call on the flop then a bad one on the turn you need to know they’ll call the turn enough to make the bad flop bets profitable.
I don’t know what kind of player this move will profit against. One that knows pot odds will call the flop and fold the turn. One that doesn’t know pot odds could just be offered a bad call on the flop from the start.
Posted Mon Sep 26, 2005 12:37 pm GMT by Tadzio
Any pot you take down is profit. The point of the play is to get the guys that are counting on pot/implied odds a reason to give you more money, and then take the river away from them. If you bet heavy on the flop you'll get 0 action from draws, and if you give them odds to call on the turn you allow them to complete their hand (whether they hit or miss, they'll know their hand and will be less likely to make a mistake). It's true that with this play you're only getting one bet out of your opponents instead of two-- or one modest bet instead of a potential maniac bet-- but you're also minimizing your risk to the draw while making money with your hand.
If you're planning on giving draws the pot odds to call on both the turn and the river, they can bank on having a ~33% chance to hit their flush and be rewarded on 3-1 on their moneys. If you're planning to take the odds away from them with your turn bet, then you're only risking a 20% chance that they'll hit vs a 3 to 1 on your money, assuming one drawer. If there's more than one drawer: you're risking 16% in the case of 2 drawers for 4 to 1 on your money; 12% in the case of 3 drawers for 5 to 1, etc. If they get wise to your play and start folding on the flop, you've just turned them into a weak player, and can bluff with less cash risked. If they go tilt instead and start calling your turn bets, you'll take the drawer's money 80% of the time (exempting those times when they hit on the turn-- where you would check/fold rather than bet out). And if they refuse to get wise, you'll slowly and safely take money from them.
But you're right. It's very possible that most players wouldn't fall for this sort of thing. Oh well... back to the drawing board.
Posted Mon Sep 26, 2005 6:04 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Both pot and implied odds only apply to the next card. Bet odds apply to the next two cards and are for FL or very short stacked NL (where you're not folding because you will have odds on the turn).
In situations like this you shouldn't be focused on the flush draws. You should be more focused on the weaker made hands. If you're worrying about draws you should be looking at their implied odds (how much you will pay them if they hit).
Posted Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:27 pm GMT by TheSalche
this idea has been introduced around here before, heres a few thoughts on that ...
1. keep it in ring games, in tournaments if you're making 'silly' moves like this, what if you're opponent hits his flush card on the river, now you're out a few hundred chips, which can quickly become important with escalating blinds ... i'd only do it in cash games where you can always reach back into your wallet
2. the theory behind it is very good, but not everytime are you going to be up against a flush draw, as suited said theres going to be weaker made hands out there, and you may be giving them odds to draw out on you too. if you're too focused on just the flush card, you may miss out on a weaker ace filling up their full house (in this example), maybe theres some hidden straight draws on other types of boards, etc.
just keep in mind that if you actively give your opponent the odds to draw out on you, you have to be willing to immediately fold your hand and fight another day
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