my worst bad beat - anyone know the odds ? |
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Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:43 am GMT by scrawnybob
this is my worst bad beat - cant see i did anything wrong - ive checked the percentages but does anyone know the odds of them hitting both cards they needed ?
5+0.50 SnG full table tournie, I limp in to see the flop with Queen 10
flop comes down King Ace Jack (rainbow)
making me a straight on the flop - I raise all-in (which is just over twice the size of the pot)
I get called by one player who turns over 99
Figure Im sorted as he needs runner runner to make full house / 4 of a kind to beat my straight
what does he get - Turn - King (2 pair Kings and 9's) - River - 9 (full house)
Bad beat or what - anyone know the odds ????
scrawybob@4kingpoker.com
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Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:36 am GMT by Muck
My maths is almost legendarily bad but here’s a shot:
| Code: |
Combination | Ways to make it
--------------------------------
AA | 6
KK | 6
JJ | 6
A9/9A | 12
K9/9K | 12
J9/J9 | 12
99 | 2
|--------
Total | 56
QT/TQ | 18
|--------
Total | 18
|
So out of 1980 possible turn and river combinations 56 will cause you to lose. So your odds to lose were about 1 in 35.
Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:34 am GMT by scrawnybob
hi Muck
cheers - I guess I need to go back to the maths - 1/35 doesnt seem right to me somehow (maybe thats why Im a looser) - i thought he had much more of a long shot
when I ran it through the calculator - I was a 99.6 favourite on the flop with straight - even when he caught the K on the turn I was still 90% something favourite
does that really translate as a 1/35 chance for him to win - I thought runner runner like this was sposed to be more a 1000/1 shot
I thought u needed to work out the odds of hitting an out on the 4th and then calculate hitting another out on the 5th not the combined outs - doesnt seem like youd end up with the same figures - but i was always really bad at maths
is there anywhere like the percentage calculators that do it as odds ?
cheers though - I think your maths is prob better than my guess
maybe i should call allins with 99 more often lol
scrawnybob
Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:55 am GMT by Muck
Hi Bob,
1 in 35 is still pretty long mate, I’d be happy to have those odds most of the time 
Anyway I had a go at double checking the results using this site:
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem/
Sorry for the link but it’s been mentioned before so I’m guessing it’s okay, if not the mods can remove it.
Anyway I didn’t know the suits involved but as long as flushes aren’t possible it shouldn’t matter, so I entered this:
Him 9 9
You Q T
Flop A K J
This came out with a percentage to win of:
Him: 3.3 %
You: 96.7%
3.3 in 100
1 in 30
So quite close to 1 in 35
Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:23 pm GMT by scrawnybob
hi Muck
cheers for your help - i think what ive been doing is taking the right total odds (on the flop then re - multiplying them by the odds when the next card hits and then coming up with some random big figure which is clearly wrong.
in fairness ive prob been influenced by other people online doing it wrong too
playing in pokerroom today posed the same question and got a "no no your right its like 350 / 1" which I know see is bolox
i knew they got lucky but i guess im not thinking of 35/1 shot as as long as it looks
so cheers for putting me right - i think i play a bit too much by feel and not enough by true odds - works mostly in no-limit tournies but maybe i should invest in one of this tracker things - prob why i get worse return off cash games -any suggestions as im on a mac
ty scrawnybob
Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:17 pm GMT by Muck
This could be were the confusion comes from.
The chance of the River being a King and the Turn being a Nine is:
6 in 1980
1 in 330
I calculated all of the scenarios where you’d lose, not just the one that occurred.
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