Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:48 pm GMT by weirdofreek
What do you think of this play? I have K 10 Clubs, small raise pre flop on button. Flop comes QTx with 2 clubs. I go all in and am called. Other player shows AQ and I make my flush caught some crap for my play and wanted your opinions.
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Posted Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:26 pm GMT by suitedaces84
how much did you have? how much did scumbag have? what are the blinds? a little info about you and scumbag, etc...
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:51 am GMT by TheSalche
9 flush outs + 2 tens in the deck + 3 kings in the deck = 14 outs which is slightly less than even money (like 40 - 45% i think? maybe higher)
if you want to gamble this is a pretty good spot, i've seen much worse plays
i kinda like it if you're short stacked compared to him, if you have him covered by a lot then i dont like the gamble as much
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:32 am GMT by suitedaces84
| TheSalche wrote: | | i kinda like it if you're short stacked compared to him, if you have him covered by a lot then i dont like the gamble as much |
If you're in a cash game I don't see how this matters.
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:48 am GMT by Muck
As suitedaces said there’s a lot more information that would be beneficial here. I can’t judge the preflop raise or much else without knowing the game, blinds, number of players and stack sizes.
From what you’ve said the only comment I can make is that I like the continued aggression, I think you probably had some good fold equity in this move you just ran into TPTK.
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:57 am GMT by Nut Flush
Well, you went all in with an ok hand but with lots of ways to improve. So you either pick the pot up right there or you get called and have outs to win when facing a hand like AQ. From the info provided, I don't see anything wrong with it.
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:04 am GMT by lilitu
Fourteen outs is >51% on the chart. When I'm short stacked in a tourney I'll push with middle pair and a good draw.
If this is a cash game I'm not sure I'd want to push my whole stack on that narrower numbers, not if I'm getting a higher percentage long run. I know I'm definitely not calling a significant all in at cash with top pair and no draw.
This said without knowing the stack sizes, position or the format no one can look at the play directly.
Lilitu
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:16 am GMT by Dave B
You could ask him w/ he CALLED an all in with just a pair. It should always take a bigger hand to call than to push IMO.
If you move all in, you can win by everyone folding or winning the hand. If you call an all in, you need to show down the winner.
Neither play was poor as far as I am concerned. Both moves were rather aggressive though.
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:16 pm GMT by Ciso_B
I dont think its bad play really, i mean its essentially 50-50 but at same time if theres a good chance hed call do you really want ure money in with only 50% chance of winning.
Lets say 1/2 time hed call, means 50% of time you are gonna win a pretty small pot when he folds and the other 1/2 u will be all in with 50-50 shot at winning a big pot.
If the table is weak and/or limit low prolly even higher then 50% chance of a call there with TPTK.
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:23 pm GMT by Loonbat
If you put the opponent on TP, in a cash game you should play this every time. You're making even money on your bet, and picking up whatever was put in the pot before the flop. So, 1.1 (1.2, etc) to 1 odds with a 51% chance to hit.
little voice in the background whispers "plus EV"
Posted Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:11 pm GMT by howzit
14 outs is a slight favorite on the flop. Whether he calls or folds to your all-in, the EV is positive IF YOU THINK HE HAS ONE PAIR. A lot of opponent's hands takes away your EV. AT w/the ace of club, top set, middle set, AA (if he has the ace of clubs, you lose a lot of equity) NOTE: your hand vs. top two doesn't change your EV.
When you play more hands, you'll learn to play this same exact hand differently. Some situations warrant an open-push vs. check-raise all-in vs. three-bet all-in vs. finding a fold.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 7:51 am GMT by UrAteUp
I feel alot of people put too much faith into odds sometimes. True a player who does play odds stands a better chance of winning, but I feel there are often times when instinct plays an important role in poker as well.
I like having XXs cards and then hitting two of my suit on the board. To play a hand like this all in is truely gambling. That is the name of the poker game, gambling. Betting on the outcome of an event and the probabilities of catching the best hand. Some people might call your play crazy, but I think of it as a good gamble that paid off.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 8:26 am GMT by Dave B
| UrAteUp wrote: | I feel alot of people put too much faith into odds sometimes. True a player who does play odds stands a better chance of winning, but I feel there are often times when instinct plays an important role in poker as well.
I like having XXs cards and then hitting two of my suit on the board. To play a hand like this all in is truely gambling. That is the name of the poker game, gambling. Betting on the outcome of an event and the probabilities of catching the best hand. Some people might call your play crazy, but I think of it as a good gamble that paid off. |
I couldnt disagree more. If you arent prepared to go all in w/ this kind of hand, you shouldnt be playing NL. BTW-if the other player had moved all in 1st, then you might want to let the hand go, depending on the circumstances. A made hand AND a big draw is enough to try and take down the hand right here. I might even check raise all in to try and get more value out of the hand.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 11:01 am GMT by lilitu
I have to agree, in part with UrAteUp. I think instinct in this situation is probably more important than odds.
9 Clubs, 2 Tens, 3 Kings = 14 outs is 51%. However if he's holding A  your down to 48%. If he's holding KQ, AT, TT or XX for the set your in trouble. Depending on the value of X there may even be an odd sr8 draw out there.
Maths in no limit are the foundations of good play not the whole show. Read is more important as the maths you do must always be based on an understanding of your opponents hand. In the end this play comes down to your read on his hand.
| Quote: | | I couldnt disagree more. If you arent prepared to go all in w/ this kind of hand, you shouldnt be playing NL. |
As the opponent called a small raise preflop and didn't raise on the flop I don't see the value in pushing here. Raise yes, check and take a free card yes, but all in? I don't see it for the bulk of the situations. Without knowing anything about the level or format, or more specifics I really don't see you want to commit your stack to a small pot on a draw.
Lilitu
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 11:07 am GMT by tame_deuces
As Suitedaces said, I think we need to see how deep the stacks are and how big the pot is compared to them before it is possible to say if this is a good play.
This situation is drastically different in deepstacked/shortstacked poker afterall.
And the difference between a draw and a made hand doesn't matter, only how much ahead you think you are in the hand do. That is the only thing that should affect your play.
If a draw is a 70% favourite after being called by a made hand it is no different than a made hand being a 70% favourite after being called by a draw.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:25 pm GMT by suitedaces84
The vast majority of the time it's a good play. The only times when it's not a good play are when:
1) Villian is a station and there is no way he'll fold
2) Stacks are incredibly deep compared to the pot and the only hands that will call you are ones you're way behind.
The "feel" aspect is total bs, I don't even know where to begin with this. Instead of making a guess as to what villian has based on the last episode of WPT and Mike Sexton's result oriented advice why don't you consider all the possibilities and their consequences? Yes, he could have TT or QQ or some other monster but that's the rare exception. The majority of the time you pick this pot up with no showdown. Sometimes you get called and a coinflip. Very rarely are you a 2:1 dog. Remember, this is a semi-bluff (you don't want to be called, but if you are it's not real problem). The difference between having him call and fold is pretty small in terms of EV, but ideally he'll fold.
This isn't the best play in every situation. For example if villian is a station who will never fold a better hand and will pay you off when your draw comes you'd be better off waiting for your draw. If the pot is $1 and you both have $100 behind you you know he won't call unless he's a 2:1 favorite and the $1 pot isn't much of a prize. In this situation it would be best to check-raise to build the pot and amplify his errors on a later street.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:52 pm GMT by lilitu
From the point of view of cash you're advocating pushing into a dry pot where the best case scenario is a coin flip. This might not be bad, but it's definitely not the best play.
| Quote: |
The "feel" aspect is total bs, I don't even know where to begin with this. |
I'm sorry but if you've been sitting at a live cash table with someone for two hours you should have a feel / read for their play. If you don't then you should not be pushing your whole stack into them on a semi-bluff.
As he notes only a small raise before the flop and no other action we have to assume your condition 2 is correct and this is a bad move.
The folding equity is good but the move here on the button is to raise or check, not move all in. If you raise and he folds you've won the same without committing.
Lilitu
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:01 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| lilitu wrote: | | From the point of view of cash you're advocating pushing into a dry pot where the best case scenario is a coin flip. This might not be bad, but it's definitely not the best play. |
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | This *pushing all-in* isn't the best play in every situation. For example if villian is a station who will never fold a better hand and will pay you off when your draw comes you'd be better off waiting for your draw. If the pot is $1 and you both have $100 behind you you know he won't call unless he's a 2:1 favorite and the $1 pot isn't much of a prize. In this situation it would be best to check-raise to build the pot and amplify his errors on a later street. |
And it sounds like we're arguing in semantics about what "feel" is. Yeah, it does depend on how he's played in general, how I've played, how he likely views me and how he's eating his oreo, etc...I just wouldn't define that as feel.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:02 pm GMT by Dave B
Let me explain my rational, I have a big hand and am likely a big favorite. Dont forget, he may not even be ahead at this point, what if he has bottom pair, or 2nd pair w/ a weaker kicker.
I dont expect to show down 2nd pair and win the hand unless we both check down. If I dont bet, then I am allowing him to draw for free. If I bet small, I am likely to be called or reraised, just because I showed weakness.
I dont mind taking down a decent sized pot right here if I am not called-which is why I bet big here. Like I said, I would check raise all in and NOT want a call. If he pushes all in, I dont know if I call either.
If I move in, I will likely not get called. Only a big hand would call me, and an overpair or top pair wouldnt be a bad fold. I would guess that 1 in 10 times I will get a call-esp if you havent been a maniac so far.
Sometimes the most cautious way to play NL is to move all in.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:08 pm GMT by Ciso_B
I agree with suitedaces , that check raise is good play , without the all in.
if i was short stacked in a multi or even thought there is a good chance my opponent will pass in a tourney , i will execute this play but in a nothing pot in a cash game, dont think its worth the risk.
Too much of a gamble imo.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:34 pm GMT by lilitu
Call it read or feel, I think we can all agree that raising is a good move here but all in is too bigger risk for the reward most of the time.
Lilitu45
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:53 pm GMT by Phil14312
*cough* we really need the stack sizes to debate this.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:00 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| Phil14312 wrote: | | *cough* we really need the stack sizes to debate this. |
Word.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:58 pm GMT by howzit
| Ciso_B wrote: | | that check raise is good play , without the all in. |
this is the WORST option w/medium stacks which is what most online games are.
Here's the turn 70% of the time, 2  . Use your pot equity and fold equity now.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 9:11 pm GMT by Ciso_B
why is the turn 2 70% of the time? How many 2 are in your deck lol?
Lets assume its medium stacks then ok?
1- if he calls the re raise, you have option to raise on turn obviously but its all dependent on the turn card.
2-Check raising the flop gives you momentum for 4th street and the river......you can win the pot without making the better hand and its not 50-50 situation and even if you are called down .....you don't lose your whole stack as opposed to if the opponent calls your all in on the flop.
3-If you miss on turn and he fires out you can fold, you only had mid pair with a draw anyway and again like (2) you dont risk your whole stack.
My point Howzit was that check raising was a good move cos (need i say) that the opponent can pass his hand or alternatively call and you can improve .....The reason i didnt agree with all in was simply cos you are likely to get called a fair amount of the time especially if its lower limit where people really value TPTK incredibly highly.. I mean i wouldn t want a caller where its practically coin toss? Would you?
I like the agression , the check raise is powerful manuovre but i guess it depends on size of the pot on flop. If its worth risking all your chips (eg- tourney ) then by all means go ahead..But cash game where turning a nice profit is no.1 i like my money in with a better chance of winning.
| Quote: | | Here's the turn 70% of the time, 2 . Use your pot equity and fold equity now. |
in response to this, if this is the turn and the opponent bets out agressively, pass. Whats wrong with folding here, no shame in it imo at all.
I d rather save myself my whole stack and be little worse off then be the guy with balls and lose it all. Its not as if you are miles ahead on the flop anyway , gees.....Advanced theory- Pair and a flush draw and we are embarrassed to pass.
Making good calls is a sign of a good player, making a good pass is a sign of a great player  .
Hope this clarifys my earlier statement.
Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 9:39 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Here's Howzit's point: c/r sucks if you can't make villian fold a better hand or get them pot commited. All a c/r does with mid-size stacks is get you pot commited w/o giving your oppoent a chance to fold a better hand.
btw, once you've got 1/3 of your stack in the pot you're commited on the flop. The only way to weasel out is if your oppoent is nice enough to give you a cheap card then bet big.
Ex: I've got $40 preflop, scumbag has me covered. Pot is $5 on the flop he bets $5, I c/r to $12, he goes all-in, I'm calling even though I know very sure I'm behind. Why? I'm getting better than 2:1 and I'm very rarely greater than a 2:1 dog. I'd really like to avoid getting all my money in as a dog, but I'd rather get it all in when I'm behind then fold when I'm getting good odds to suckout.
Now, if we both had $150 it would be an easy fold for me if he were to go all-in. However if he calls and the turn brings me my flush or my T it gets a much easier for me to bust him. So the idea here is to make him fold or get him pot commited without getting yourself pot commited.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:35 am GMT by lilitu
| Quote: | | I have K 10 Clubs, small raise pre flop on button. |
Am I reading the initial post wrong? I read that as saying he raised from the button. How you chek-raise if you're last to act?
Lilitu45
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:21 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Dave B wrote: | Let me explain my rational, I have a big hand and am likely a big favorite. Dont forget, he may not even be ahead at this point, what if he has bottom pair, or 2nd pair w/ a weaker kicker.
I dont expect to show down 2nd pair and win the hand unless we both check down. If I dont bet, then I am allowing him to draw for free. If I bet small, I am likely to be called or reraised, just because I showed weakness.
I dont mind taking down a decent sized pot right here if I am not called-which is why I bet big here. Like I said, I would check raise all in and NOT want a call. If he pushes all in, I dont know if I call either.
If I move in, I will likely not get called. Only a big hand would call me, and an overpair or top pair wouldnt be a bad fold. I would guess that 1 in 10 times I will get a call-esp if you havent been a maniac so far.
Sometimes the most cautious way to play NL is to move all in. |
Dave after reading this post I get why you disagree with my earlier statement. It seems your playing the big hand and I am thinking of being the little hand trying for the flush draw. I agree with your strategy for keeping the player off the draw. Smart tactics on your part. The whole idea of betting is to say" right now I feel I have the strongest hand, and to prove it I bet,,,". So if your confident in those cards you might as well play them balls to the wall. I can understand that.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:35 pm GMT by Dave B
It is also what howzit said, on the flop, if you happen to be behind, you are still a slight favorite w/ money in the pot-so possitive value. If you dont bet, call, or raise small and then miss, now you have a small 27% chance, can you really call a big turn bet w/ 27%???? I dont like being in that position.
I dont like commiting chips early in a tournament on draws. So, with this very good drawing hand, I dont mind taking down the pot right now. I would rather get called with a great chance to double up early instead of calling a bet on the flop and again on the turn, miss a draw and be left short stacked. If I win, I am sitting pretty, if I lose, move on. Nothing worse than going out on the bubble.
Regarding general SNG strategy, I dont mess around early, I either fold or try and take down pots quickly.
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