To gamble or not to gamble |
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Posted Thu Oct 06, 2005 8:05 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Played a 6-man live tourney today when this hand came up. Starting chips 1000. Current blinds 100-200. 4 players left.
Bigstack: About 3000 chips. Very aggressive player who will see alot of flops, reraises with air and times his bluffs very well. His only problem is seeing the difference between a decent raise and a min-raise. 
Shortstack 1: About 400 chips left. Decent player, makes good calls.
Shortstack 2: Yours truly with an awestriking 700 chips. Best hand so far is an A3o and on a side note he is unhappy to be labeled an AA-camper. 
Bigstack is UTG and min-raises to 400.
Button folds
Shortstack 1: in the SB calls for his entire stack
Shortstack 2: in the BB. I pick up 6  5.
Read says it is unlikely that bigstack would raise with air, he knows the shortstacks are pretty desperate and he probably has something to show down.
Do I fold or gamble (as in push)?
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Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:32 am GMT by Muck
| tame_deuces wrote: | | AA-camper. |
Love that, will defiantly use it the next time I have a home game
I think you’re situation is pretty tough.
You’ve already got 200 in there, you’re on the SB the next hand and will be down another 100. I don’t like your hand much but I think time is of the essence so I don’t think I’d fold.
In some situations here I’d flat call and then pushing on the flop regardless of what comes. But I only do that if I read my opponent as one who doesn’t like to call unless he improved.
I think I’d move all-in.
A preflop push negates you’re positional disadvantage.
You might be up again two players with overcards and if you’re lucky their hands might hurt each others chance to improve.
You have the equity that the button might be on a bluff and fold, which would also add some dead money to the pot.
The SB is in a desperate situation so his call doesn’t necessarily mean he has anything.
I think it’s just time to race.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:17 am GMT by Loonbat
Against one, yes. I don't like going against 2 hands in this case.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:46 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Yeah, it was a tough spot. But I reckoned I was pretty much dead in the water if I laid down here + with some small luck I could have a 25% chance or so to actually get a usable stack, which seemed good enough so I pushed.
Bigstack showed K Q and the desperate shortstack1 showed Q8. It was really the best hands I could hope for to be up against.
Anyway, for those who care about results I hit two pair with my 65s and took it down, got a nice stack and ended up 2nd.[
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:54 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Did you yell "who's the AA camper now, b*tch?" and then roll around on the table covering yourself in your newly aquired chips? If not, I would recommend it for next time.
Another major factor here is payout structure. What was it?
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 4:19 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| suitedaces84 wrote: | Did you yell "who's the AA camper now, b*tch?" and then roll around on the table covering yourself in your newly aquired chips? If not, I would recommend it for next time.
Another major factor here is payout structure. What was it? |
I got so into the whole rolling thing/maniacal laughter thing I forgot to shout. 
Not all I forgot it seems. Top two got paid, 2/3 of the total goes to 1st.
Posted Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:59 pm GMT by zeroswarm
I think that was good play. 56 suited isn't that bad a hand to gamble with. Also the fact that theres 2 other players in the pot doesn't bother me atall. More chips if u happen to get lucky...
Posted Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:11 pm GMT by traz
I don't think there's much choice...because of the blinds, your best play is to push
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:49 pm GMT by Jauron
Heads up I like the play, 3 way that hand is ugly for all your chips.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:33 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| Jauron wrote: | | Heads up I like the play, 3 way that hand is ugly for all your chips. |
One of the good things about my hand is that I really don't lose to much chip equity even if another players enters the pot.
If we range bigstack on any broadway and any pair, any aceI have about 38% equity, if we range the desperate shortstack on the same hand range hand I drop too about 30% equity but for about a 30% higher pot.
I realize I lower my chances of staying alive, but only top two get paid, and winning this pot will give me a good chance of finishing in the money, but staying out of it and be left with 500 chips and 100/200 blinds will probably give me a 3rd.
My reasoning may be flawed, I'm just beginning to learn to use hand range simulations. so if anyone has input about this and/or my view...I'm eager to learn.
Posted Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:21 am GMT by Jauron
Didn't really know the math involved in this senerio was a little suprised to find your in good shape against a lot of different hands (so long as no overpairs)
Interesting...
I made a similair move last night, 1 out of the money and hurting bad as the shorest stack. Blinds were chewing me up and I couldn't find a hand. 9,10os in the SB, I called hoping to see a flop BB pushed on me as I expected. I said lets gamble and called it. Up against AK of hearts.
Lucky for me, by the turn I had a straight flush.
BTW, went on to win the damn thing.
Posted Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:05 am GMT by tame_deuces
| Jauron wrote: | .
Lucky for me, by the turn I had a straight flush.
BTW, went on to win the damn thing. |
Now that's just perfect timing.
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:41 am GMT by AHBrownell
Player 1: About 3000 chips.
Player 2: About 400 chips.
You: About 700 chips.
Player 3: ???
If you started with 1000 chips each, that places the player 3 at about 1900 chips.
If you don't double up you will likely out survive player 2, but it is highly unlikely that you will get a great hand in the next 6-8 hands (when you are too busted out to truly comeback) to get ahead of Player 3. I don't like calling an all-in and a call here. Even if a player is desperate, typically calling two players representing strong hands with tiny cards is usually setting yourself up to lose. Yes its a suited connector - but definately one of the worst ones.
Like many people said, I would likely call a single player all-in. Heads up, you hit a pair, even a 5 and you win the pot most of the time, but 2 players make it much more likely that you are up against a PP or four overcards - both of which will usually spell doom for your hand.
GL HF.
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 4:26 am GMT by tame_deuces
If I fold here. When it is over I either am the shortstack of 3 or 4 players with 1.5 BB left and I'll have to post the small blind. So basically I then have 2-3 hands to double up to 3 BB...which is still too little.....Now I have a 30% shot at making my 4~ bb into about 12 BB. I simply don't think this tourney is going to offer me better odds than that to get back into the action.
I know I originally posted this thing as a question, but after having reviewed it...I think this one of those situations where I have no choice.
But I can promise you one thing...I take 65s over A2s in this situation any day.
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