Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:34 am GMT by pete29
Hi. I just had an interesing holdem fl session. It was a down session, nothing too crazy about that but just wanted to see if I am seeing the following odds correct.
I played around 250 hands and out of those I held pocket pairs 21 times which is a little high for the number of hands that I played. Anyway, an ace hit the board 16 of the 21 times I held pocket pairs. I wasn't actually in the hand for all the pairs, and one of the five times an ace didn't hit, I held pocket aces, so that one almost doesn't count but I left it in anyway.
Of those 16 times, an ace hit the flop 14 times. I thought that was a bit high, by my calculations, an ace should hit the flop around 1 in 8 times, and hit by the river 1 in 5 times. For my case that would mean 2 or 3 times for the flop and around 5 by the river.
Also, I held an ace pre-flop 19 times. Of those 19, an ace hit a total of 4 times and two of those came on the flop. Now these stats fit my calculations a little better.
Anyway, my question is, am I right that an ace (or any particular card by that matter) will hit the flop at a rate of 1 in around 8 times and will hit by the river at a rate of around 1 in every 5 times over the long run.
Oh, also, I only hit a set with one of those 21 pairs and that wasn't on the flop.
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Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:49 am GMT by Loonbat
Too low a sample to draw statistical conclusions from. Sorry I don't have a better answer.
But I know when I hold Ks, an A hits the flop 92.4% of the time ... hmm. Maybe it just feels that way.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:58 am GMT by pete29
I understand that this is a small sample size, it just seemed a little excessive, even for the short run. I have had plenty of other weird things happen short run before like the same two cards (includingthe suits) dealt in two consecutive hands and I even once had the same pocket pair (not same suits) dealt in three consecutive hands once.
My question here is, should an ace (or any other particular card) hit the flop at a rate of 1 time in 7 or 8 over the long run? And should it hit by the river at a rate of 1 in 5 times over the long run? If my calculations are corrrect, having it happen at a rate 6 or 7 times the statistical norm is a little weird. Thanks.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:02 am GMT by Loonbat
Take a sample of several thousand hands and you'll find it will approach the "norm" for hitting on the flop and hitting on the board. In the shortrun, nearly ANYTHING can happen. Having the same back-to-back pocket pair is about a 1 in 50,000 occurrence. I may see this happen twice in one game and then not see it again for 3 months.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:40 am GMT by Skribbles
Unfortunetly... Loonbat is right. Sometimes you'll run through 50 pockets and never hit a set on the flop. Then one night, every time you'll hit and get paid off.
In a tourny tonight, I had 66 back to back, once from the small blind and once from the button. Seen the flop with both, hit a set with both and doubled up with both. Odds of that happening are extremely remote... but sh*t happens.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:47 am GMT by Loonbat
| Skribbles wrote: | | Unfortunetly... Loonbat is right. |
That's it ... time to start stalking your tables when you come back to the Pokerstars' ring games.
Posted Fri Oct 07, 2005 12:27 pm GMT by Skribbles
| Loonbat wrote: | | That's it ... time to start stalking your tables when you come back to the Pokerstars' ring games. |
I'll be back soon to take your cash 
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