A strong draw versus two aggressors |
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Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:49 am GMT by tame_deuces
Live 3-handed NL play. SNG style. I'm on the button. 4 players initially, 400 chips starting stack, starting blinds 2/4. Current Blinds 10/20. Winner take 3/4.
Villain1: Generally a passive player, but has a flair for knowing when he
is ahead and can have spontaneous outbursts of pushing in his stack or checkraising. He is a decent shorthanded player. Has about 200 chips.
Villain2: A decent poker player actually but may overvalue draws and push to much chips into the pot on pure bluffs. About 600 chips.
Hero: Hero has yet to show down a hand, or play a starting hand without an initial raise. About 800 chips.
On the button I'm dealt: 7 6
I call
Villain1 in the SB completes
Villain2 in the BB checks.
Pot: 60
Flop: K 2 7
Villain1 bets 30
Villain2 raises for 60 more
What line should hero take?
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Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:20 am GMT by traz
At the moment you have to make your decision, there is 150 in the pot (60 blinds + 30 + 60)...and thats not even counting the other 30 from Villain 1.
Pot odds end up being about 1/3 or 1/4
Assuming 2-pair is good, you have 14 outs (9 diamonds + 2 7's + 3 6's).
The odds justify a call imo, especially considering that you know Villain 2 often overbets.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:09 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Tough one because I'm thinking you don't want them both in against you.
If one has top pair & the other is on a bigger flush draw, you don't have many outs.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:09 pm GMT by TheSalche
im kinda thinking the problem here is you're squeezed between the villains, villain 1 could quite easily reraise a significant amount and then you have to lay it down, but it would cost you 90 chips, which is quite a significant amount, i think its safe to say you should fold this given chips counts too, if villain1 doubles through villain 2, they both have about 400 chips, and you have 800 so you're still in great shape ... if villain1 goes all in and loses to villain 2, you're about even to go heads up
best to sit this one out and live with the results, as TR said if one of them has a bigger flush draw you're only gonna be about 15% to win this one.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:44 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| TheSalche wrote: | | villain 1 could quite easily reraise a significant amount and then you have to lay it down |
Not if villian 2 stays around. You're usually better than 2:1 here. If villian 1 goes all-in, villian 2 calls it's should be an easy call. Even if villian 1 goes all-in and villian 2 dumps it's still really close to a call. You've got a big stack and a ton of outs this seems like a great place to gamble. The only thing I'm scared of is villian 1 goes raising and villian 2 re-raising.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:23 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | TheSalche wrote: | | villain 1 could quite easily reraise a significant amount and then you have to lay it down |
Not if villian 2 stays around. You're usually better than 2:1 here. If villian 1 goes all-in, villian 2 calls it's should be an easy call. Even if villian 1 goes all-in and villian 2 dumps it's still really close to a call. You've got a big stack and a ton of outs this seems like a great place to gamble. The only thing I'm scared of is villian 1 goes raising and villian 2 re-raising. |
I think against one opponent, you can call as you will be 50/50.
Against 2 players, 1 with a flush draw, you have very few outs.
Also against 2 players, if they have the right hands, you may have proper odds - But you are favored to lose - In a tourney, I would rather survive than try to hit a hand that I am favored to lose.
At this stage of the tourney, if both players want to be all in, these are 2 likely scenarios :
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:56 pm GMT by suitedaces84
I really doubt there's another FD out there. It's possible but I doubt it happens more then 15% of the time.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:16 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Personally I don't think the draw is very strong at all... and if I'm reading that correctly, he's only getting 2-to-1, not 3-to-1. If the 2nd guy raised for 60 more, then he raised to 90 total, making his total odds on a call 180-90, or 2-1. And factoring in reverse implied odds on the turn bets, I think this is a pretty clear laydown with a small pair and only a 7-high FD.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:40 pm GMT by suitedaces84
It's 150-60. That's 2.5-1. If the bettor calls on the end it's 3-1. Even if you can't win any more chips after improving and never see the river calling is still correct. Implied odds will hurt your oppoents more than they'll hurt you here because you can be pretty sure your hand is no good UI.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 8:45 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Does anyone have on opinion on if hero can gain anything from being aggressive here?
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:12 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Maybe. I'd just hate to lose one and not both. This hand is much easier to play with both of them around. HU you'll probably have to make a very tough decision on the turn if you don't hit. With both of them in you can fold without odds and not have "have I been bluffed?" paranoia.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:50 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Good answer there suited. I wish I thought of that in the heat of the moment. 
Ok, we alter the settings a little. We assume that _IF_ villain1 is continuing in the hand, he will push all his chips into the pot, 90-100 more chips.
This is also a 'likely' scenario with this player and his current chips. A simple call from him on the current pot would leave him with half his stack in the pot and a fold would leave him with 150 chips left. We can also assume from previous plays that with his initial bet out of position that he h is likely to have a legitimate hand.
As of yet villain2's action is impossible to predict with any certainty, he is an erratic player and his raise doesn't necessarily signify any strength.
How does this alter our thinking?
*edit*
And before anyone gets suspicious, these are not result-oriented assumptions.
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:59 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Maybe. I'd just hate to lose one and not both. This hand is much easier to play with both of them around. HU you'll probably have to make a very tough decision on the turn if you don't hit. With both of them in you can fold without odds and not have "have I been bluffed?" paranoia. |
No way. You think there would be a bet and a raise & they are both bluffing? Not likely.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:49 pm GMT by fiezk
This is three handed, a re-raise from Villain 2 (who is erratic and aggressive) might be tp with a decent kicker, it might be nothing at all.
you're in good shape against everything but a set or two pair. I'd consider re-raising about the size of the pot. If your read is correct, and villain 1 is the one with a legitimate hand (tp maybe?) he'd probably fold, as would villain 2 if he doesn't have a monster.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:20 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| 1988 TR wrote: | | suitedaces84 wrote: | | Maybe. I'd just hate to lose one and not both. This hand is much easier to play with both of them around. HU you'll probably have to make a very tough decision on the turn if you don't hit. With both of them in you can fold without odds and not have "have I been bluffed?" paranoia. |
No way. You think there would be a bet and a raise & they are both bluffing? Not likely. |
That's not what I was saying. My point was there much less likely to get out of line 3 handed than they are HU.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:40 pm GMT by howzit
deleted.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:43 pm GMT by howzit
btw, what hand would player 2 raise here w/that our guy has good equity against?
(take a look at 1988's hand ranges)
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:04 pm GMT by howzit
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | I really doubt there's another FD out there. It's possible but I doubt it happens more then 15% of the time. |
you'd be suprised 85% of the time.
kidding, given player 1 leading for half pot and player 2 making a somewhat minimal raise, flush draw is VERY possible here.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:11 pm GMT by howzit
| tame_deuces wrote: | | Does anyone have on opinion on if hero can gain anything from being aggressive here? |
so if you raise, you have no idea what player 2 will do? This is a perfect time to "gamble it up" and make a stand!!! May I suggest all-in?
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:22 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| howzit wrote: | | tame_deuces wrote: | | Does anyone have on opinion on if hero can gain anything from being aggressive here? |
so if you raise, you have no idea what player 2 will do? This is a perfect time to "gamble it up" and make a stand!!! May I suggest all-in? |
I asked for opinions, I didn't claim it was a good idea.
But if we actually believed villain2 would lay down a draw against push, it wouldn't be a horrendous play, we have about 43% equity against a random king in villain1's hands.
If we believe villain2 to have a draw he will not lay down, it is a horrible and pointless play.
If we set it up as 50/50 we may as you suggest be better of folding and saving our chips for a rainy day.
I just thought this was an interesting hand.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:17 pm GMT by howzit
here's what i wrote first then deleted. . .
you're playing for your stack if you call here. . . if you call, player 1 has a push/fold situation and then you're pot-commited anyway.
if you raise, you have to raise to $200 even to put player 1 all-in (50/50 EV most likley) and then there is the % of time player 2 comes over the top as you described him to be aggresive w/draws (not good for you) or w/a hand that barely has you beat but he's bad enough to move it in anyway. You risk your chip lead to double up player 1 w/out knowing if player 2 is willing to laydown to your raise (he won't if he has a big draw correct?)
fold, lose your blind. Move on.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:49 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| howzit wrote: | here's what i wrote first then deleted. . .
you're playing for your stack if you call here. . . if you call, player 1 has a push/fold situation and then you're pot-commited anyway.
if you raise, you have to raise to $200 even to put player 1 all-in (50/50 EV most likley) and then there is the % of time player 2 comes over the top as you described him to be aggresive w/draws (not good for you) or w/a hand that barely has you beat but he's bad enough to move it in anyway. You risk your chip lead to double up player 1 w/out knowing if player 2 is willing to laydown to your raise (he won't if he has a big draw correct?)
fold, lose your blind. Move on. |
Agreed. Taken into consideration that I do have a sizeable stack, am insecure at where I am in this hand, have little invested in it %-wise of my stack and adding that calling would leave me in no better position than I am at the current moment (since we really must expect villain1 to push into this put if I call) but only pot commit me even more. I agree that folding is the best option.
Posted Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:19 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| howzit wrote: |
if you raise, you have to raise to $200 even to put player 1 all-in (50/50 EV most likley) and then there is the % of time player 2 comes over the top as you described him to be aggresive w/draws (not good for you) or w/a hand that barely has you beat but he's bad enough to move it in anyway. You risk your chip lead to double up player 1 w/out knowing if player 2 is willing to laydown to your raise (he won't if he has a big draw correct?) |
So villian 2 is going all-in with a draw and another player all-in already? Villian would have to be terrible to attempt this. I really doubt you have to play for your whole stack here.
Posted Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:14 am GMT by howzit
let's say if player 2 is aggresive w/his draws, what makes you think he would fold his draw this time?
i would guess there's more money going into this pot then i want to, but then player 2 might just fold so that way Deuces gets to put his $ money in as a 50/50 w/ no fold equity.
i think he's playing for at least 1/4 of his stack and potentially up to 3/4 because of player's 2 holdings. but today i saw somebody min-check-raise the river w/Q3 on a Q-J-9-7-4 board so who knows what kids are up to these days.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 4:09 pm GMT by tame_deuces
It occured to me that I actually forgot to write what happened in this hand. I figured the shortstack had a king and would call nomatter what...but I also figured I could be fifty/fifty versus a king....and if I could get bigstack number two too fold...then there would be dead money in the pot and my play more than justified.
So I pushed.
Shortstack called.
Bigstack moaned, whined, complained, motioned his hand towards the muck but finally called with a queen high flushdraw, shortstack showed K7 - and I wasn't very happy. No running 6s either, go figure.
Flush hit.
2 head's up hours later I had turned the table on my opponent's 7:1 chiplead and finally busted him...but this play sure didn't help making it easy.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:42 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Bummer - Exactly why you don't want them both in.... 
If you are heads up you have outs against any one player. Against both players, this is exactly what you wouldn't want to see - you are practicaly dead.
I think you played it ok, not sure how the Q high flush draw can call there....
The thing is if you push here, you ARE behind. The only thing you can pray for his a bigger flush draw & even that will have a ton of outs against you.
Fold or All in - Only 2 options in my book. Keeping both players around is suicide.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:47 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Maybe. I'd just hate to lose one and not both. This hand is much easier to play with both of them around. HU you'll probably have to make a very tough decision on the turn if you don't hit. With both of them in you can fold without odds and not have "have I been bluffed?" paranoia. |
Care to re-think this?
You really don't want them both in here - The outcome of this hand is exactly why - Drawing practicaly dead is the worst place you could put yourself in. Heads up - What is the worst case scenario?? Against one pair, u still have the flush out, two pair out, trips out, etc. Against a higher flush draw, the guy needs to hit an overcard to your 7 (And you don't improve) or hit the flush (Only 7 outs). Even against a set, you have a fighting chance.
If the player could have got the K7 heads up, at least his flush outs were live. As it ended up, he was dead to runner, runner 6's.
Against 2 players, you can put yourself in a very bad spot - Something you really need to avoid.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:16 pm GMT by suitedaces84
It's pretty easy to say that now that you know the results. It's still unlikely that you're up against another FD.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:27 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | It's pretty easy to say that now that you know the results. It's still unlikely that you're up against another FD. |
I thought it was pretty easy to say when I posted it before the results....
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 9:01 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | It's pretty easy to say that now that you know the results. It's still unlikely that you're up against another FD. |
Without seeing the results, its the first thing I thought of & Howzit was on board also.
| howzit wrote: | | suitedaces84 wrote: | | I really doubt there's another FD out there. It's possible but I doubt it happens more then 15% of the time. |
you'd be suprised 85% of the time.
kidding, given player 1 leading for half pot and player 2 making a somewhat minimal raise, flush draw is VERY possible here. |
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 9:29 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Okay, I wasn't saying he won't have the FD. I was saying he probably won't given the info we have. In this case he did, this changes nothing, IMO.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 9:52 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Okay, I wasn't saying he won't have the FD. I was saying he probably won't given the info we have. In this case he did, this changes nothing, IMO. |
So you are not worried that the people that responded said watch out for the bigger flush draw & you wrote off those chances to 15%?
Heck, I even posted pics of what I thought she might be up against - Turns out they were dead on!
Thought it might be a good chance for you to have a 2nd look at your analysis.
Not sure what you get out of these forums if you don't look at other options & improve your game.
I posted this right after she started this post - I think these are the things you should be considering when looking at how you want to play this hand....
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 11:41 pm GMT by suitedaces84
I'm in the BB with KK. It's folded to a maniac on the button. He's stolen the blinds the past 20 times in a row in this situation with an all-in. He goes all-in again. The SB folds. I call, he shows AA and takes my stack. Should I have played the hand differently?
If you really think villian 2 has the FD raising all-in isn't bad at all. You'll be a favorite 52-48. Certainly not where you want to be but it's not even close to a disaster, and there's a good chance he folds it. I'm assuming "is aggressive with draws" does not mean 'has no clue about odds and calls that are clearly bad'.
In general it's a bad policy to isolate while drawing.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 11:47 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: |
If you really think villian 2 has the FD raising all-in isn't bad at all. You'll be a favorite 52-48. Certainly not where you want to be but it's not even close to a disaster, and there's a good chance he folds it. I'm assuming "is aggressive with draws" does not mean 'has no clue about odds and calls that are clearly bad'.
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Exactly what we have been saying - Heads up, its an even match, and it's up to the player if they want to put their tourney on a 50/50.
The discussion was if you want the 3rd player in.
I don't think I would want the 3rd person in.... You seem to like it.
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:03 am GMT by suitedaces84
That's because I didn't think villian 2 had a FD.
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:09 am GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | That's because I didn't think villian 2 had a FD. |
If you don't think he has a FD, then you absolutely want him. That is a no-brainer.
The question is, given the range of hands, do you want to get this hand heads up, or do you want to continue playing it 3 handed.
I just think you underestimated the chances of another player with a FD there & didn't think through how devestating it is when he does...
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 5:43 am GMT by tame_deuces
I'm sorry if I described villain2 improperly. At the time in the game I didn't know he was capable of calling big bets on a draw though...I had only seen him bet them big. Yes, he was a bit of a donk...but really not the calling type...I just think he got caught up in the moment. Not that I personally put him on a draw at the time...but I thought he had a weak hand.
Well...from my own thinking of the hand I came up with the following.
1. Playing suited connectors against the 'any two suited guy' is playing
with fire...eventually you get hurt.
2. Calling/playing with a draw between two aggressors in no limit (well, and poker in general) is...dangerous. (I think that is the real issue in this hand).
3. Without trying to be results oriented here, I think from the action alone it seems fairly clear this could become a showdown between these two players, and it can be good play to not get involved in that showdown.
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:28 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| tame_deuces wrote: | I'm sorry if I described villain2 improperly. At the time in the game I didn't know he was capable of calling big bets on a draw though...I had only seen him bet them big. Yes, he was a bit of a donk...but really not the calling type...I just think he got caught up in the moment. Not that I personally put him on a draw at the time...but I thought he had a weak hand.
Well...from my own thinking of the hand I came up with the following.
1. Playing suited connectors against the 'any two suited guy' is playing
with fire...eventually you get hurt.
2. Calling/playing with a draw between two aggressors in no limit (well, and poker in general) is...dangerous. (I think that is the real issue in this hand).
3. Without trying to be results oriented here, I think from the action alone it seems fairly clear this could become a showdown between these two players, and it can be good play to not get involved in that showdown. |
I think you are correct in your thinking.
You need to know that even if you do get this hands heads up, you are a coin flip to win - So it's kind of like any other coin flip decision - Your rank in the tourney, do you need to double up, etc.
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