I need help with odds calculation |
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Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:29 pm GMT by pocketBarns
I'm looking to take my game to the next level. I do well in kitchen games and have recently started a regular poker group at my college, but I really want to improve. I see people talking about "knowing" that if there opponent is on a flush draw then they have only a 30% chance of winning, so give them 3:1 odds and stuff like that. I kind of understand what this concept is, but I don't understand how you get the 30%.
How do you calculate (or estimate) hand percentages, and could someone please elaborate just a little on the notation of "3:1", and how to arrive at the conclusion of those particular odds?
By the way, this is my first post, I have been lurking for a while and I really like the community. I hope to learn alot here, I've already picked up some useful tidbits. 
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:43 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Is this what you were looking for? Also try the links on the left side there's useful information there.
Calculation your odds based on your outs is pretty simple but you usually won't have enough time to do it during a hand. I'd recommend memorizing the following for starters:
OESD--4.5:1
Gutshot--11:1
Four flush--4:1
Posted Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:38 pm GMT by traz
The 4/2 rule gives a rough estimate for on-the-fly calculations.
It works as such. When you see the flop, calculate the number of outs. Multiply this number by 4, and thats the percent of hitting on the turn OR river
Multiply by 2, and its only the odds of hitting on the turn.
For instance, if the flop has 2 hearts, and you hold 2 hearts, then there are 9 cards to complete your flush draw. You hold a 36% chance of completing it on the turn OR river...and an 18% chance of hitting it on the turn. Those are rough numbers, but close enough.
A 75% chance of winning would be a 3:1 ratio. A 25% chance of winning would be a 1:4 ratio.
A 30% chance of winnining is about 1:2.5 (closer to 1:2.3)
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