Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:18 am GMT by snoogins47
Canterbury $4/$8 game. Game is typical, few gamboolers, few solid players. Fairly early in my session.
Folds to me two off the button, I look down at 5h6h and raise because I'm awesome. SB makes it 3-bets. SB is a solid player, a hair on the tight side, but I'll eat my shorts if he's not a winner in this game.
BB, a reasonable player who could probably get into a bar using Daniel Negreanu's ID calls, and I call. 3 of us to the flop in a 9SB pot:
Ah 5s 2d
SB bets, BB folds, Hero....
Gotta hop an airplane, but I'll check back later today.
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Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:03 am GMT by Dave B
You raised and took down the pot w/ that raise or a turn bet.
No one decent (and tight) raises to 3 bets w/ AK or less in the blind. So he had a big pair. You properly represented the ace, which worked since you raised preflop.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:16 pm GMT by Aves
If the SB is as solid as you say he is, he should recognize your late position raise as a possible steal attempt and would thus 3-bet with a much wider range than AK and big pairs. I would also include other pocket pairs 8 and above, high broadway cards such as: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, suited and unsuited. With these hands, it is correct to 3-bet so you can take initiative and hopefully get the BB out who would be getting 5-1 on his call.
SB's flop bet does not mean much and is pretty much automatic since he put in the last raise. At this point, I would estimate your equity at around 40%, which is enough to continue with the hand since there is the Big Blind's dead money in there.
Depending on your read of the player, I would continue in one of two ways: raise the flop, bet the turn, check river; or call flop, raise turn, check river.
The default play I would say is to raise the flop, bet the turn, and check the river. This costs you only 2 BB. If he reraises you on the flop or raises you on the turn, I would tend to fold.
Let's say you just call the flop bet. If he checks the turn, I would bet. If the turn is ten or lower and he bets, I would raise his turn bet and fold to a 3 bet. I would also check the river if my hand does not improve to trips or 2 pair. This line costs you 2.5 BB but gives you a chance to make him fold a better hand like pocket 7s through Ks.
If he calls your turn bet or raise and bets out on the river, I would go with my read. Whatever the turn card is, it probably will not put many draws out there, so I can't really put him on a complete bluff with a missed draw. I am getting around 10.5-1 on the call. So again, I would have to go with my read about whether to fold or call the river.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:07 pm GMT by Phil14312
Raise the flop, bet the turn, fold to aggression on the turn if he waited until the big street to raise. I would also catch my runner runner straight/flush so I could confidently raise the river.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:15 pm GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | No one decent (and tight) raises to 3 bets w/ AK or less in the blind. So he had a big pair. You properly represented the ace, which worked since you raised preflop |
You wouldn't three bet with AK?
err.. I'd 3 bet around.. 90% of the time?
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:46 pm GMT by 1988 TR
I would raise & try to get a free card on the turn.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:19 pm GMT by supafrey
oh yeah. ermm..
my play: Raise. If called but no help comes and he checks, bet, fold to any aggro on the turn.
alternatively:
raise, if he 3bets, i cap, probably, and see what he does on the turn.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:34 pm GMT by Phil14312
| 1988 TR wrote: | | I would raise & try to get a free card on the turn. |
If he just calls the flop and checks to me on the turn I bet out every time representing the ace because you can get him to fold a big pair. Checking the turn doesn't allow you to win the pot without a showdown, which is probably what I'm looking for here.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:54 pm GMT by Skribbles
I raise him on the flop.
-if he 3 bets, I call and fold if the turn is no help.
If he calls, he'll most likely check the turn to you
-check behind unimproved
-bet out and hope to take it down
My turn play depends on my feeling at the time. If I feel like he will fold, I bet it.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:17 pm GMT by Iron Butt
Well, since Snoog went to the trouble of posting this I'm sure he did raise and then won in some bizarre fashion LOL but I'll admit it: I fold here.
This is basically a steal attempt gone wrong, is it not? I understand raising with 65s looking to steal either right there or on the flop or hit my hand of course; I even understand calling the 1 sb reraise with 8 in the pot looking to hit the flop or bet a junk flop, but that board's a little too thin on our end to keep chasing IMO. I'm looking to save my chips for a better shot.
For a raise to work we need the tight, solid SB to not have a strong ace and/or put us on a better hand and/or be making an out-of-position semi-bluff with KK or whatnot. Seems a little optimistic to me.
Looking at it from other perspectives, if you were the SB holding AK do you slow down to a raise here? If you were watching someone play the 65s for raise after raise wouldn't you think he was a terrible fish? No offense intended to everyone who says raise, but really, wouldn't you?
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:24 pm GMT by supafrey
The only prob with that, Iron, is that if you don't do continuation raises with stuff like this you will NEVER get a steal attempt to work.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:39 pm GMT by Dave B
I always raise to 2 bets w/ AK, but not 3 unless I am in position.
It is still a drawing hand that will miss the flop 65% of the time.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:02 pm GMT by supafrey
missing the flop, and losing to a hand worthy of raising in late position are two different things.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:48 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Dave B wrote: | | It is still a drawing hand that will miss the flop 65% of the time. |
missing flop =! being behind
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:58 pm GMT by supafrey
didn't i just say that.
Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:26 pm GMT by Phil14312
Depending on Snoog's image SB probably has AQ (if Snoog tries this stuff a lot), AK, TT-AA. His bet on the flop is almost automatic. You're raise on the flop probably gets:
A) 3-bet. In which case you call and fold to no-help on the turn.
B) Called and checked to on the turn: In which case you bet and fold to a check-raise. If he calls, check behind on the river because he is calling you down with whatever he has.
In conclusion: his bet on the flop doesn't tell us anything about the strength of his hand. Represent the Ace he might fear and raise the flop. Anything else is weak/passive.
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:31 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Iron Butt wrote: | | Looking at it from other perspectives, if you were the SB holding AK do you slow down to a raise here? |
Only because I'm waiting to check-raise the turn.
| Iron Butt wrote: | | If you were watching someone play the 65s for raise after raise wouldn't you think he was a terrible fish? No offense intended to everyone who says raise, but really, wouldn't you? |
No. In fact, I'd be very afraid of the player who will raise with second pair in position. These are the dangerous players that know how to push the edges, get to the river cheaply when they don't improve and punish you with extra bets when they do. If you want to consider this player a fish, you do so at your own peril.
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:45 pm GMT by Iron Butt
Long one, sorry.
(shrug) Sure, frey, but IMO if you want to be able to steal you also have to demonstrate you can fold once in a while. :D
And I get raising with second pair too Sean... when it's better than 5s, or when I have a better draw, or a scary board, or something other than a chance at a "free" card which actually costs 2 sb minimum to chase 5 outs... as to punishing with extra bets, seems to me that's more what the tight, solid player with the big ace in the SB is going to do and he's going to do it 4 out of 5 times.
As to small edges, I don't think this even works out even... OK so you're getting 5 to 1 on your 2 sb "free card" play which is indeed a small edge IF you get to the river on that one bet... but if you only see one card you're way behind, making a 5 to 1 bet when you're more like 9 to 1 against... and you lost your third player so from here on out reverse implied odds are significant, bets are double and you're still 4 to 1 against. So you don't actually have a small edge, you're at a pretty bad disadvantage relying on being given a free card just to get you to the point where you have a small edge. Does the free card play work every time? No, it doesn't. Let's say your play works 3 of 5 times. So 40% of the time you're facing extra big bets with only a 10% chance that you hit. (If you want to say it works 4/5 times I'd say that's very optimistic but OK, you're still looking at extra bets 20% of the time etc.) I don't see any practical way of working this out definitively since it depends on weird variables like how often a free card play works and reverse implied odds estimation LOL but this doesn't seem like a good spot to me. Certainly you're going to see better if you hold on to your chips.
Again, the key thing to me is that as I read the question, for a raise to make sense, i.e. we're not just chasing our 5-ish at best outs, we need this player that we're told is "tight" and "solid" to be trying to pull one out of his ass from out of position here, rather than having a strong hand he plans on playing out for maximum value, like we might expect of a tight, solid player.
Anyway, it's all good, you all play yours and I'll play mine. I did think it would be good to express the possibility of another opinion. I mean, it's obvious what the "right" answer is, I'm pretty sure Snoog didn't post this so he could tell us how he folded on the flop LOL. There is a case for raising, certainly it's been well covered, by the first 2 or 3 people even LOL. I just don't think it's beyond discussion. Do you all honestly think there's no case to fold here? You all raise in this situation every single time?
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:41 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Iron Butt wrote: | | Do you all honestly think there's no case to fold here? |
That's what I honestly think. You have 5+ outs. You're getting 7:1 after the rake. By the time the hand is over it will in the area of 12:1. You only need 8.4:1 to call. Calling and dumping on the turn UI is better than folding, so no I don't consider folding here.
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:19 pm GMT by supafrey
why do I get the idea Snoo posted this for no real reason...
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:21 pm GMT by Iron Butt
Those are good points aces. Of course calling is an option and of course the rake isn't in our favor.
Still feels like chasing to me... and as you point out I think the rake takes even calling out of +EV. Using your figure, it's a 7:1 bet and you're slightly better than 9:1 against for the next card. (The backdoor draw's worth half an out, right?)
If you want to include implied odds you also have to include reverse implied odds of an equal amount since there's just two of you left. So to look at the odds overall, or as you put it by the time the hand is over, there's a pot of say 19 sb, 8 of which will have been yours. Minus rake. Barely over 2:1, and you're slightly under 4:1 to win. Let's say you hit and get a couple extra big bets out of him; final pot 27 sb, 12 were yours. Minus rake. Actually slightly worse expressed as odds. I don't see any possible scenario where you're getting even 3:1 in the end for the almost 4:1 odds you're facing. This is a really good way to look at it I think, it really points out that there's only 3 sb of dead money in there, which makes the pot odds look good on the flop for this one bet, but you're likely to spend a lot more chasing it at a significant disadvantage. Am I wrong? Show me where...
 LOL @ supafrey...
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:48 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Iron Butt wrote: | | If you want to include implied odds you also have to include reverse implied odds of an equal amount since there's just two of you left... |
Not if you plan to fold the turn UI. BTW, that would be my line of choice. I think you're getting 3-bet or donked too much. And I doubt there are many 4/8 casino players capable of laying down a big pair HU. If Snoogins thinks this guy will lay down a big pair then I change my answer. I still think I'd lean towards calling and raising the turn. If you're gonna push a good player off their hand I think the turn is the place to do it.
Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:14 pm GMT by Dave B
Guys, throw out pot odds, EV and equity, that is not a factor here. You have a solid tight player, the raise on the flop would give you all the information you need.
You cant make a poor player lay down a potential winner, only a good player.
If he calls, then bet again or take your free card and see what happens. You really want him to fold here.
Posted Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:19 pm GMT by suitedaces84
So what happened, Snoog?
Posted Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:36 pm GMT by supafrey
damn you snooooooog!
Posted Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:23 pm GMT by Iron Butt
That's an interesting perspective Dave. I agree that sometimes you have to throw out the odds etc. and that you can sometimes make a more skilled player fold where you couldn't a less skilled player. I guess it shows the degree to which you trust your reads.
Yeah, cmon Snoog, what's it all about?? 
Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:06 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Dave B wrote: | Guys, throw out pot odds, EV and equity, that is not a factor here. You have a solid tight player, the raise on the flop would give you all the information you need.
You cant make a poor player lay down a potential winner, only a good player.
If he calls, then bet again or take your free card and see what happens. You really want him to fold here. |
Silly Davey. It's always a factor, whether or not we want to admit it 
As to those questioning like, everything:
Results:
I called, but only because I intended on check-raising the turn. My "default" play is easily to raise the flop and bet the turn regardless, and if 3bet on the flop, peel one off and fold unimproved.
Dave's first post was good for me. I posted this hand for a few reasons, but primarily it was that a)at the time this seemed like a ludicrously easy time that I needed to put a raise in at some point, and b)it seems reckless enough, to a lot of people (including my opponent, who folded and claimed he folded AK... note to self: semi-bluff the TURN against this player, not the flop. I told him about two hours later what I had, when he asked me again)
Given how standard it felt to me, but how odd it felt to some who I had mentioned it to, I kinda wanted to bring it up here for discussion. I like affirmation, and it also gives a good insight into a lot of poker concepts too.
Don't want to bore you all with the math and reasoning here so I'll be quick:
10SB in the pot (before rake, obviously). I'm on a hotel computer in California so I don't have access to Pokerstove but against opponent's range of hands here, not only a)are we probably only about a 3.5 to 1 underdog (quick rough estimate given a range AA-TT/AK but we also have to realize that even given that range, our opponent still has a non-ace one pair hand the majority of the time, and that hand is put to a ludicrously tough decision, ESPECIALLY given that I was somewhat of an unknown. If he ends up calling my turn raise and looking me up with TT or something, I'm going to end up with all his money anyway, I'll just have to adjust.
By the way, waiting for the turn like this is definitely a riskier play, but it's something that is very powerful against decent players in games that seem to be playing passive. It also jams more money in the pot, which is good, because (I didn't want to include the specifics of the read just yet) but I don't think this player is taking non-pair hands to 3-bets from the blind hardly ever, despite the obvious steal position I'm raising from. When he's much more likely to have a pair, I have a big enough 'edge,' bluffing wise, that I feel the turn c/r is more powerful. This absolutely blows when he checks the turn behind me, until I river trips and get to say "Hey don't yell at me: they were sooted."
My 15 minutes are up, so you all will have to wait for me to bore you with even more inane and pointless details. I'll be back in a few days.
Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:45 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| snoogins47 wrote: | | I called, but only because I intended on check-raising the turn. |
I think check-raising the turn is a terrible play when you have position on your oppoent. Do you see why?
Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:58 pm GMT by Dave B
ya, tough to check raise the SB from late position.
You will need to show me that trick snoogie
Posted Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:19 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Dave B wrote: | ya, tough to check raise the SB from late position.
You will need to show me that trick snoogie |
You just haven't reached that level of poker zen.
So I meant raise. I'm not going to edit my post, because it's much more fun to leave my error and let people scratch their heads. I also am scratching mine, because I actually went so far with the error to mention my opponent "checking behind" on the turn. My brain don't work so goot.
I'll blame it on the hotel clerk. There was a 10 minute limit on using the shared computer, and he was staring at me the whole time... I choked under the pressure.
Posted Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:36 pm GMT by supafrey
this is why you will never satisfy a woman.
EDIT: yes, i meant because the hotel clerk will always be there.
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