Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:30 pm GMT by TheSalche
I'm going to present to you an arguement ... see if it makes sense ... and I'm going to do the math on the fly to try to prove it. Common situation, top pair vs. middle pair off the flop. Top pair is 82% to win, since middle pair must hit trips or two pair. However, realistically, depending what card comes on the turn, the top pair may improve further and middle pair may NEED to hit trips or be drawing dead. Conversely middle pair may improve, but top pair can re-draw on the river. I'm investigating to see if this 82% is a true percentage ... wish me luck wasting my time.
FLOP: K 8 3
Player A: AK Player B (donk): J8
In the deck: 45 cards remain, 5 improve A, 5 improve B, remaining 30 also in favor of A. Of those cards, 2 of A's make B drawing dead, 3 of them eliminate them to 2 outs, 2 of B's make A draw to 2 cards, 3 of B's make A re-draw for 5 outs
Situations:
Double blank, 30/40 * 29/39 = 55.769% A wins
First card blank then ....
A improves: 30/40 * 5/39 = 9.615% A wins
B improves: 30/40 * 5/39 = 9.615% B wins
First card trips up A, B is dead so: 2/40 * 39/39 = 5% A wins
First card makes A two pair, then
Blank/A improves: 3/40 * 37/39 = 7.115% A wins
B improves to trips: 3/40 * 2/40 = .375% B wins
First card improves B to 2 pair, then
Blank/B improves: 3/40 * 34/39 = 6.538% B wins
A improves: 3/40 * 5/40 = .9375% A wins
First card improves B to trips, then
Blank/B improves: 2/40 * 37/39 = 4.744% B wins
A improves: 2/40 * 2/40 = .25% A wins
somebody check my math and reasoning ...
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Posted Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:50 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Player 1: A  K 
Player 2: J 8
Board: K  8  2
Player 1 has 81.616% equity. I got this from poker stove. It's much easier and more accurate than doing the math.
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