KT suited w/ flush and straight draws... |
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Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 6:34 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I was playing .5-.10 NL on Noble Poker this morning and ran into a rough loss. I was hoping I could post this in the idea that someone might offer a bit of advice. So here is the hand...
5 players - I am the second person to act - one over from the player next to the buttons.
Dealt Kh Th
First player folds, I call, next player calls, small blind folds, big blind calls. 3 players see the flop.
Flop is Qh Jc 7h
I have flopped a open-ended straight draw, with the 2nd highest flush draw, and an overcard. (I calculated this to be about 15 outs)
BB raises .50, I call, the button, who has just sat down at the table one hand before, goes all-in, the BB calls, I think about it; decide its only 4.50 to call (with a large enough pot to make it worth it) and do so.
Turn comes Jd
River comes 7c
The button shows Js 7d - he had a full house at the turn, although he went all-in before this. 
I cry and leave the table $5 poorer.
Did I play this hand right? Thanks for any help.
-Andrew
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Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 7:13 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| AHBrownell wrote: | | My later analysis of this hand is that is was actually incorrect for me to call the .50 raise to start with. Yes, I have a great draw, and I am not likely drawing dead, but I am actually getting 3:4 odds in terms of EV. |
I'm not sure exactly what you mean by this. But your ratios are all screwed up. It's impossible (neglecting rake) to be getting worse than 1:1 on a call. You're actually getting 12 (minus rake):5, you must include your oppoent's bet here. It's also likely that you'll win more from him on later streets if you your draw hits. If you think you can take $1.50 (this is pretty reasonable, IMO) off him on the turn and river if one of your draws hits you'd be getting 23:5. So that should make it an easy call. Then the other guy goes all-in and the first guy calls. The pot is $10+$.5+$.6-rake which is about $10. Now it's only $4.50 to call. So you're getting 10:4.5 on your call. That's better than 2:1. Do you expect to win this pot 30% of the time? Yes, easily. So that should be another easy call. If one guy goes all-in and the other folds it would be a tough spot because there might not be enough money in there to make a call correct. But as is you played the hand correctly.
Don't get down about losing a buy-in. It's part of the game.
Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:09 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I was usually King Yao's DIPO method for my analysis, though I may or may not have applied it correctly.
According to Yao you take the number of Small Bets in the pot (the total that will be in if you call) and you multiply that number by the number of outs you have. In this case that is (3.5 + 5 + 5) x 15 outs = 13.5 x 15 = 202.5.
Then you take the number of cards left in the deck and subtract the number of outs and multiply that number by the number of Small Bets to call. In this case (47-15) x 5 = 160.
If the first number is higher then the second number it is worth it to call. So I was RIGHT to call the first raise. 
Ok then the other player goes all in (45 Small Bets to me) and the other guy calls (again 45 more Small Bets to me).
Doing the dipo method again --> 148.5 Small Bets x 15 outs = 2227.5 (1st number), (47-15) x 45 small bets to call) = 1440 (2nd number).
Again first number is bigger than the second number so the right play is to call. So ---- I was right to call the second raise then too!
In retrospect I suppose I played this hand correctly. Thx for the help in seeing what I "felt" was the right play. Indeed it sucks to lose hehe. 
Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:26 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| AHBrownell wrote: | I was usually King Yao's DIPO method for my analysis, though I may or may not have applied it correctly.
According to Yao you take the number of Small Bets in the pot (the total that will be in if you call) and you multiply that number by the number of outs you have. In this case that is (3.5 + 5 + 5) x 15 outs = 13.5 x 15 = 202.5.
Then you take the number of cards left in the deck and subtract the number of outs and multiply that number by the number of Small Bets to call. In this case (47-15) x 5 = 160.
If the first number is higher then the second number it is worth it to call. So I was RIGHT to call the first raise.
Ok then the other player goes all in (45 Small Bets to me) and the other guy calls (again 45 more Small Bets to me).
Doing the dipo method again --> 103.5 Small Bets x 15 outs = 1552.5 (1st number), (47-15) x 45 small bets to call) = 1440 (2nd number).
Again first number is bigger than the second number so the right play is to call. So ---- I was right to call the second raise then too!
In retrospect I suppose I played this hand correctly. Thx for the help in seeing what I "felt" was the right play. Indeed it sucks to lose hehe. |
Good grief... and you expect to do that kind of math in the 15 seconds before your timer is up? I'm lucky to be able to add up the number of outs I have!
Posted Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:13 pm GMT by suitedaces84
That math is flawed for situations like yours. It only takes into account the next card. Keep in mind you have two cards to catch one of your 15 outs, not one. The math would apply if you weren't all in and could be forced to fold if you miss on the turn, but you know for a fact that you'll get to see a river here.
Posted Wed Oct 26, 2005 5:52 am GMT by MindsEye
quote="suitedaces84" | AHBrownell wrote: | Do you expect to win this pot 30% of the time? Yes, easily. So that should be another easy call. If one guy goes all-in and the other folds it would be a tough spot because there might not be enough money in there to make a call correct. But as is you played the hand correctly.
Don't get down about losing a buy-in. It's part of the game. |
For only one person all in:
The only thing you would really have to fear is a set (3 of a kind) or Ah Jh where you are about a 2-3 underdog but the chance that he is bluffing/has less than two pair makes that possibility tolerable I think.
If he has two pair its 50-50.
edit: It occured to me that he would probably raise with QQ or JJ preflop so that's two hands that you don't have to worry about as much
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