QQ hand, with 3 hearts flopped |
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Posted Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:59 pm GMT by traz
Read: Villain seems to be ok. A little weak, except when he raises preflop. Whenever he raises preflop, he usually follows up with a flop bet, regardless of whether he has it or not. He's picked up a bunch pots on the flop like that, when ppl fold.
At this point, my image is a little bit agressive. I've shown a couple good bluffs, so people think I'm bluffing more than I actually am.
Villain is SB with about $125
Hero is BB with about $140
1/2 NL ring game
Hero is dealt  
Folds around to Villain, he raises to $7. Hero re-raises to $20. Villain calls.
Flop ($40):   
Villain goes All-In for an additional $105
Hero??
EDIT-- Just thought I'd add, that as a read, I'd put the villain on KK, AA, JJ, 10/10, AK, AQ, AJ, A10...I'm about 98% sure he doesn't have a flush on the flop.
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Posted Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:23 pm GMT by TheSalche
the real problem here is that king overcard ... i think its pretty likely that he has at least te ace  maybe 75% - 80% of the time here making him 35% to win just on that
if he has a king and the ace of hearts, you are super screwed right now
it seems like a losing call ... when you're ahead in the hand you're not very far ahead and will stop lose the pot a decent amount of times, when you're behind you'll almost never win the hand
but let the NL ring game players speak their reasoning and show me why my super-conservative advice is wrong :D
Posted Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:21 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I have a strong aversion versus QQ with a K or an A on the board, that would scare me more than the three hearts. I think you have to have a read on villain saying he bluffs _alot_ for this to be a profitable call, even with the Q-high flush draw (well, K-high really I guess).
It can smell of a A semibluff like thesalche said, but I can also be a panic bet because he doesn't have any hearts (yes, people do these...).
Posted Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:12 pm GMT by Moon_Child
he did raise preflop 7 dollars, so i believe he had a big hand... i would put him on AK or KK... and i think QQ is a pretty east lay down anyways... i wouldn't risk losing 100 more dollars on such a ugly flop with a king on the board.
but come to think of it, i put villian on a lower set. so lay it down and move on.
Posted Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:38 am GMT by snoogins47
| TheSalche wrote: | | the real problem here is that king overcard ... i think its pretty likely that he has at least te ace maybe 75% - 80% of the time here making him 35% to win just on that |
I hate to be nit-picky... no wait, I don't. I love to be nit-picky. But a naked ace of hearts is significantly better than 35% to win here. Not trying to be a dick here, but I think it's important to note (at worst, it's about 42.5%. If he's got Ah Jx, Ah Qx, etc, it's almost dead even. )
| Quote: | | if he has a king and the ace of hearts, you are super screwed right now |
Yeah, talk about being behind... blech. And it's not too unlikely. AhAx is even worse.
| Quote: | it seems like a losing call ... when you're ahead in the hand you're not very far ahead and will stop lose the pot a decent amount of times, when you're behind you'll almost never win the hand
but let the NL ring game players speak their reasoning and show me why my super-conservative advice is wrong :D |
I wouldn't say that when we're behind, we're way behind. We have significant amounts of equity versus a lot of hands we're 'behind' to.
KTs, we win 42%.
KsQc we win 40%
AsAd we win 43%
AsKs we win 44%
Even against a set of Tens, we win 36% ish.
We need to win the pot >~42% of the time to make it worthwhile to call.
So against some of those hands we're behind, it's worth a call. It's not that large of a mistake to call even if he's got a set of tens.
Now, we win probably ~ 55% of the time that he's got the Ah without a King to go with, or without a paired ace. And when we fold, it's not a bank-breaking mistake.
We pull it out about 30% of the time he's got a set of kings, and...
And life sucks when he's got AhKx, or AhAx. This is really what TheSalche was referring to, obviously.
We rule, hard, when he's bluffing, or has JhJx, or something like that. But that doesn't happen a whole lot.
Given his range preflop, and the fact that he instapushed on the flop, and the fact that we don't have a solid enough read to figure out why he'd donk-push the flop on us, this is a tricky ass decision. My drunk self thinks that I would probably run through this thought process at the table:
"80% of the time we're about 50/50 to win. 20% of the time, we're about 9 to 1 underdogs. Math math math math that out, and it equals precisely 42%. Ya know, I haven't seen the movie "The Princess Bride" in at least 2 years. Inconceivable! INCONCEIVABLE! Shut up dealer, I know it's my turn to act. What do I have again? Oh, I see the queen of hearts. I call. Why not."
It's sure a close one though, and almost impossible for me to make a solid decision without having experience in this specific game, or against this specific player, etc. For instance, folding is probably right against ScanX, and calling is undoubtedly correct (and massively profitable) if somebody like me, or Supa, is the villain.
Posted Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:04 pm GMT by TheSalche
i feel so pwned and violated
nice post snoog
Posted Wed Nov 02, 2005 6:40 pm GMT by TxShadow
So what did you do??
Posted Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:01 am GMT by traz
I folded and villain showed Ah-10. We rabbit chased, and a heart came on the turn, so he would have won.
It was just an interesting hand to me, thanks for the responses 
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