Posted Mon Nov 07, 2005 1:47 pm GMT by AHBrownell
If you are using the rule of 4, and have 13 outs or more, should you call any size bet on the flop?
I believe I have calculated the pot odds required to be less than 1, because your odds to win are greater than 50%. This is impossible - so should you always call any size bet if you are 100% that you will win if any of your 13+ outs hit?
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Posted Mon Nov 07, 2005 6:45 pm GMT by Adam Marshall
It's actually 14 outs on the flop to have over a 50% chance of winning. The higher the number of outs, the more inaccurate the % is, although it's never really far off.
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds_chart.php
I guess if that's the way you want to play, you could push/call there every time. Naturally, there are other factors.
Posted Mon Nov 07, 2005 8:00 pm GMT by bluef0x
Depends.
First off you'd have to be 100% certain those outs are clean. 100%.
Second, if it's a cash game- sure, personally I'd want to be more than a 51% favorite though just in case not all my outs are clean... if it's a tournament on the bubble I fold. The reason is I can exploit the other stacks rather than taking a coinflip. If stacks are even between 3 of us and the bigstack is 2x our stack, I'll fold AK all day long when he goes all-in...
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:15 pm GMT by galderon
Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly is a "clean" out?
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 3:49 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| galderon wrote: | | Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly is a "clean" out? |
Example would be an open-ended straight draw. On a suited flop, you have 8 outs, but only 6 of them are "clean." Two of them could complete a flush for another player.
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 3:59 pm GMT by bluef0x
3d-4d-5s flop. You hold Ac-6c. You put your opponent on top pair... so you're counting your outs as:
4 twos for a straight
4 sevens for a straight
3 aces for top pair
3 sixes for top pair
So you're thinking you have 14 outs, but not all of them may be "clean"
What if he holds 5d,6d? Then you only have
3 twos for a straight to TIE
3 sevens for a straight to TIE (the other seven gives him a flush)
2 aces for top pair (other ace gives him flush)
0 sixes help you (gives him two pair)
Notice you only have 4 outs now...
That's an extreme example but hopefully you get the idea, you can't be counting all your outs for your straight when the other guy is drawing to a flush, etc. So for you to call any size bet on 14 outs you'd have to be very, very sure that all your outs are clean.
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 4:15 pm GMT by galderon
Thanks guys, that makes a lot of sense.
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 4:49 pm GMT by traz
As others have said, an out that isn't "clean" means that it would help you, but help your opponent more.
Would you call AK preflop everytime? Its a similar situation...Some people will call any raise with AK, some people will fold given some reads.
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 6:26 pm GMT by AHBrownell
If you do have clean outs or even if you discount a bit... is it the correct play to call a push?
Example:
Gutshot Straight Flush with Two Overcards
You hold A  K . Flop comes J T 6  .
Any A, K, Q, or heart. likely gives you the best hand. If you discount the A and K to 1 out each rather than 3 each. That gives you 1 + 1 + 4 + 8 = 14 outs. Would you call a bet of say 10x the pot with this hand? How about 100X the pot? 500X the pot? etc.
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 7:00 pm GMT by bluef0x
you could.. and you'd almost break even over the long-run. It's very read-dependent I think.. I'd probably want a little more outs or put an opponent on a good range.
Posted Tue Nov 08, 2005 7:31 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Often when you have a strong draw it can be good to be the one doing the pushing/betting. But you have to assess your opponent and range him on hands like Bluef0x said. Also pay close attention to the flop. Some flops are more dangerous than others.
Your JT-rag flop can bring you in trouble because JJ,TT, JT,AJ,QJ,KJ, AT and KQ are hands that may to be with you on the flop. I would actually like your flush draw with overs better _without_ the gutshot straight draw. Ofcourse, you don't win in poker by going around seing monsters in the closet, but it helps to realize that they may be there. 
But you hit the flop hard, so do a continuation bet and hope to take it down.
Posted Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:40 am GMT by AHBrownell
Well looking at the flop I mentioned I could see AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 66, JT, or T6 going all in here. With a preflop raise its unlikely you'd see AA, KK, or QQ without a preflop reraise. JJ, TT, JTs, and maybe 66 would likely call a pre-flop raise. JTos and T6 would likely have folded before the flop.
So against a pre-flop reraise you are probably in decent shape - AA, KK, QQ are all ahead, but you have at least 12 outs and as many as 16. You may be behind, but you are a slight underdog or if you are lucky, a decent favorite.
Against a pre-flop call you are likely against JJ, TT, JTs, and maybe 66 - either a set or two pair. Here you have at least 11 outs and as many as 12. You are only a slight underdog.
I would think if you factor in the possibility of a bluff, semi-bluff, or overbet with top pair (ie AJ or KJ) you have a decent shot at this pot. Am I correct in this analysis?
Posted Wed Nov 09, 2005 3:07 am GMT by snoogins47
| AHBrownell wrote: | If you are using the rule of 4, and have 13 outs or more, should you call any size bet on the flop?
I believe I have calculated the pot odds required to be less than 1, because your odds to win are greater than 50%. This is impossible - so should you always call any size bet if you are 100% that you will win if any of your 13+ outs hit? |
If you're better than 50% to win, and you're heads up, you're getting a positive return on every dollar put into the pot. But yes, if you're in a cash game and you're somehow positive that you're 50% or better to win heads up, you should call any bet your opponent throws at you. That doesn't mean that letting him bet, or pushing yourself, or anything else, is the best play, but if we just have three conditions in a cash game:
We certainly have a 50+% chance to win the pot
The pot is heads up
Our opponent has gone all in
Then yes, calling is correct.
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