can't find a good odds calc. online |
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Posted Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:24 pm GMT by bristol2
i want to figure out if im holding a 10c 5s and there is 2 4 7 flop and 10 turn, and my hunch (based on checks and tells) is that I have the high pair.
what are the odds of the other player having a 10 10, 10 J, 10 Q, or 10 K, or 10 A.
I lost in a turnament to 10 J, thinking I had top pair.
the only odds calculators i can find ask me what the other players have, I just want to know my odds according to the flop, river, and turn.
thanks alot
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Posted Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:42 pm GMT by supafrey
1. The information you will get on this will be limited. This is not usually something people want to know.
2. The reason people DON'T usually want to know this is because it is useless. It doesn't matter what the odds of someone having this actually are - you must use their actions to determine whether they have it in this particular instance.
Posted Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:19 am GMT by Muck
There are rare times when you can get away with this maths/logic.
E.g. Your holding KK preflop, you raise and someone comes back over the top with a re-raise. You think “I’m only behind to AA and the action suggests that’s a possibility, but its so unlikely I’ll go for it”.
When you have this many hands:
| bristol2 wrote: |
what are the odds of the other player having a 10 10, 10 J, 10 Q, or 10 K, or 10 A.
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You can’t just play odds. This would only work if (who knows why) your opponent was playing without looking at his card.
You can think of poker like a story.
A guys raises preflop UTG. His position and the size of the raise say “I have strength”. It folds around to someone OTB who calls, saying “I have position let’s see what the flop brings”. The blinds fold, saying “even with the odds that’s too much action”.
The flop comes A82. The player UTG bets pot, saying “I’ve hit my ace”.
If the player OTB has KK and thinks “There are 47 unknown cards, 3 are aces. That means there’s only a 15/1 chance he has an ace and I’m getting 3/1 from the pot. Easy call.” there is a flaw.
Do you see what I'm getting at?
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:34 am GMT by bristol2
thanks for the replies. I agree that you don't just play on probabilities, but you play based on the emotion and moves of the opponent. i have heard of the odds calculated by the number of cards you don't see, (47) and the number of "outs" (3 aces). I will try to remember that more when i play.
However, my pair of tens on the turn felt strong to me since checks went all around on the flop. then I went all in thinking, those were the only combinations someone could haveover my pair of 10s, another 10 and a higher kicker. And of course he had 10 J and i blew it...I raised all in to push everyone out, but also having a "decent" hand for a showdown.
next time i think bet lower, and see if theres a reraise, then re assess the possibility...
it sounds like, the basic mathamatical probability doesn't mean much since the probability changes as the oppenent checks, calls, or raises.
thanks for the help.
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 10:06 am GMT by Muck
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not knocking maths as an important aspect of poker. You just have to be careful where and how you apply it. Check out Sklansky book “The Theory of Poker” for some very good explanations of on this.
Anyway as far as your hand is concerned I can’t comment without some more information:
What position are you?
How much are the blinds?
How many players are in the hand?
How much does each player have?
What suits were the board cards?
How much was your all-in bet?
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