Making drawing hands fold. |
|
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:22 pm GMT by AHBrownell
So I have read more than once that a good bet against a dangerous flop (with a straight or flush draw) is 2/3 the pot to a full pot bet.
If you have a flush draw you have about 36% to hit your hand on the flop + turn combined. If you have a open-ended or double-gut shot straight draw you have about 32% to hit your hand on the flop + turn combined.
If an opponent is betting 2/3x or 1x the pot they are giving you odds to call?
Example:
Hero holds:
A  K 
Hero raises 3x BB to $1.50.
Both blinds call. (Pot is now 4.50)
Flop: K  7  2
Situation 1)
Both players check to the Hero.
Hero bets 2/3 pot: 3.00 (Pot is now 7.50)
Player after him folds.
Next player calls after calculating the pot odds to be 2.5:1 (He requires 2:1 on his flush draw)
Situation 2)
Both players check to the Hero.
Hero bets 1x pot: 4.50 (Pot is now 9.00)
Player after him folds.
Next player calls after calculating the pot odds to be 2:1 (He requires 2:1 on his flush draw)
So basically I do not completely understand why betting these amounts would be considered the "correct" play... Anyone care to explain?
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:35 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| AHBrownell wrote: | Situation 1)
Both players check to the Hero.
Hero bets 2/3 pot: 3.00 (Pot is now 7.50)
Player after him folds.
Next player calls after calculating the pot odds to be 2.5:1 (He requires 2:1 on his flush draw)
Situation 2)
Both players check to the Hero.
Hero bets 1x pot: 4.50 (Pot is now 9.00)
Player after him folds.
Next player calls after calculating the pot odds to be 2:1 (He requires 2:1 on his flush draw)
So basically I do not completely understand why betting these amounts would be considered the "correct" play... Anyone care to explain? |
You're missing the fact that you are only 4:1 to make your hand on the next card. If you call a pot sized bet on the flop and miss, it's expected you'll have to call a 2/3 pot or larger bet on the turn to see the river. Once again, you won't be getting 4:1 on that call either. That's where implied odds come in, meaning "Can I get the extra money I need to make this call profitable into the pot after I make my hand?"
Note: this would be better suited for the Odds & Probability section.
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:52 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Thanks. And I will make an effort to post this sort of post in the correct place next time!
Okay then...
What type of judgment can you make here? Lets say a player bets 2/3 the pot - if it is actually correct to fold if the implied odds = 0... how do you assess these odds?
If you are staring at the nut flush draw with 2.5:1 pot odds to call how much is reasonable expectation that is implied if you do hit on the turn or river?
When betting to protect top pair with a draw on the board, if you think your opponent is making decisions based on implied odds how much should you incrementally increase your bet sizes?
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:32 pm GMT by suitedaces84
It depends on stack sizes, your table image, your history with your oppoent and what kind of player they are. For example, if the pot is $1, you have $100 behind your oppoent has you covered it would be silly to fold a nut flush draw even if he bets $2-4. If you can only stack him one in five times, never make anything when you don't stack him and never get to see the river it will still be worth it to call.
As for defending against those evil drawers: don't overbet your hand without a good reason to (being up agaisnt a terrible player who won't fold anything or a maniac or something along those lines). For example, let's say I flop TPTK in a small pot, I overbet the pot by a mile. I'll I've really done is make a donation to monster hands 'cause I'm not getting anything out of a worse hand, which is the point of betting with a good hand.
This is why it's so important to raise preflop with strong hands. Besides the obvious reason, which is value, it makes the hand much easier to play post flop. If you can get 5% of your stack in preflop, you can be a reasonable amount (relative to the pot) on the flop and your oppoents' implied odds will be much worse.
Posted Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:42 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| AHBrownell wrote: | | What type of judgment can you make here? Lets say a player bets 2/3 the pot - if it is actually correct to fold if the implied odds = 0... how do you assess these odds? |
It depends very much on what you read the other player to hold. If you have two overcards to the board along with your flush draw, you could have has many as 15 outs: 9 for your flush and 6 for top pair. If he's holding a set with the offsuit card, your outs drop to 8 (7 on the turn, if you both miss). If opponent is also betting with a flush draw, you may already be ahead with high card!
| AHBrownell wrote: | | If you are staring at the nut flush draw with 2.5:1 pot odds to call how much is reasonable expectation that is implied if you do hit on the turn or river? |
All depends on your read of the other player in the pot, and how much money they have left behind. If they're weak-tight, it's unlikely you'll get much more out of them if they're only holding top pair on a three flush board.
| AHBrownell wrote: | | When betting to protect top pair with a draw on the board, if you think your opponent is making decisions based on implied odds how much should you incrementally increase your bet sizes? |
Bet size isn't all there is to it. What I mention in the second example is just as meaningful when you're the bettor. If your opponent doesn't feel they can get more out of you when they hit, they may fold to a "normal" bet. If they're tilting and a little short-stacked, they might call regardless of odds. As for making your bets larger, there are too many variations of stack size/pot size to even begin to outline such a strategy, or if it would even be profitable to try to play in that manner.
In all cases, experience will help you more than any rules I can throw out here.
|
|
