Posted Sat Dec 10, 2005 8:45 pm GMT by ukboxer1978
I recently came across a strategy for playing betfairs poker game. Not the actual playing poker but the odds game.
Its simple laying the last winning and should that hand win again simplely increasing your next lay until you win and over time you will make a profit as one single hand cannot consistantly win over and over again as there are 4 hands that are in play.
I would be intertested in anyones opinion on this??    
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Posted Sat Dec 10, 2005 8:58 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Is it like a martingale? increasing bets if you lose?
- Martingale doesn't work.
- Playing the house is -EV.
- I don't quite get the 'one hand can't win consistently over time'. If 5 choices has an equal chance to win, they have an equal chance to win, end of story, doesn't matter which one you chose.
Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:47 am GMT by Muck
Just a few things to support what tame_deuces said.
I think this is indeed a version of the Martingale system. Although the poster maybe coming at it from a different perspective, that of the person offering odds rather than taking them. Either way it doesn’t matter, it still hinges on the gamblers fallacy.
However this is even worse than roulette.
With roulette you’re getting 2/1 on Black or Red. So your bets go up as so; 1, 2, 4, 8, 16...
With BetFair Poker Exchange you’re getting 38/10 on any Hand. So your lays have to go up as so; 1; 4; 16; 64; 256...
ukboxer1978 I suggested you read up on odds and probability.
If you look at this thread you’ll see that all of the odds offered on BetFair Poker Exchange are –EV (unfairly stacked against you).
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